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The Battlefield Countries
The war on terrorism is going to
be fought most dangerously in Moslem nations containing populations with many
pro-Bin Laden people. Rounding up suspected terrorists in non-Moslem countries
is relatively risk free, even when the terrorists are living in Moslem
neighborhoods. But Moslem nations are less stable and often the majority of the
people are not happy with their own government. Bin Laden’s principal grievance
is not the United States, but the corrupt rulers of Moslem nations. Countries
like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Algeria,
and Iraq will be dangerous, diplomatically and militarily, to root out
terrorists. But each of these nations is a special case because of local
conditions. Egypt is seen, in the Islamic world as the senior state, if
only because of it’s large population and ancient civilization. But Egypt has
made a difficult transition to democracy and economic prosperity. Corruption and
poverty are found in great abundance. This produces thousands of recruits for
terrorist organizations. The government has been strong enough to fight the
local terrorists to a standstill. But as more graduates of the Bin Laden
training camps come in, with more effective terror techniques, money and
weapons, the terrorists are liable to become more of a threat once more. Egypt
would like some help in dealing with its terrorists, but accepting American aid
against anti-government terrorists is politically risky. The population is
inflamed over the year long battle between Palestinian militants and the
Israelis. America is seen as Israel’s ally. Egypt wants to join the war on
terrorism, but not at the cost of inflaming a revolution against the government.
The Egyptians would prefer that we just get rid of the Bin Laden organization
outside of Egypt and provide very discreet assistance inside of Egypt. This
situation is typical of many Moslem nations under attack by Bin Laden
associates. Saudi Arabia is, ironically, the source of many of the major
players in the war on terrorism. Osama Bin Laden comes from here, as do many of
his key lieutenants. The Taliban were created by Saudi religious instructors
working in Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia also provides many of
the volunteers for Bin Laden’s training camps, and many of these have gone on to
carry out suicide attacks. The royal family is one of Bin Laden’s primary
targets. Bin Laden wants to turn Saudi Arabia into an Islamic Republic.
Naturally, the Al Saud family does not want to be replaced by a committee of
Islamic clerics. But at the same time, the Al Sauds have held onto their power
by showing remarkable ability to make deals with both religious conservatives
and liberal technocrats. But this furious survival dance limits how much they
can crack down on terrorists. The government cannot afford to offend too many
people. The idea that Western influences are a menace to Islam is popular in
Saudi Arabia, so the government has to at least appear to be in tune with
current Islamic thinking. If they ignore this, there could be a revolution.
There has been terrorism in Saudi Arabia, and the government has responded
forcefully. Remember, Saudi Arabia is the only country that still executes
criminals with public beheadings. Jordan also has it’s local terrorists,
but these groups are very much on the defensive. Jordan has a special problem in
that half the population are Palistinians and the Palestinians are most
interested in the conflict in Israel, not international terrorism. Moreover, the
royal family of Jordan (the Hashimites, who trace their descent from the prophet
Mohammed) and are very capable. The current king, Abdullah (who has an American
step-mother), like his father Hussein, is pro-Western and manages to balance
this with the needs of the Bedouins who are his most loyal subjects. While not a
police state, the king runs a tight ship. When the Palestinians got out of hand
in the 1970s, the Jordanian army (mostly Bedouins) drove out the Palestinian
militants with great loss of life. Jordan repaired relations with the
Palestinians and has an informal arrangement where by some anti-Israeli activity
is allowed as long as there is no unrest in Jordan. Jordanian intelligence
agencies have long worked with their counterparts in the West and this will
probably continue during the war on terrorism. Syria has long been a
sanctuary for terrorists, mainly as part of it's support for Palestinians and
it's ally Iran. This terrorism support has long a part of Syrian foreign policy.
Syria also controls most of Lebanon, where many Iranian supported terrorist
groups have their bases. In the last ten years, Syria has tried to pull back
from it's terrorist supports, mainly because the demise of the Soviet Union has
removed financial and political support for the Syrian dictatorship. Since Syria
is a police state, there are no terrorist groups that are any threat to the
government. Syria has agreed to join the war on terrorism, but it's uncertain if
this pledge will have any tangible results.
Israel has long had
problems with Palestinian, Lebanese and some Israeli, terrorists. Only in the
last year has it seen suicide bombers. Hammas is the largest of several
Palestinian terrorist groups in Israel, with Iranian backed Hizbollah in
Lebanon. Hammas has specialized in terror attacks on Israeli civilians in
Israeli neighborhoods while Hizbollah's constant attacks in Lebanon finally
convinced Israel to pull out. Israel has formidable counter-terrorism resources.
Although Israel has not been able to prevent terrorist attacks, it has stopped
many of them. It's intelligence system and used of targeted attacks on terror
group leaders have hurt the terrorist groups more than any other nations
anti-terror operations. Israel has long cooperated with America in anti-terror
operations. The enormity of the September 11 attacks has isolated groups like
Hammas and weakened them somewhat. Hammas has long had some connections with Bin
Laden, but has largely stuck to operations within Israel. However, Palestinians
have been found participating in terror operations outside the Middle
East. Afghanistan became involved with international terrorism as a
result of the Russian invasion in 1979. Afghan resistance to the Russians drew
devout fighters from all over the Moslem world who saw the fight as a struggle
between Islam and Godless communism. When the Russians left in the late 1980s,
and the communist Afghan government defeated in 1992, the various resistance
factions fought each other until a religion based faction (the Taliban) entered
the civil war and captured Kabul (the largest city in the country) in 1996. The
Taliban recruits came from religious schools set up in refugee camps in Pakistan
by devout (and fundamentalist) Moslems from Saudi Arabia. The Taliban have never
comprised more than about one percent of the population and have to attract
foreign Moslems to fill out their combat units. The thousands of very devout,
and very foreign, Moslems in Afghanistan provided an opportunity to create
training camps for international terrorists and this is what Osama Bin Laden
did. Actually, some of these camps were in Pakistan (in the areas occupied by
millions of Afghan refugees.) Pakistan forced Bin Laden over the border into
Afghanistan, but the camps remain a recruiting ground for the Taliban. Within
Afghanistan, anyone who identifies with international terrorism is seen as an
Islamic hero. Officially, the government says it has nothing to do with
terrorism, but it tolerates it because the Taliban and the terrorists share so
many attitudes towards Islam and the West. Pakistan has long been home to
several factions of radical Islam. The most intense issue is Indian occupation
of Kashmir and it's majority Moslem population. This cause is very popular in
Pakistan and has made it easy for the Islamic radicals to recruit, raise money
and operate. There are many radical groups, and they sometimes fight each other
over religious or ethnic differences. And it gets worse. In the northwest there
are Pushtun tribes, which have always been a problem for the central government
(and before that, for the British colonial government). The largest ethnic group
in Afghanistan are Pushtuns (40 percent of the population) and most of the two
million Afghan refugees in Pakistani camps are Pushtun. The Taliban is largely
Pushtun and the Taliban control the Pakistan refugee camps more than the
Pakistani government does. As a result, the activities of Islamic radicals and
Pushtuns (both natives and refugees) in the northwest have caused much unrest
and instability within Pakistan. This has made it difficult to institute
government and economic reforms. The current military government is determined
to crack down on the radicals and the refugees. Several months ago, the
government began to crack down on the radicals, and have long been trying to get
the Afghan refugees to return home. Pakistan’s willingness to actively support
an anti-terrorist campaign is based on the government’s ongoing struggle against
the radicals and Taliban. Although it was the Pakistani army intelligence people
who allowed, and encouraged, the formation of the Taliban in the refugee camps,
they have come to regret it. Initially, the Taliban were seen as a force to
bring peace to Afghanistan. This they largely did, but at the cost of providing
sanctuary and bases for terrorists. But the government risks massive unrest if
American troops are allowed to operate in Pakistan. Alas, it’s a situation where
the government is dammed if they do, and damned if they don’t. Algeria
fought a bloody war of liberation from French rule in the 1950s and early 60s.
When the French left, the rebel leaders were elected to run the government. They
liked the job and wouldn’t leave. Corruption and economic decline followed. This
is the kind of situation that Bin Laden preaches against and in the early 1990s
graduates of the Bin Laden camps began to show up in Algeria to lead a rebellion
of Islamic radicals against the government. This was compounded by the
government’s refusal to recognize the results of an election that would have put
the radicals in power. The government’s rationale was that the Islamic radicals
would never allow another election. Whatever the case, the population got tired
to the Islamic radicals after about five years, mainly because the radicals main
form of combat was to slaughter civilians (often by slitting throats) seen as
disloyal to the radical’s cause. Even though an amnesty got 6,000 radicals to
surrender, thousands more fight on. Many of the Algerian radicals have been
involved in international terrorism. The government is eager to cooperate with
an international war on terrorism. Iraq has long offered support for
international terrorism. Their motive was not the support of Islam, but the
restoration of Arab power in the Middle East. Dictator Saddam Hussein also sees
terrorism the same way the Soviet Union did; a cheap way to keep his enemies off
balance. Unfortunately, Saddam has not been able to completely help this ongoing
assistance for terrorists and this may lead to another coalition invasion, this
time all the way to Baghdad. Libya was once a hospitable place for
terrorists, but the government has backed away from that policy since American
bombers hit the country in 1986. While not terrorist free, Libya has signed on
to the war on terrorism.
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