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Calculating Terror
A quip made by terrorists to the government pursuing them
sums up the anti-terrorism situation quite well, "we can make many mistakes, you
only have to make one." Meaning that the terrorists can fail many times, but the
government anti-terrorism actions need fail only once to produce a spectacular
act of terrorism. Terrorists also know that governments usually lack the resolve
to come after them in a big way. Going after terrorists means arresting and
disturbing a lot of people as you seek to smoke out the bad guys hiding amongst
a generally innocent population. In the case of Islamic terrorists, attacks
against the West, the feeling is that retaliation will probably aid the
terrorists cause by hurting or disturbing innocent Moslems and increasing the
enthusiasm for the terrorist's cause. It is, in the end, a matter of will and
resolve. Islamic terrorists like Bin Laden and is ilk believe that "too
much ain't enough." Being on a mission from God, and seeing several decades of
failed anti-terrorism measures, why not try anything? If American responds with
massive force and many innocent Moslems die, all the better. In effect, Bin
Laden feels he can't lose. But can Bin Laden really expect to win? Bin Laden's
principal goals are the elimination of corrupt governments in Islamic nations
and replacing them with religious leaders. These leaders of Moslem nations feel
a particular vulnerability, for American military or anti-terrorism action in
their nations could trigger large scale civil unrest and civil war. Will the
leaders of these Moslem nations continue to tolerate the presence of terrorists?
The terrorists depend on a lot of people doing what's in their immediate best
interests. So far this has worked. But the United States is also faced
with a unique situation. Never before have so many Americans been killed in one
attack. With nearly 5,000 Americans dead or missing (and presumed dead), this
exceeds the highest previous death tolls of Americans. For example, the entire
American Revolution (April 19, 1775-Oct. 18, 1781) left only: 4,435 Americans
dead from enemy action. The 1941 Pearl Harbor killed only 2,388. The D-Day (June
6, 1944) killed only 4,900 Americans. The five week campaign for Iwo Jima in
1945) killed only 6,503. The four month Tet Offensive in1968 killed only 7,040.
Some 60 other nations lost over 2,000 people on September 11th. Some nations
lost hundreds of their citizens, and they are unhappy. The September 11 attacks
were not just an increase in terrorist activity, but an enormous change. Over
the last five years, only 13 Americans a year were killed by terrorist activity.
From 1995-2000, only 15 acts of international terrorism occurred in the United
States, compared to nearly 500 attacks a year for the entire world. Americans
thought they were relatively safe from international terrorism. No more. But
will this unique situation provide the popular will to sustain a "War on
Terrorism?" That's hard to say, for Americans have never been known for
sustained enthusiasm for a war effort. In the four "long wars" America has been
in (American Civil War, World War II, Korea, Vietnam), enthusiasm fell big time
after about three years. The War on Terrorism will last a lot longer than that,
and already the "it's America's fault" stories are beginning to appear. Without
a constant stream of war stories, as with the earlier four wars, it may not be
possible to keep enthusiasm for a war often fought in the shadows and killing
innocent (or somewhat innocent) civilians. It will be more of a propaganda war
than any in the past. But terrorists have been rooted out in the past,
but before the creation of mass media. That makes a difference, where there are
polling services taking almost daily votes on whatever is done. The terrorists
are not democrats, but they do depend on numbers, large numbers, of followers to
support their cause. The democratic Western nations are on a shorter leash. A
few weeks of poor polling for anti-terror activities and the war would be over,
at least until the next spectacular terror attack. Predictions of the
outcome of this war are very speculative, for there are few comparisons to past
events (and those are shaky). Be ready for a long ride, in a dark tunnel, with
an unknown destination somewhere out there.
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