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December 15, 2004

The crackdown on moderates and reformers has succeeded, and many of the people who backed the reforms are fleeting the country. Emigration is moving at about 200,000 a year, with most of those involved the best educated and most successful economically. More ominously, many of the student reform leaders are going underground, which is the next step on the way to armed resistance. There are already 800,000 Iranian exiles in the United States, and they have been generous in supporting reform back in Iran.