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The Odd Just Got Odder

September 11, 2008: Sometime last month, northern leader Kim Jong Il had a stroke, and underwent surgery. He is apparently recovering, but there is renewed interest in who, or what, would take over if Kim Jong Il died. He has three sons ( 37 year-old Kim Jong Nam, 27 year-old Kim Jong Chol, and 24 year old Kim Jong Un, 24). The two older sons are considered too weak or corrupt to take over, but the youngest is believed to be, well, too young. There are several factions interested in taking over, but 60 years of police state rule has brutally discouraged new national leaders from developing. Even the Chinese are uncertain of who the new leadership would be, although there have been lots of rumors about China supporting a Communist Party faction dedicated to economic reform using the Chinese model.

North Korea is facing another major famine, with the potential for killing a million or more people. The government does not appear to be overly concerned, and foreigners are perplexed at this lack of urgency. North Korean officials do seem more concerned with their personal wealth and power, and ability to avoid the communists purists in the state security organizations. It's very strange up there.

North Korea has built a second ICBM launch site. It is on the west coast and about 80 percent complete. Meanwhile, North Korea refuses to allow verification that it is really dismantling its nuclear weapons program (in return for economic and food aid.) North Korea insists that they be taken off the "supporter of terrorism" list before it allows verification. The U.S. won't do this.

September 5, 2008: Only a few percent of North Koreans have seen South Korean television (which is shocking to the northerners, who have been raised to believe that the southerners were worse off.) But what is doing the most damage to northern morale is the spread of DVRs and DVD players. Cheap ones from China are smuggled in and secretly sold. If caught with any of this illegal media (North Korean radios and TVs are built to receive only a few government controlled channels), you go to prison camp, or are executed. Modifying radios or TVs to receive South Korean, Chinese or Russian channels also gets you in big trouble.

September 2, 2008: The UN is putting together a half billion dollar famine relief effort, to reach 6.2 million North Koreans faced with starvation. The U.S. is the largest contributor, and North Korea has agreed to allow 59 foreign officials to supervise distribution of the food. Some of the foreigners will be allowed to deal directly with North Koreans, in Korean. The foreigners are finding that, for government officials, control over food is the path to wealth and power. This is why the North Korean government has resisted foreign supervision of what happens to the food once it entered North Korea. The fact (and photos to prove it) is that some of this food is exported and sold in China. More of the food goes to the military, and the food that goes to the starving is allocated to provinces that have the most powerful officials, not the largest number of starving people.

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smitty237    The clock is ticking   9/11/2008 9:01:38 AM
I have to believe that a lot of intelligence types and military planners are burning the midnight oil in Washington, Seoul, and Bejing these days.  For a long time a lot of people have both looked forward to and feared the day when Kim Jong Il was out of the picture, but it looks like that day is rapidly approaching whether we're ready or not.  Even if Kim doesn't die, his ability to lead and make decisions will most probably be severely degraded.  As this situation develops I would expect the military generals in Pyongyang to start the political manuevering and jockeying for power and position.  Of course the biggest fear is that the North will launch an all or nothing military attack on the South.  It's a war that the North would most definitely lose, with South Korea, the United States, and China having to clean up the mess and deal with the regional ramifications. 
 
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Gerry       9/11/2008 7:18:47 PM
One can only hope that Kims stroke is the first of many, and often for those with stroke, it is. The Chinese would be most adament against any North Korean military forey into the south, as technically the north and south are still at war and any move by the South Koreans into the north would be seen as an act of war. China is counting on this as a way to eventually control North Korea. However, any crossing of the border, to the south, by the north, would invite the south to legally enter the north. Which China does not want. China would then have to make the decision to enter the Korean war again, and risk all with the US, or give in to the South Korean occupation of North Korea. It could even be a reason for North Korean generals to attack the south.
 
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trenchsol       9/11/2008 8:42:51 PM
I think that China has the best chance to take over. South Korea expressed an opinion that creating human-like conditions in the north is too much for their economy. Kim is not getting any younger, and his days are over, next year, or one after it, doesn't matter. China is the only country with some foothold and certain influence in North Korea. Although, neither Chinese sound too enthusiastic about it. That will put additional burden on them with not much to gain from it.
 
From what I've heard their 170 mm howitzers proved excelent in Iran - Iraq war, is that true ?
 
DG
 
 
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ker       9/12/2008 5:51:53 PM

One can only hope that Kims stroke is the first of many, and often for those with stroke, it is. The Chinese would be most adament against any North Korean military forey into the south, as technically the north and south are still at war and any move by the South Koreans into the north would be seen as an act of war. China is counting on this as a way to eventually control North Korea. However, any crossing of the border, to the south, by the north, would invite the south to legally enter the north. Which China does not want. China would then have to make the decision to enter the Korean war again, and risk all with the US, or give in to the South Korean occupation of North Korea. It could even be a reason for North Korean generals to attack the south.


This got me thinking.  A North Korean falsifies orders to attack the South in the hopes of participating in the surrender to the south and a new job administrating in the South Korean zone of former North Korea.  This could work best if the person falsifying the orders is not connected with the chain of command they are comming down but knows the details of the system. 
 
I have said that North Korea is more like an unexploded bomb than a military power.  This make it more dangerous.
 
Still every time a norther starves the clean up gets a little bit cheaper.  When you see a surprising number of southern and Chinese officials with experience with the north taking retirement short stocks with exposer to Chinas economy.  No that would be wrong. 
 
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