November 20, 2007: In North
Korea, the struggle between conservatives (who want a strict communist
dictatorship) and reformers (who want something more like China, with economic
freedom) continues. The conservatives appear to be winning. That can be seen in
recent actions against the public markets (which have only been allowed for a
few years, but have been very successful.) Prices are being regulated, and
younger (under 39) women are not allowed to sell goods at the markets (younger
women are the most successful at this, and set a poor example of communist
womanhood). The government is also
trying to regulate prices. As a result, much of the market is going
underground. That's fine with the secret police, who are increasingly willing
to haggle over the size of a bribe. The secret police have also been active
along the Chinese border, where illegal television viewing (Chinese signals get
across the border) is popular, along with the use of cell phones. All of this
provides profitable opportunities for the cops, who get bribes, or seize and
resell the illegal electronic devices.
The police are also confiscating Chinese made motorcycles, which cost
less them half what North Korean made ones do, and are more reliable.
Motorcycles are the chief means of transporting trade goods, so the police see
these vehicles as an easy way to get rich. The increasing corruption of the
police by the bribes and the market economy worries the leadership greatly.
There is also growing market activity among soldiers, who are bartering or
selling whatever they can, in order to buy food or consumer goods. Most North
Koreans are now aware that South Koreans live a better life, and as more cheap
Chinese CD movie players get around, more North Koreans see visual proof of
what is happening down south. North Koreans would rather try and get a little
of that good life, than launch a revolution. But few in the North Korean
leadership understand that, and see economic freedom as the beginning of a
political revolution. But whenever they crack down on the market economy, the
economic situation gets worse. The current influx of free fuel and food, in
return for shutting down their nuclear weapons program, allows the North Korean
government to crack down on the market economy. But that's only a temporary
respite from economic trends that are crushing the communist police state up
north. Too many in the North Korean leadership haven't got a clue what's going
on. Self-delusion has been turned into a state religion, and there are lots of
believers on the government payroll. Many military leaders simply want to avoid
going the way (unemployment) of their East European counterparts two decades
ago. A minority of the North Korean leadership does comprehend what is
happening in China (a communist police state with free markets) and South Korea
(a wealthy democracy), but are having a hard time educating their fellow
bureaucrats, and convincing everyone to make needed changes.
