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Terrorism Notes
- Look for the Bush Administration to find an excuse to
use the forces arrayed against Afghanistan to topple Iraq's Saddam (or at least
punish his military severely). While there are many links between bin Laden
followers and Iraqi intelligence, none of these appear to be related to the 11
September attacks.
- It appears likely that the plane that hit the
Pentagon was in fact intended to do so. (There has been speculation that this
plane was targeted on the White House or capital.) The plane never entered the
restricted air zone and its 270-degree turn seems to have been intended to slow
down and lose altitude to set up the proper glide path for a Pentagon
attack.
- The Pentagon is a huge building, and has been rebuilt,
refurbished, and remodeled (in rotating stages) since it was completed at the
end of World War II. Not surprisingly, the newly renovated sections did better
in the aftermath of the attack that sections that have not been reworked in
recent decades. The water sprinklers in older areas are not up to code, and the
fire spread into those areas. Areas which had the fire sprinklers upgraded
tended to survive. Some of the building's windows have been replaced by blast
proof laminated types. In the original construction, the military used the
minimum amount of steel (which was in short supply due to the war); renovated
sections were rebuilt with more steel (and with steel columns wrapped with
composite sheets to cut down on fragmentation) and survived better.
- The
Bush Administration apparently plans to eliminate the al Qaeda bases in
Afghanistan and then to proceed on a multi-year campaign to track down and
eliminate other terrorist groups and bases.
- On alert for action are
four battalions of Marines (the two we usually keep at sea and the next two in
rotation who were sent to sea early) and four Army Divisions of the XVIII
Airborne Corps (10th Mountain, 3rd Mechanized, 82nd Airborne, 101st Air
Assault). One company which provides spare parts for trucks saw its daily
requests for emergency spare parts deliveries go from an average of one per day
to 53 on one Monday. The Pentagon hints that entire brigades of conventional
troops could establish "armed bastions" inside Afghanistan from which special
forces would conduct months of raids against guerrillas frantically trying to
avoid discovery.
- Bankruptcy for airlines is covered by special rules
that do not apply in other cases. In most bankruptcies, the company can keep
using leased equipment it cannot make payments on. This is not the case for
airlines; those who have leased planes to airlines or who have liens on such
aircraft can confiscate them 61 days after payments are missed if those payments
are not made. The problem is that in the current situation, anyone who
repossessed an aircraft would have a hard time finding someone else to lease it.
Expect a round of negotiations between airlines, leasing companies, and the
government's checkbook.
- China has warned that it will not allow a UN
resolution against terrorism unless it also covers Taiwan and Tibet. The Bush
Administration has shown little interest in a UN endorsement, preferring instead
to build a coalition outside of the UN.
- The US has issued demands for
Lebanon and Syria to turn over a long list of those suspected of previous
terrorist attacks. The US also wants Hezbollah disarmed if not
disbanded.
- India's offer of overflights and even the use of bases (in
exchange for an end of sanctions) has another motive. Half of the "rebels" in
Kashmir are in fact non-Kashmiri fighters from all over the Middle East who were
trained in Afghanistan. A US attack on Afghanistan could inspire many of these
to go back there.
- The big risk is in Pakistan. If that country (which
has nuclear weapons and theater-range missiles) came under control of a
fundamentalist government friendly to bin Laden, the problems would get much
worse. The Pakistani people admire bin Laden (Osama is the most popular name for
newborn boys) and little love for their own military government.
- The
US is calling up tens of thousands of reservists. Not surprisingly, anyone who
speaks Arabic is high on the list. Also high on the list are Marine Force Recon,
anyone with a psychology degree, and intelligence specialists.
- The
Kosovo War left the Air Force short of precision-guided weapons. FYEO reported
before the 11 September attacks that the Air Force was dipping into war reserve
stocks of these munitions in order to maintain minimal training. Worse, the
companies that make these weapons cannot rapidly increase production as doing so
requires hiring a second shift for the factories.
- Congress is starting
to complain that the intelligence community is not providing it with as much
juicy data as it wants, and strongly suspects that the spooks do not trust
Congress to keep a secret.
- Many do not understand how commercial
aircraft are tracked. Low-powered radar (which is not strong enough to pick up a
reflection or "skin paint") triggers the aircraft's transponder, which then
radios to the ground the identification of the aircraft. The return signal is
strong enough to give the ground station a location for the aircraft. The US air
traffic control system assumes that if the transponder on an airliner stops
working, the aircraft is having mechanical or electrical problems and will land
at the most convenient airport.
- General Aviation (i.e, private planes)
are not being allowed to fly on Visual Flight Rules (which allow the planes to
move around at will) but only on Instrument Flight Rules (where ground
controllers at least keep a list of what planes are moving around).
-
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has decided that a fuel-filled airliner
meets the definition of a "weapon of mass destruction" (WMD), a definition
normally reserved for nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. In theory, the
US (which doesn't have chemical or biological weapons) regards the use of any
WMD as justification for the US to use nuclear weapons in response, although it
is unclear if the FEMA definition is binding on US military policy.
- The
Bush Administration told Russia that the 11 Sept attacks made it more likely,
rather than less likely, that it would formally cancel the ABM treaty.
-
There is a research facility at bin Laden's Abu Khahab Camp north of Jalalabad
(Afghanistan) where experiments with chemical and biological weapons are
conducted. Satellite photos showed dead dogs tied to poles, presumably used as
experimental test subjects. The camp has been abandoned in the last few
days.
--Stephen V Cole
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