How the September 11 Terrorist Attacks Succeeded

The September 11 terrorist attacks depended on three things to succeed. First, the Bin Laden organization was capable of recruiting, screening and training men capable of carrying out the multiple aircraft hijackings. This is a difficult and exacting task. But it’s known that Bin Laden has recruited many able lieutenants and implemented efficient procedures to support successful terrorist operations. This requires people with technical and managerial skills and discipline. The key to a successful operation is thorough reconnaissance (collecting information), careful planning and willingness to walk away if it look like it won’t work.

Second, unless you have the kind of hyper airport security the Israeli’s use, these kinds of hijackings are still possible. Consider that the September 11 hijackers didn’t use guns. They smuggled small knives and things like box cutters that can be easily hidden the clutter of carry on luggage. Since these are suicide terrorists, they possess a fierceness that is difficult for passengers and flight crew to deal with. Back in the 1970s, “sky marshals” (armed security personnel) were put on commercial flights. But one sky marshal would not be a guarantee that half a dozen terrorists could not take over an aircraft. There will probably be proposals to put even more sturdy doors on cockpits and something like a small video camera outside the door so the pilots can see what’s happening in the passenger compartment. To institute the Israeli type of airport security would be very expensive, and objectionable to some (the profiling would be very hard on anyone who appeared to be Middle Eastern.)

Third, the internet and more powerful encryption have made it much easier for terrorists to communicate. In the past, it was much easier to pick up phone messages or intercept mail and couriers. But new, industrial strength encryption, easily available on the internet, makes it much more difficult for US intelligence organizations to decode terrorist messages. Since there are thousands of messages captured that might be from terrorists, the longer it takes to crack them, the more time the terrorists will have to operate undetected. The combination of disciplined terrorists and secure encrypted internet communications allows planning to proceed undetected.

Bin Laden’s success in the past has attracted more recruits. His financial resources enables him to maintain (pay) staff and make payments to the families of suicide terrorists (which also encourages more recruits.) The success of the September 11th attacks will bring in more recruits. Bin Laden’s training camps in Afghanistan (and other camps in Iran) continue to operate. As things stand now, more such attacks could be in the works and ready to be carried out any time in the future. In response, there probably will be more detailed searches of carry on baggage (and limits on how much can be carried on) as well as increased use of profiling.

Books by James Dunnigan