Buying Iraq - A possibly surreal invasion
by Tom Holsinger
September 30, 2002

Our invasion of Iraq might degenerate into farce if, as seems increasingly likely, there is little resistance and advancing American forces are swarmed by waiting Western newsmen. It would be delicious if American troops nearing Baghdad are greeted by Peter Arnett with a rented Iraqi brass band playing Hail To The Chief. The surrealism would be complete if bidding wars erupt over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) between terrorists, newsmen and various intelligence organizations before American troops arrive. Some countries' spooks, including ours, will be busy eliminating embarrassing evidence (and witnesses) of their governments' support of Iraqi tyrant Saddam Hussein and/or how they provided him with some of the WMD everyone is looking for.

Our objective is to secure Iraq's WMD before those are obtained by terrorists (regime change follows our occupation), but we're handicapped by inadequate intelligence on just where those are - we'd bomb them if we did know. It is unlikely, though, that Saddam will give WMD to terrorists until just before or as we attack, so our best chance of securing those is to overrun the place before the terrorists can move their new weapons over the border.

This means our forces must move, incredibly fast, as soon as the attack begins to seize WMD sites and terrorist escape routes. They must take great risks doing this because more than the security of American forces is at stake. Soldiers die so that civilians don't - a detail which has escaped senior military planners but not their civilian superiors, notably the one who wants to be re-elected.

Our counter-proliferation teams will need every advantage they can get while taking these risks, and their most pressing need is for intelligence concerning the locations of WMD and foreign terrorists. Unconventional ways exist of getting this information, notably by buying it. We outbid terrorists for Afghan militias, and bribes will probably be more important in conquering Iraq. Money is not our only offer - protection, visas and the Witness Relocation Program will all be useful. WMD sites are controlled by Saddam's more trusted henchmen, all of whom fear local vengeance, and many face prosecution as war criminals. America has an excellent record concerning such needs.

Japanese scientists who conducted Dr. Mengele-style biological warfare experiments on involuntary human subjects during World War Two (including on American prisoners of war) were protected from subsequent prosecution in exchange for teaching us all they had learned. We can offer the same deal to Saddam's henchmen, plus money. American hostility to the International Criminal Court might be better understood in this light. Testimonials from former Boston mobsters concerning the joys of the Witness Protection Program will help.

We can easily communicate our offers to the people we want to reach - everyone associated with Iraqi WMD and foreign terrorists, plus ordinary Iraqis in positions to observe them - with leaflets and broadcasts over the hijacked signals of Iraqi television and radio networks. Communicating the offers beforehand without indicating that invasion is imminent could be a problem, but Congressional objections to the reward amounts would be a start.

We will, however, have to show ordinary Iraqis what we are looking for - people, equipment, facilities, etc. That may give our spooks heart failure, but Saddam won't have the time to benefit from learning how much we know, and the terrorists will be running out of sanctuaries. Doing so before the invasion will also get this identification information to the newsmen who will be in Iraq then - better that they get to the WMD before the terrorists, and the newsmen too will pay Iraqis for information on those locations.

Mere rumors that invading Americans are offering money for information about Iraqi WMD will speed our conquest. Entry of American forces into a given area of Iraq should be a joyous occasion - "Uncle Sugar is coming to our village, praise Allah! Fill vials with baby milk powder!"

But why limit our offers to information about WMD and foreign terrorists? Why not outright buy the WMD? For that matter, why not buy mass surrenders? The holy grail of operational planning has for many years been simultaneous attacks throughout an enemy's strategic depth to paralyze resistance and overthrow their entire system. A plan to do this with special operations forces was briefly discussed earlier, and rightly rejected for inadequate means.

We do have the means, given the shakiness of Saddam's regime, to achieve the same result with simulated similar deep attacks using expendable numbers of psychological warfare/deception personnel. They could arrive by helicopter or parachute and buy surrenders by willing Iraqi unit commanders while convincing Saddam, chiefly with signals deception, that those same units are being overwhelmed by American power. The latter would avert Saddam's retaliation against the surrendering commanders' families. This would be risky for our psychwar teams, but captivity would be brief (the Iraqis did not slaughter American POW's in 1991 and won't now) as real American ground units would be only a few days behind.

Even a few early mass Iraqi surrenders deep in their territory could produce cascading effects, especially as real American forces (including counter-proliferation teams) would be immediately flown to those areas. The will to resist of Saddam's few die-hards would be shattered if American forces arrive outside Baghdad in only two days while Iraqi units seem overwhelmed wherever Americans appear.

But farce could easily turn to terror. There is an all too real chance that we'll discover Iraqi biowar facilities have produced smallpox weapons using bioengineered cultures developed by the USSR, with an incubation period of 1-5 days as opposed to 7-15 days for natural smallpox. The Bush Administration's plans for only post-attack mass inoculation cannot work against this enhanced weaponized smallpox. Millions of Americans will die unnecessarily if it is used on us.

We'll find out soon.