September 20, 2007: In
addition to all the disruption of the clan wars, about a quarter of the ten
million population of Somalia is suffering from the long drought, and
subsequent famine. The U.S. is providing
millions of dollars a month in food aid, which is the bulk of the relief aid
coming into the country.
Meanwhile, Transitional Government and Ethiopian forces
continue to drive hostile clan populations out of Mogadishu. The displaced
clans belong to the Islamic Courts
Alliance, and are fighting for their economic survival. In a land of limited
economic resources, control of parts of Mogadishu is worth a lot of money, and
worth fighting over, which is what is happening. This has been going on for two
decades now, since the first, and only, government of a united Somalia, finally
collapsed in the early 1990s. The
clans have been trying to work out a
new, nationwide deal to unite and govern Somalia ever since. But too many clans
would rather fight than talk, and that is still Somalia's curse. Meanwhile,
over a million refugees, displaced by the fighting, are getting by in "temporary"
camps, supplied by foreign charity (mainly from the United States.)
September 16, 2007: Saudi Arabia hosted the signing of a
reconciliation agreement between several Somali clans. Saudi Arabia provided
the necessary bribes and "gifts" needed to make this peace deal
happen. Unfortunately, Somali clans, once bought, don't stay bought. So the
Saudis will have to continue payments, as well as energetic diplomacy (to keep
reminding the clan leaders of the connection between doing what the Saudis
want, and the continued arrival of the cash.)
September 14, 2007: In Eritrea, the revived Islamic Courts
Alliance (ICA, although officially, the "Anti-Ethiopian Alliance")
has selected Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as their leader. Thus the new phase in
the two decade old Somali civil war has one coalition of clans forming the
Transitional Government, while the other forms the ICA. The Transitional
Government has the backing of the West and all of Somalias neighbors, except
Eritrea. The ICA is backed by Eritrea and the Axis of Evil (Iran, North Korea
and Islamic terrorists in general). The ICA has the support of clans comprising
about a third of the counties population. The ICA has an edge because they
believe God is on their side, and that anything goes. Actually, that's not a
particular advantage in Somalia. The country has long been known for ruthless
combat tactics. Women and children are regularly included in the fighting
(either as human shields, or combatants) and regularly victimized. Both sides
will play this up to the Western media, as an example of how evil their
opponents are.
The ICA have another advantage
in that they oppose the "foreign invader", Ethiopia. No matter that it
was the ICA that attacked Ethiopia first, by reviving the rebellion in the
Ethiopian province of Ogaden, and urging Somalis to liberate all of Ethiopia
from the curse of Christianity. Them's fighting words in this part of the
world, so the Ethiopians fought back. Ethiopia doesn't want to pull its troops
out until the ICA is so weak that it cannot support violence inside Ethiopia.
