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India-Pakistan: Tiger By The Tail
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July 8, 2010: The U.S. and India continue to pressure Pakistan to close down terrorist camps that continue to operate openly. While many Pakistanis blame the terrorism on Indian and American intelligence agencies, the U.S. and India have a growing number of reports from captured terrorists giving detailed information on specific terror training camps, and Pakistani government involvement. The U.S. is able to follow up with satellite photo and electronic surveillance. The Pakistanis have shut down some of these camps, but resist moving on others (especially those supporting operations in India.) This is because, while recent polls show 71 percent of Pakistanis are openly opposed to the Taliban, and 61 percent to al Qaeda, most Pakistanis still support Islamic terrorists dedicated to attacking India. But these groups are now allied with the Taliban and al Qaeda, and often involved in attacks like the recent one against a Sufi shrine. Thus more and more Pakistanis oppose all Islamic terrorists, but it could be years before this becomes a large (over two-thirds) majority. The large minority (about a third) of Pakistanis, who support Islamic terrorism no matter what, are worrisome, particularly for Pakistani politicians. But the Pakistani leadership isn't waiting, and are shutting down a lot of Islamic radical groups based outside the tribal territories. This high risk strategy is considered a matter of self-preservation, getting to the Islamic terrorists before they can kill or kidnap more Pakistani politicians and military leaders.

India has moved additional troops into Kashmir, where increasingly violent street demonstrations have caused a curfew to be imposed in many urban areas. Separatists there have lost their terrorism campaign, which turned many Moslems against them. But street demonstrations, and throwing rocks at the police, is more popular and has attracted many young men who used to work with terrorist groups. Because of these violent young men, several of them get killed a week, further fueling the violence.

In northeast India (Assam) Maoists are believed responsible for an explosion that derailed a train, killing five and injuring 13.

In the tribal territories of Pakistan, troops and police continue to chase down groups of Taliban and al Qaeda. Many Taliban have tried to go underground, but there are too many villagers willing to turn them in. So finding a safe hiding place is difficult. Thus many Taliban remain together, so they can force villagers to provide food and shelter. But large (several dozen to over a hundred) groups of armed men are an attractive target to a foe who has helicopters and aircraft, plus the aid of dozens of American UAVs. Every week, one or two of these large groups are cornered and destroyed, with most of the terrorists killed. Enough are taken alive to provide a steady stream of information on Taliban activities.

July 7, 2010: In eastern India, about a hundred armed Maoists attacked a village and its police station. Two civilians were killed.

July 3, 2010: Indian police arrested three men who sneaked into the country from Bangladesh. The three had guns and one of them was identified as belonging to ISI (Pakistani intelligence, an outfit notorious for its support of Islamic terror groups.)

July 2, 2010: Indian police arrested Niranjan Hojai, leader of one of the tribal separatist groups in Assam, near the Nepal border. There has been rebel activity in the seven states of northeast India (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya) for over 60 years. The total population of this area is 39 million, with most of it (72 percent) in Assam. Despite peace breaking out in most of the region, there are still some outbreaks of violence. A lot of this appears to be caused by Maoist rebels establishing themselves in the northeast.

In the southeast, police  encountered and killed Maoist leader Cherukuri Rajkumar, who resisted arrest with gunfire. There was a $25,000 reward for Rajkumar, dead or alive.

July 1, 2010: In Lahore, Pakistan, two Islamic terrorists detonated suicide bombs, killing over 40 and wounding nearly 200. This was a Sufi shrine, and Sunni radicals (al Qaeda and Taliban) consider Sufis heretics. Most Moslems consider Sufis particularly devout. In the last four months, nearly 300 people in Lahore have died from Islamic terror attacks. As a result of that, within 48 hours, Lahore police received tips allowing them to arrest a dozen Islamic terrorists, and seize many weapons and bomb making material. Senior Islamic clerics in Pakistan condemned the Islamic terrorists, something that is happening more frequently and unequivocally. Thus, as happened in Iraq, the Islamic terrorist murdered their way from widespread popularity (for killing foreigners and corrupt local leaders) to widespread condemnation (for killing so many civilians). Meanwhile, the Pakistani government still has to deal with a lot of their own officials, especially in the ISI, who still support Islamic terrorists, at least those willing to kill Indians and Westerners. Thus Pakistan still has the tiger by the tail, and is unsure how they will survive this long term attempt to exploit Islamic terrorism for their own goals (gain control of Kashmir or control over Afghanistan).

 

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