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Subject: After a meeting with the POTUS in Singapore, Russian President issues a warning to Iran.
DarthAmerica    11/16/2009 2:07:22 PM
November 17, 2009 More Delays for Iranian Nuclear Power Plant By MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ MOSCOW?Russia?s energy minister said on Monday that a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Iran that is a focal point in the ongoing dispute over Iran?s nuclear ambitions would not come online by the end of the year as planned. The launch of the plant at Bushehr in southern Iran has been plagued with setbacks since Russia began work on the facility in the mid-1990s, with Russian officials often appearing to use the project to gain diplomatic leverage in negotiations with Iran?s leaders. ?We expect serious results by the end of the year, but the launch itself will not occur,? Sergei Shmatko, the energy minister, said at a news conference in Moscow, according to the Ria Novosti news ngency. He vowed that the Bushehr plant would be completed, but said the launch date would depend on security guarantees at the facility. Mr. Shmatko denied that politics played any role in the delay, saying that ?technical issues? were responsible. There was no immediate response from Iran?s top leaders, though some hard-line members of Iran?s Parliament reacted angrily to the announcement. Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, a member of Parliament, called Russia ?dishonest.? ?If we wait another 200 years, the Russians will not complete the plant,? he said, according to Iran?s ISNA news agency. ?It is naive to believe that the Russians are cooperating with us.? Monday?s announcement came a day after Russia?s president, Dmitry A. Medvedev, expressed frustration with the pace of negations over Iran?s nuclear program. Speaking after a meeting in Singapore with President Obama on Sunday, Mr. Medvedev indicated that Russia might support sanctions against Tehran if no agreements were reached soon. Russia?s leaders have said they oppose efforts by Iran to build a nuclear weapon, but have joined the Iranians in insisting that the Bushehr plant would be for civilian use only. The head of Russia?s state nuclear company, Sergei V.Kiriyenko, said in February that Russia planned to bring the Bushehr plant online by the end of 2009. Shortly after, Iran conducted what it said was a successful test of the plant?s reactor. Russia signed a contract to complete the plant in 1995, resuming work on a project that the German company, Siemens, began in the 1970s only to withdraw from Iran after the 1979 revolution. Russia delivered its first shipment of enriched-uranium fuel rods to Bushehr in 2007, under an agreement that would require Iran to send the spent nuclear fuel back to Russia for disposal. At the time, Western diplomats hoped the arrangement could persuade Iran to give up its own uranium enrichment program, though Iran as so far refused to do so. Rather, Iran has continued to pursue what it says is a civilian nuclear program, giving mixed signals about its willingness to accept a proposal to ship its enriched uranium to a third country for processing. Of late, Russia has appeared to acquiesce to increased pressure from the United States and Europe to take a stronger stance with regard to Iran. Responding in part to criticism from the United States and Israel, Russia has so far failed to make good on a deal with Iran to deliver an advanced surface-to-air missile system called the S-300. The delays have angered Iran?s leaders, who have long coveted the system for protection from possible air strikes against their country?s nuclear sites. Last week, Iran?s defense minister, Ahmad Vahidi, suggested that a failure to deliver the system could undermine relations between Iran and Russia. -------------------------------------------------------------------- There is more to this. I'll post updates when they are available. -DA
 
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YelliChink       11/16/2009 2:28:16 PM
I suspect that their sudden change in attitude has more to do with either their internal politics, or their recently realization of how f_cked up their intelligence of Iran. It could also mean that the US and the NATO are going to stay out of Ukrainian politics in January. I don't see how a nuke-armed Iran would serve Russian interests. At certain point, they will turn their back on the Farsi mini-empire.
 
Now good luck with the Chinese. Maybe Obama can bow to Hu, and, by giving the Chinese face, he could persuade the Chinese not to veto the sanction.
 
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DarthAmerica       11/16/2009 3:53:19 PM

I suspect that their sudden change in attitude has more to do with either their internal politics, or their recently realization of how f_cked up their intelligence of Iran. It could also mean that the US and the NATO are going to stay out of Ukrainian politics in January. I don't see how a nuke-armed Iran would serve Russian interests. At certain point, they will turn their back on the Farsi mini-empire.

 

The Russian position on Iran was never really a valid one. As I mentioned many times before. Shahabs can just as easily reach Moscow as they can Tel Aviv. The Russians aren't going to allow the Iranians to go nuclear independent. The only interest the Russians have in Iran is that it distracts and draws resources from the USA that allow Russia more freedom to take action in Eastern Europe. The Russians have always been traditionally invulnerable to economic troubles affecting the west but in this era that has changed. Now Russia is interested in foreign investment to reboot it's economy and it seems that it may be willing to trade away it's Iran card for that. Of course, the Russians have other means to menace western interest such as with energy and in Afghanistan. We'll see but this is a potentially very good development and along the lines of what we have been discussing. 

-DA 

 


 
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eldnah       11/16/2009 5:40:09 PM
Medvedev will make all kinds of nice noises and even "Do" things i.e. even make protestations and perhaps vote favorably on US resolutions at the UN because China has his back and will veto anything that would actually affect Iran. We owe China so much we have minimal leverage over her. On other issuse China may side with us while Russia refuses. We'll be whipsawed between them if they wish, so let's not be naive and make believe anything is being accomplished.
 
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DarthAmerica       11/16/2009 5:52:48 PM

Medvedev will make all kinds of nice noises and even "Do" things i.e. even make protestations and perhaps vote favorably on US resolutions at the UN because China has his back and will veto anything that would actually affect Iran. We owe China so much we have minimal leverage over her. On other issuse China may side with us while Russia refuses. We'll be whipsawed between them if they wish, so let's not be naive and make believe anything is being accomplished.

You are assuming. Why? Support these assertions please. The USA and PRC are interdependent and the US-China relationship is by far more important than the Iran-China relationship. China is an export driven economy who's survival DEPENDS on the United States buying it's goods. 

-DA 
 
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YelliChink       11/16/2009 6:35:21 PM


You are assuming. Why? Support these assertions please. The USA and PRC are interdependent and the US-China relationship is by far more important than the Iran-China relationship. China is an export driven economy who's survival DEPENDS on the United States buying it's goods. 

-DA


And the US stopped buying from China after The Melt Down.
 
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PlatypusMaximus       11/16/2009 6:59:08 PM
Actually, Medvedev announced these warnings in Russian newspapers last week; and in German Newspapers, and with the French President, during the Berlin Wall Fall Anniversary. That seems fitting to me, but this APEC Singapore angle is extremely interesting...I hear Obama was there.
 
We'll take it either way.
 
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Le Zookeeper    Why Russian warning is meaningless   11/16/2009 9:01:50 PM
There is another angle besides Russia seeking money from Iran arms deal. People completely forget that Iran has deep experience in playing with Russia, and one such key is ----Chechnya. I think Russia knows that the fifth column of power in Chechnya is - oh shit ooops!! Iran!!! The AYatollahs are way smarter than u realize. Russia and Iran have essentially worked a deal that Iran gets nuclear tech and in exchange Iran does not let Chechnya flare up. Bet u didn't know that. Now you know why Iran will get the bomb. Iran has everybody by the balls.
 
1) Chechnya and Russia
2) Hamas/Hizbullah/chemical weapons/missiles vs Israel
3) Control of Iraq (belive it or not, the reports I get is Iran is gradually taking deep roots into Iraq and China is signing contracts there)
4) EU ain't gonna do jack there
5) Persian gulf can be choked and world economy would be ruined easily, temporarily but painful
6) In 1982 Khan got bomb designs from China and they were transferred to Iran, Iran at least has (undeliverable by missile )deliverable by truck, sub, ship nukes. Noko tested them for sure.
7) More unknown nuke sites possible.
 
All in all my analysis made in 2003 stands. Iran will get the bomb and have deployable missile warheads soon. Its over.
 
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Le Zookeeper    And additional commentary on why Russia stopping Iran is wishfull dream-    11/16/2009 9:10:49 PM
Russia's withdrawal of support for the Iranian nuclear program might jeopardize these other lucrative deals. Even more problematic, Russian government officials rarely resign from their high-power positions at state-owned companies, so they stand to gain personally from continued or increasing ties with Iran. This enmeshing of public and private interests has complicated Russian foreign policy for years, and would make Moscow's break with Iran tremendously difficult. 

Second, Iran is still a powerbroker in the Caspian oil trade; its position on the Caspian Sea, which is estimated to hold more than 10 billion tons of oil reserves, makes it an important and influential partner for Russia. Tehran has been extensively involved in coordinating transnational oil and gas deals, arranging transportation of exports with a number of regional states. Russia is in a position to use its good relations with Iran to challenge Washington's efforts to create new pipelines and foreign direct investment in the Caspian region. Iran has already proven an effective regional ally for Russia--in addition to cooperating on energy deals, Tehran has pointedly refrained from criticizing Moscow's Chechnya policy and has held strategic meetings with Moscow on the Taliban.  

Finally, Russian nuclear cooperation with Iran provides the Kremlin with leverage over the United States. Moscow remains guarded against Western advances into its "near abroad," and has fought to keep neighboring states from being brought into the NATO fold. By dangling the Iranian nuclear issue in front of the United States, Moscow may believe it has a means to maintain regional dominance. Russian leaders have already extracted concessions from Washington, as the United States recently altered plans for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. Yielding on the Iran issue would strip Moscow of the ability to coerce the United States and damage its own ability to reassert local influence.
 
 
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Le Zookeeper    Somebody passing the kool aid here?   11/16/2009 9:25:12 PM
US depends on China to finance its debts, sure China needs exports but it needs to get paid in money not Zimbabwe dollars.
Clearly Obama's visit in CHina is the lamest by a US President. No Tibet comments, no major lectures on democracy. Clearly people fail to see the US President went to China as a debtor seeking to reassure the banker(China) that we sall pay back the loans. China obviously will export elsewhare or sell its stuff to its own people. And Iran is contolling Iraq now, and that could be Chinas new oilfield. All in all next 10 to 20 years the East has the trump card.




You are assuming. Why? Support these assertions please. The USA and PRC are interdependent and the US-China relationship is by far more important than the Iran-China relationship. China is an export driven economy who's survival DEPENDS on the United States buying it's goods. 





-DA









And the US stopped buying from China after The Melt Down.


 
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sentinel28a       11/17/2009 4:05:28 AM
Not too many Presidents have made noise about Tibet, Zoo.  I would've been surprised (pleasantly so) if Obama had.  Didn't expect much from Obama other than a "Hi, I'm the new kid" anyway.
 
I don't know how much support the Chechens get from Iran, but AQ was a big financier of the Chechens.  AQ's mostly Sunni.  That doesn't necessarily mean anything, since Sunnis and Shi'a have been known to cooperate--though rarely for long.  However, I honestly don't think that Chechnya has much to do with it.  If the Iranians were to threaten the Russians with it, you'd see Russian arms sales to Iran plummet very quickly; you don't threaten the Russians when you have no cards in your hand.  Ahmadinejad threatening Putin with stepped-up action in Chechnya would probably meet with the response, "So, would you like a SS-18 into Teheran, or would you prefer merely a SS-20?"
 
Anyway, it's good news if it's true.  We've been jerked around by the Russians before on Iran.  When the sanctions are in place, then we can break out the victory ice cream with sprinkles on top.
 
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