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Subject: So Iran just pursues peaceful nuclear energy?
Hamilcar    11/5/2009 10:18:42 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/05/iran-tested-nuclear-warhead-design Quote: Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report Exclusive: Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles. The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned. The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile. Documentation referring to experiments testing a two-point detonation design are part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation gathered by the IAEA and presented to Iran for its response. The dossier, titled "Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program", is drawn in part from reports submitted to it by western intelligence agencies. The agency has in the past treated such reports with scepticism, particularly after the Iraq war. But its director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, has said the evidence of Iranian weaponisation "appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, appears to be generally consistent, and is sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran". Extracts from the dossier have been published previously, but it was not previously known that it included documentation on such an advanced warhead. "It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material," said a European government adviser on nuclear issues. James Acton, a British nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "It's remarkable that, before perfecting step one, they are going straight to step four or five ... To start with more sophisticated designs speaks of level of technical ambition that is surprising." Another western specialist with extensive knowledge of the Iranian programme said: "It raises the question of who supplied this to them. Did AQ Khan [a Pakistani scientist who confessed in 2004 to running a nuclear smuggling ring] have access to this, or is it another player?" The revelation of the documents comes at a time of growing tension. Tehran has so far rejected a deal that would remove most of its enriched uranium stockpile for a year and replace it with nuclear fuel rods which would be much harder to turn into weapons. The Iranian government has also balked at negotiations, which were due to begin last week, over its continued enrichment of uranium, in defiance of UN security council resolutions. There are fears in Washington and London that if no deal is reached to at least temporarily defuse tensions by the end of December, Israel could set in motion plans to take military action aimed at setting back the Iranian programme by force, with incalculable consequences for the Middle East. Iran has rejected most of the IAEA material on weaponisation as forgeries, but has admitted carrying out tests on multiple high-explosive detonations synchronised to within a microsecond. Tehran has told the agency that there is a civilian application for such tests, but has so far not provided any evidence for them. Western weapons experts say there are no such civilian applications, but the use of co-ordinated detonations in nuclear warheads is well known. They compress the fissile core, or pit, of the warhead until it reaches critical mass. A US national intelligence estimate two years ago said that Iran had explored nuclear warhead design for several years but had probably stopped in 2003. British, French and German officials have said they believe weaponisation continued after that date and may still be continuing. In September, a German court found a German-Iranian businessman, Mohsen Vanaki, guilty of brokering the sale of dual-use equipment with possible applications in developing nuclear weapons. The equipment included specialised high-speed cameras, of the sort used to develop implosion devices, as well as radiation detectors. According to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security, the German foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, testified at the trial that there was evidence that Iran's weapons development was continuing. The IAEA is seeking to find out what the scientists and the institutions involved in th
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       11/5/2009 11:11:16 PM
Russia probably has this design in its warheads, and the Chinese would at least be very knowledgeable of the theory, if not able to produce one right now (and may use the Iranians as a test bed).  Coincidentally, I ran across another article a month ago stating NK had a "new" warhead design.
 
Attacking Iran is still risky, but putting Isreal and possibly Turkey under the US nuclear umbrella may be a sufficient deterrent.
 
Might not be a bad idea to put an airborne laser system in Isreal as well.
 
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Hamilcar    The designs date back to WW II   11/5/2009 11:25:02 PM

Russia probably has this design in its warheads, and the Chinese would at least be very knowledgeable of the theory, if not able to produce one right now (and may use the Iranians as a test bed).  Coincidentally, I ran across another article a month ago stating NK had a "new" warhead design.

 

Attacking Iran is still risky, but putting Isreal and possibly Turkey under the US nuclear umbrella may be a sufficient deterrent.

 

Might not be a bad idea to put an airborne laser system in Isreal as well.


Edward Teller worked on one for FATMAN but was overruled by Oppenheimer due to time constraints. It showed up later as a BAKER shot. The design is not that special except as a primary to a "peanut".  It makes a good start point for a missile warhead.
 
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YelliChink       11/5/2009 11:46:41 PM

Russia probably has this design in its warheads, and the Chinese would at least be very knowledgeable of the theory, if not able to produce one right now (and may use the Iranians as a test bed).  Coincidentally, I ran across another article a month ago stating NK had a "new" warhead design.

 

Russians and Chinese didn't given design to Iran. Chinese probably helped Pakistan, then AQ Khan's nuke ring spread the Pakistani design throughout muslim states. Now you can presume that every Islamic state have bomb designs. It's the various enthusiasm and lack of resources and technical know-how that prevent them from taking action.
 
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DarthAmerica    @yellichink   11/6/2009 2:15:26 AM

Russia probably has this design in its warheads, and the Chinese would at least be very knowledgeable of the theory, if not able to produce one right now (and may use the Iranians as a test bed).  Coincidentally, I ran across another article a month ago stating NK had a "new" warhead design.


Russians and Chinese didn't given design to Iran. Chinese probably helped Pakistan, then AQ Khan's nuke ring spread the Pakistani design throughout muslim states. Now you can presume that every Islamic state have bomb designs. It's the various enthusiasm and lack of resources and technical know-how that prevent them from taking action.

These reports are nothing to fret about. The reason for them now is to increase pressure on Iran to cooperate and also to help build consensus for diplomatic or military action at some point in the future. It's good ol fashion carrot and stick. Just like the 2007 NIE. When Iran reigned in the factions it supported in Iraq after the surge, the NIE was worded in a way to ease tensions as a carrot for continued cooperation. Cooperation that was motivated by the surge which demonstrated US resolve at a time when IT SEEMED that the US was about ready to leave Iraq. The surge demonstrated commitment to the region which shocked the Iranians.

With domestic US support for the GWOT waning, A wary thinly stretched DoD and in concert with increasingly important events in Eastern Europe that will begin to tie up additional DoD resources, the Iranians are in a better position to pursue their regional ambitions. Thus, in order to "remind" the Iranians and Russians of the seriousness of the situation, you will see things like Juniper Cobra and reports such as these. Also don't forget the Israelis actually going to Russia to blow the whistle on Russian collusion. 

It's all designed to do three things. Build consensus for sanctions and failing that, casus belli convincing enough that the Iranians will have to make a decision on if the pending military response is worth it should sanctions fail. The veracity of the reports are not known well enough in open sources for ANYBODY to make a firm judgement. What we do know is that intelligence on what's going on in Iran can only be one of the following. We know they are up to something but not well enough to accurately judge progress or scope. Or, we know that while they may be conducting some illicit activity, it is not mature enough to warrant a military response yet. That's because IF Iran were really close to actual working weapons, we would probably strike and if we didn't the Israelis certainly would if for nothing else but to compel the USA to join in.

One more thing. Russia if they are actively involved with any weapons research will not allow the Iranians to actually complete development. Russia and Iran have not always been on good terms. Also, the Russians have incentive to draw this out and keep the DoD forces tied up in the GWOT as long as possible so they can make moves in the former Soviet states. 

In all likelihood however the Iranians are ~5 to 10 years away from an operational weapon of any kind.

-DA 
 
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Hamilcar    Your opinion is noted   11/6/2009 2:43:07 AM
and dismissed.
 
 
 
 
 
Quote:
 

Iran has the know-how to produce a nuclear bomb and may already have tested a detonation system small enough to fit into the warhead of a medium-range missile, according to confidential papers.

The ?secret annexe? to this year?s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran summarises information submitted by intelligence agencies about the country?s work on warheads, detonators and nuclear fuel enrichment. It is based partly on evidence thought to have been smuggled out of Iran by the wife of a spy recruited by German intelligence.

The papers conclude that Iran already ?has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device?, or atom bomb.

===============================================

Opinion must take into account data. Opinion without data is just noise.


 

 
 
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sinoflex       11/6/2009 2:52:09 AM


In all likelihood however the Iranians are ~5 to 10 years away from an operational weapon of any kind


-DA 
 
Be that as maybe, the Israelis probably feel a much greater sense of urgency.  The critical path for dealing with this problem may in fact not be of our choosing.
 
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DarthAmerica    @Sinoflex   11/6/2009 3:34:52 AM






In all likelihood however the Iranians are ~5 to 10 years away from an operational weapon of any kind






-DA 


 

Be that as maybe, the Israelis probably feel a much greater sense of urgency.  The critical path for dealing with this problem may in fact not be of our choosing.


I totally concur with this. In fact, that's what I've been alluding to. Israel doesn't have the strategic depth to fight a nuclear opponent. The problem is they don't have the means to force the issue by themselves and they NEED the support of an external power to remain militarily/economically viable. They get that from the USA. Thus, they are compelled to cooperate with us to a certain extent. But there is a red line. Once crossed, they could strike in the knowledge that the risk of Iranian retaliation will REQUIRE a US military response in order to keep the lid on OEF/OIF and of course to keep the Gulf clear of mines/AShMs. If the USA is going to go after all of that, it may as well finish the Iranian nuclear program off as well. The Israelis would probably have to endure some hardship as a price. But for them, it's the lesser of two evils compared to Iranian nuclear weapons. Buy waiting a while however, they are allowing the USA and others to fully exhaust diplomacy so that the likelihood of them having to do this alone is lessened.

-DA 

 

 
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sentinel28a       11/6/2009 3:35:45 AM
One more thing. Russia if they are actively involved with any weapons research will not allow the Iranians to actually complete development. Russia and Iran have not always been on good terms. Also, the Russians have incentive to draw this out and keep the DoD forces tied up in the GWOT as long as possible so they can make moves in the former Soviet states. 
 
Russia would be smart not to help the Iranians at all.  It wasn't that long ago that they were the Lesser Satan, and if Iran could give a workable nuke to someone like Hezbollah, it's not that much of a stretch that Chechens could end up with one too. 
 
I'm hoping the Russians are smart enough to realize this, but remember that Putin might not see war between Iran and the West as necessarily a bad thing.  Gas prices would skyrocket, and NATO would be further extended.  It's shortsighted, but it's not the first time the Russians made a deal with a racist nutbar, only to have things blow up in their face.  Hopefully not literally this time.
 
In all likelihood however the Iranians are ~5 to 10 years away from an operational weapon of any kind.
 
We hope.
 
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sinoflex       11/6/2009 3:53:38 AM

One more thing. Russia if they are actively involved with any weapons research will not allow the Iranians to actually complete development. Russia and Iran have not always been on good terms. Also, the Russians have incentive to draw this out and keep the DoD forces tied up in the GWOT as long as possible so they can make moves in the former Soviet states. 

Russia would be smart not to help the Iranians at all.  It wasn't that long ago that they were the Lesser Satan, and if Iran could give a workable nuke to someone like Hezbollah, it's not that much of a stretch that Chechens could end up with one too. 
 
I'm hoping the Russians are smart enough to realize this, but remember that Putin might not see war between Iran and the West as necessarily a bad thing.  Gas prices would skyrocket, and NATO would be further extended.  It's shortsighted, but it's not the first time the Russians made a deal with a racist nutbar, only to have things blow up in their face.  Hopefully not literally this time.
The Russian psyche suffers from so many personality disorders, schizophrenia, paranoia, inferiority complex etc.  I suppose with their history and geography it is understandable.  (This article nicely highlights some of their paranoia <link>).  They behave as though they are immune from the problems that vex us and yet they neighbor Iran and central Asian muslim countries.  I guess they're not phased by a little nuclear fallout.
 
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sinoflex       11/6/2009 3:56:21 AM
Duh!  I meant to write "fazed" rather than "phased". 
 
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