November 4, 2007: The government continually
plays up the likelihood of an American attack, and how the nation must unite to
resist this aggression. The government, with the support of less than 20
percent of the population, needs an external threat to defuse any rebel
movements inside the country. Iran has so far managed to terrorize the majority
of Iranians into submission with a combination of force (quick police
action, jail, or attacks by gangs of pro-government thugs) and distribution of
oil revenues to those who cooperate. Added to this has been a propaganda
campaign that stresses efforts by the West, especially the United States, to
hurt Iran. Unrest among the half of the population that is not ethnic Iranian,
is blamed on foreigners, as are the country's economic ills (high unemployment
and lack of opportunity). It works.
November 3, 2007: Western nations are proposing
more sanctions on Iran, in an effort to coerce Iran into halting its nuclear
weapons program. Sanctions don't work very well, and often backfire. The
leaders of nations hit by sanctions don't feel the heat, but the general
population does. The leaders generally drum up a propaganda campaign that
shifts blame to evil foreigners. Recent attempts to target sanctions at the
leadership have been more successful, but not decisive. The leaders cannot
travel as much as they used to, and have to spend more money to import goodies
for themselves.
October 28, 2007: The head of the UN nuclear
watchdog agency (the IAEA, or International Atomic Energy Agency) believes that
Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA itself is officially
unsure. Intelligence agencies in many major nations (France and U.S., for
example) disagree with the IAEA leader (who has been wrong before). Russia and
China are also supporting the IAEA opinion, largely in order to protect
economic interests with Iran (buying oil and selling Iran weapons and nuclear
power plants).
October 24, 2007: The U.S. imposed sanctions on
about two dozen Iranian organizations and individuals. This round of sanctions
was meant to make it more difficult for Iranians to use the international
banking system.
