July 19, 2007:
Tradition is fighting change to a standstill. Tradition means tribe is
the primary loyalty, and everyone else is a potential victim, or enemy. Change
means civil society, where democracy and negotiation, not threats, bribes and
violence, are used to settle disputes. Old customs are hard to give up, and
Afghanistan has been resisting change for over a century. Now, the
central government has the military might to break the tribal power. U.S. and
NATO troops continue combing the south, smashing Taliban combat groups,
and, more importantly, depleting the supply of Taliban leaders. The drug gangs
see the Taliban as tools, not a threat. The Taliban like to puff
themselves up, but most Afghans see them as a bunch of ignorant, vicious and
inept religious zealots. The drug gangs are another matter, because these guys
have lots of money, and more realistic goals.
July 17, 2007: The
poppy crop this year covers about 450,000 acres, up 12 percent from last year.
Government efforts destroyed about 50,000 acres this year, and the government
is reconsidering spraying. The real war in Afghanistan is the battle to
suppress the drug production. Sales of opium and heroin provide warlords with
sufficient funds to buy weapons and men to fight the government to a
standstill. With wealthy drug lords infesting the southern part of the country,
and tempting other areas to emulate them, there is no central government
control. About a third of the nations GDP, or some $10 billion, goes to
the drug gangs. They have more money to spend on weapons and gunmen than the
government does. Without the foreign troops, the drug gangs would already have
taken over.
