July 25,
2008: The success of the surge offensive
resulted in an intelligence windfall. Documents and prisoner interrogations (as
well as identifying the dead) provided a lot more information on hostile Sunni
and Shia groups, as well as interesting observations about the factions
currently controlling the government. All this clarified and confirmed the very
factious nature of Iraqi society. Seems anybody with a quick mouth and a lot of
guns can form their own little army. This factionalism is accompanied by a
self-righteousness that seems to justify a wide range of bad behavior. This
includes corruption, but also murder, torture, rape, theft and a long list of
exotic crimes. The religious factions invoke God a lot, but the more sectarian
groups make a big deal about protecting the family or tribe. Not a lot of
loyalty to Iraq, or the concept of nationwide law and justice. Iraqis will make
a lot of noise about being Iraqi, but the real loyalty begins closer to home,
family, tribe or mosque.
Some
Iraqis are still loyal to a foreign power. The largest group are those who
follow senior Shia clerics and scholars in Iran. These guys believe in the
Iranian concept of a world-wide Islamic dictatorship, run by clerics of the
Shia persuasion. Al Qaeda, or what's left of it in Iraq, has the same idea,
only the leadership would be from the mainstream Sunni form of Islam. There are
even some socialists and communists left (Saddam's thugs hunted them for
sport), who yearn for their own form of international dictatorship.
Seems like
most Iraqis either want someone to tell them what to do, or want to be the guy
issuing the orders and death sentences. A really rough neighborhood. And it's
getting worse partly because of all the training American instructors have been
giving to the new Iraqi army and police force. There are still plenty of
incompetent commanders and troops, but about a third of the units are pretty
good, The trouble is that most army or police units are led by officers who are
loyal to one faction or another. The troops tend to share the loyalties of
their officers. Iraq, like most of the Middle East, is a culture of Factions.
The
intelligence bonanza has made it more clear what the relationship between Iran
and various Iraqi factions (both Shia and Sunni, and even Kurdish) has been.
Other captured data has made it easier to shut down the arms smuggling from
Iran. But it has also revealed many long term relationships between some Iraqi
politicians, and leaders of the clerical dictatorship that runs Iran. This sort
of thing worries the Sunni Arab states to the south.
While
Sunni parties have rejoined the government, Kurdish legislators are now jamming
things up over Kirkuk. This city was, for centuries, a Kurdish place (by
population and culture). But in the 1990s, Saddam Hussein began driving Kurds
out and giving Sunni Arabs (from the south) their property. After 2003, Kurds
began returning, seeking to get their homes, farms and businesses back. Some
Sunni Arabs fled, but others joined with al Qaeda to fight. The fighting
continues, and the Kurds are insisting that parliament pass a provincial voting
law that will favor Kurds regaining political power in and around Kirkuk.
Although political compromise is a new concept in Iraq, the issue of who "owns"
Kirkuk has proved to be a very contentious one, and is holding up provincial
elections (which were to be in October, but now look more likely in December,
or even later).
The Shia
militias, all under some degree of influence from Iran, have basically decided
to accept a truce. Everyone wants to see if a power (and oil revenue) sharing
deal can be negotiated without resorting to a civil war. Such a conflict would
bring in outsiders (Iranians, Saudis, Syrians, Americans), and would mainly
destroy Iraqi property.
The
offensive against al Qaeda and the remaining Sunni Arab terrorists continues. For
many Iraqi troops involved, this has become a training exercise with real
bullets. The Sunni terrorists are outnumbered, out-thought and outfought. Many
more are surrendering and accepting amnesty. Continuing police corruption is
ruining this reconciliation opportunity. But corruption and factionalism are
the twin curses that really make Iraq such a hellhole. It's long been ignored
by the rest of the world. But with the religious fanaticism, and all the oil
money, these local problems become international ones. The Middle Eastern
miasma is not going away by itself.
July 23,
2008: Turkish warplanes bombed thirteen
locations in northern Iraq, all described (by the Turks) as bases for the PKK
(a Kurdish terrorist group that uses bases in Iraq to stage attacks in eastern
Turkey).
