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Event: Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013.
Expires: 04/01/2013
Created: 02/15/2005
Pro Futures: 1046     Value: 4
Con Futures: 3954     Value: 1



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Ancap Agency    RE:Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013.   2/16/2005 10:09:58 AM
Define "terrorists" for the purpose of this prediction. Define "American civilian" for the purpose of this prediction--does it include those Americans who are not members of the military, but are engaged in military contracts in combat zones? Are American employees of PMCs (Private Military Corporations) included? Also, I'm assuming this tally begins with the date of the initial predicition--is that correct?
 
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GCoyote    RE:Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013.   2/20/2005 9:26:36 AM
First I'd have to see the prediction on StrategyPage still being in operaton by April 2013!
 
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SufiBeagle    RE:NY / DC / London nuked?   2/21/2005 1:02:54 PM
I think that there?s a fair chance that New York and/or Washington DC, and maybe London, will be hit by terrorists with 10-kiloton nukes, maybe 10 years from now (to pick a number at random). This would kill a lot more than 20K people. Could the US and UK survive? a) In the case of DC & London, I assume that a provisional government with some consitutional / institutional credibility would take over. Opinions? b) In the case of NY & London, though, would the banking/financial systems collapse? Would credit cards and paper money be worth anything? Or would there just (!) be a global 10-year depression? From a geopolitical view, who would ?benefit?? China?s economy (and other Asian economies) would take a serious hit without the US buying their goods, but undoubtedly China would see this as an opportunity to grab for more political, economic, and military influence, those sneaky immoral commies. I doubt that the US could maintain anything like its current military levels, involvements, and commitments. Would Japan and other countries develop nukes as a defensive measure? What other interesting implications are there? Who could (or would) we strike back at, if anybody? The nukes might be traced back with reasonable certainty to knowledge and fissionable materials provided by bad guys in the Pakistani nuclear program, but that couldn?t justify us nuking Islamabad, even if Musharraf has been overthrown and the Islamofascists are in power. (Although I?m sure there?d be calls for just that.) We might take out their nuke-development sites, assuming that they?re not totally dispersed into peoples? basements, but that would radicalize their whole population against us, and probably lead to the overthrow of any kind of government they might still have that semi-cooperates with us against terrorism. Besides, we couldn?t whack all of the people who have the knowledge to recreate their program or pass the knowledge along to others. Would the US and/or UK be hurt so badly that we?d have to largely withdraw from the Persian Gulf area, or demoralized so badly that our people demand that we do so? In my opinion, this might appease some of the Islamists to some extent, but the net effect would be to embolden the most dangerous of them. From a more personal point of view, what could an average suburban guy like me do to keep my family (wife and 2 teenagers, 10 years from now) alive and not starving? Without a financial system, or with a damaged one, could coal and oil keep flowing to electrical generator plants, and electricity from there to homes, industry, and water plants? Could the food distribution system keep working? Even at starvation levels of 3 16-oz (500g) cans of food a day, you?d have to stockpile 1100 cans per person per year (plus water, fuel, etc). Who has room for that? I hope that I?m wrong about the likelihood of this, but I don?t want to just stick my head in the sand. Does anyone have any suggestions for other preparations one could do? Or I?d be happy if anybody could explain to me why I?m being hysterically paranoid; it?d be much simpler to just worry about environmental collapse? that?s at least 15 years off ;-).
 
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Liberty6464       10/10/2006 3:05:16 AM
Better start checking those containers at our ports.  Did you know we do not check all the containers coming into the USA? And that the money that would be required for nuclear detectors  is less than we spend in Iraq in a month. But yet we check all the containers flying into Bagdad.
--Your Halliburton Tax dollars at work

 
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happyman77       10/14/2006 10:38:48 PM
Nuking D.C. would not damage state, county, and municipal government. Most government in the U.S. operates at those levels and does so independent of Washington. Local government would maintain order while the surviving federal government, including federal district courts brings the federal government back together.
 
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Krasny Strela       10/20/2006 12:41:06 PM
If London or NYC were nuked a financial collapse would not happen.
1st financial instruments are fungible, Frankfurt (DAX), Chicago, Toronto (TSE), Tokyo (TSX), Singapore (SIMEX) etc would pick up the slack. At any rate most of the big players have DRPs (disaster recovery plans) to relocate operations out to distant sites, and they're trading floors  are already disbursed for the most part (to NJ etc), primarily due to cost. The data is backed-up nightly and most likely transmitted off-site. After 9/11 the big players already are prepped.
 
2nd Financial Instruments ie money will not collapse. It may like after 9/11 go into free fall a while ( I watched street front exchange booths devalue the USD every 5 miutes while the dust cloud was still settling in NYC), but the rest of the 300m US citizens and the world will still have to conduct business and live.
 
No the system (financial and social) can survive the loss of NYC, DC or London. The system is a stringer than that, BUT, this is if one of those goes boom, multiple strikes (or most likely shipping containers) on a large number of cities and all bets are off. If I were trying to dropkick the US or world financial system, I would wait until I could deliver 10-20 packages.
 
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