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Subject: Still no Russian Cooperation despite US concession
YelliChink    10/13/2009 1:17:24 PM
www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/world/europe/14diplo.html NYT: Russia Resists U.S. Position on Sanctions for Iran ?At the current stage, all forces should be thrown at supporting the negotiating process,? he said. ?Threats, sanctions, and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counterproductive.? Lavrov, Russian Foreign minister. www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/10/13/world/international-us-russia-clinton.html NYT: Clinton Fails to Win Russia Pledge on Iran Sanctions [quote] A senior U.S. official had said before the talks that Clinton wanted to know "what specific forms of pressure Russia would be prepared for to join us" if Iran did not keep promises to the international community not to pursue nuclear weapons. [unquote]
 
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CJH       11/1/2009 4:44:36 PM




I'm really not seeing a downside to this, if I'm Russia.  Of course, Stalin didn't see much downside to signing a nonaggression treaty with a genocidal nut either.






Probably because Stalin, being a genocidal nut himself, projected his own image onto Hitler and had that illusion that Hitler is just like him. Yes, indeed, in many respect, but he miscalculated about that Hitler is simply more audacious and daring than he ever was.
It's been my pet idea that Stalin was anticipating that Hitler would precipitate and become ensnared in a repeat of 1914-1918 in the West resulting in a mutual destruction of the participating regimes (IIRC, the original WWII German High Command plan for a campaign in the West was the modified Schlieffen Plan of 1914).
 
That might have given Stalin a free hand to become the "savior" (master) of Europe. If Stalin was, this preconception may have blinded him to what Hitler was really up to.
...
If there was a war between some Arab countries and Iran, would Russia benefit?
 
If Iran wanted to establish some sort of hegemony over Saudi and the emirates, how would that play out especiallly in the politics of oil, especially for Russia?
 
If Russia was ambitious of establishing a hegemony over the ME oil producing regions, would ME instability assist in it's realization or not?
 
If Russia wanted the US to get its hands burned getting involved in ME affairs, would a serious danger of or a reality of a regional war accomplish that?
 
Are Russia's leaders seeing some sort of path to becoming the ME's "savior" (master).
 
 

 
 
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Nichevo       11/1/2009 10:14:33 PM
Please...there was K2, there was Manas, Dushanbe, I can't remember all the Stans we've been in and out of like yo mama.   We come in and make a deal, then Russia puts their thumb on the scale, we gag at a little bribery and criminal/dissident-boiling-in-oil, our own bribes or payments are not enough, and whaddya know, hit the road GI Jack!  For some reason nobody connects the dots and realizes that this is what Russia does when they have a "sphere of influence," and that's why they cannot be allowed to have one, because it might interfere with out activities.
 
Russia, if I was stupid enough to make deals with Russia or offer them anything, is entitled to secure borders.  NOTHING MORE.
 
But it is true, the gamesmanship with Stan bases started early - 2003, 2005?  Bush however went from Stan to Stan cutting new deals the best he could.  O has just given away the store.
 
And giving China ASAT tech?  Um, no.  I'm going to be kind and assume that it was a warm day where you were and you were having a little fever.  Selling them black boxes might be one thing.  Tech transfer...please?  Can we at least try to learn?
 
Meanwhile, DA, you can't get around it...Russia's territorial integrity is guaranteed by their nuclear arsenal.  No other considerations are necessary.  If they had no nukes then the Eastern European geography might be important.  As it is, they'll just nuke the Franco-German morons (please Lord let us not be stupid enough to roll East!) as soon as they cross Tripwire X.  There is no need for an army in the West.  In the East, they need an army as China and Islam don't care about casualties.
 
And Putin is NOT a return to Bolshevism.  He is a throwback to the Czars.  This is why Solzhenitsyn endorsed him.  Socially, for Russia, he might do great things; it's just a pity about all the rest of the world.  "I can see his point."
 
However, if Russia is not viable under our conditions, that's just too bad.  Let them split up into oblasts.
 
And Darth, I bet you we will get nothing out of Russia.  Any cosmetic concession will be negated by Chinese intransigence and will be granted precisely because it will be negated by Chinese intransigence.  They will give us nothing they are not forced to give us. 
 
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DarthAmerica    @Nichevo and Sentinel   11/2/2009 3:11:15 PM

Please...there was K2, there was Manas, Dushanbe, I can't remember all the Stans we've been in and out of like yo mama.   We come in and make a deal, then Russia puts their thumb on the scale, we gag at a little bribery and criminal/dissident-boiling-in-oil, our own bribes or payments are not enough, and whaddya know, hit the road GI Jack!  For some reason nobody connects the dots and realizes that this is what Russia does when they have a "sphere of influence," and that's why they cannot be allowed to have one, because it might interfere with out activities.

Russia, if I was stupid enough to make deals with Russia or offer them anything, is entitled to secure borders.  NOTHING MORE.

But it is true, the gamesmanship with Stan bases started early - 2003, 2005?  Bush however went from Stan to Stan cutting new deals the best he could.  O has just given away the store.

How? What tangible gains have the Russians made? Please explain...
 

And giving China ASAT tech?  Um, no.  I'm going to be kind and assume that it was a warm day where you were and you were having a little fever.  Selling them black boxes might be one thing.  Tech transfer...please?  Can we at least try to learn?

Give them NOTHING with regard to potential ASAT technologies. NOTHING.
 

Meanwhile, DA, you can't get around it...Russia's territorial integrity is guaranteed by their nuclear arsenal.  No other considerations are necessary.  If they had no nukes then the Eastern European geography might be important.  As it is, they'll just nuke the Franco-German morons (please Lord let us not be stupid enough to roll East!) as soon as they cross Tripwire X.  There is no need for an army in the West.  In the East, they need an army as China and Islam don't care about casualties.

That isn't true at all. I suppose I'll have to explain this since it appears there is a prevailing view on this site than nukes are a guarantee of territorial integrity. Funny thing is I have shown all how they are not...
 

And Putin is NOT a return to Bolshevism.  He is a throwback to the Czars.  This is why Solzhenitsyn endorsed him.  Socially, for Russia, he might do great things; it's just a pity about all the rest of the world.  "I can see his point."

However, if Russia is not viable under our conditions, that's just too bad.  Let them split up into oblasts.

And Darth, I bet you we will get nothing out of Russia.  Any cosmetic concession will be negated by Chinese intransigence and will be granted precisely because it will be negated by Chinese intransigence.  They will give us nothing they are not forced to give us. 

You would lose the bet in that case. We have already got things from Russia. And the Chinese cannot compensate Iran in the absence of Russia even if they wanted to. 

@Sentinel,


Does this satisfy your question? Please notice the dates...

Subject: Possibility of a major Russian Military or Geopolitical action within the next 2 years?
DarthAmerica    8/24/2007 10:31:56 PM
I'm thinking Kosovo, Ukraine or Georgia. 

 
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sentinel28a       11/2/2009 3:33:26 PM
Nope.  It just means you made a good, educated guess.  The Russians have been getting nasty with Georgia for some time; I could've probably made the same guess.  Some links would be nice, something besides your word...I trust but verify.
 
On to other subjects:  DA, when was the last time a nuclear-armed country was invaded? 
 
 
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DarthAmerica    @sentinel   11/2/2009 4:00:05 PM

Nope.  It just means you made a good, educated guess.  The Russians have been getting nasty with Georgia for some time; I could've probably made the same guess.  Some links would be nice, something besides your word...I trust but verify.

WTF...lol?? That's how this works Sentinel. All you can do in the end is guess what the other guy is going to do. That "guess" was based on some very thorough research of Russian interest and windows of opportunity.  You aren't going to find "links" or websites that put it all together. That's something only a professional and careful analysis can do which is what I summed up and posted. 

On to other subjects:  DA, when was the last time a nuclear-armed country was invaded? 

Try the The War of Attrition

Try Yom Kippur

Try the Sino Soviet Conflict 

Try the Falklands Conflict 

Try the India vs Pakistan war in 1999 

Thats just off the top of my head. Nuclear weapons are a great deterrent but obviously no guarantee of security by themselves. 

-DA 

 

 
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sentinel28a       11/3/2009 4:11:38 PM
WTF...lol?? That's how this works Sentinel. All you can do in the end is guess what the other guy is going to do. That "guess" was based on some very thorough research of Russian interest and windows of opportunity.  You aren't going to find "links" or websites that put it all together. That's something only a professional and careful analysis can do which is what I summed up and posted. 

So in other words, you have nothing that proves you're right and I'm wrong, other than your educated guess and your word.  Okay...that works both ways, you know.  My educated guess, based on a career in historical study and my word as a Pretty Smart Guy, is that Putin sees an opportunity to shove Obama around, given Obama's propensity to cave in rather than stand firm.
 
That analysis may be wrong, but it carries no less weight than yours.  I suppose this is the spot where you tell me about your long and storied career, of which nothing can be proven.  Which is okay.  For all you know, I could be Rahm Emanuel.  (Better watch out, YelliChink.  We really know you're Glenn Beck.)

Strawman arguments otherwise, DA.  The War of Attrition never went beyond the east bank of the Sinai, which Israel never claimed was theirs.  The Arabs discounted rumors of Israeli nuclear weapons in 1973.  The Sino-Soviet "war" was over a disputed island in the middle of a river--hardly an invasion.  The British were unsure of keeping the Falklands to begin with, so they certainly weren't going to launch a Polaris into Buenos Aires over the place.  The only time your argument works is in the Kargil War of 1999, when both Pakistan and India had nuclear weapons--but India's objective was to clear out that section of Kashmir of Islamist terrorists, something which they made well-known to Pakistan before the war started.
 
What we've been talking about here, you and I, is a full-blown, Operation Barbarossa style invasion across the North German Plain to Moscow.  We both know that's never going to happen.  NATO isn't capable of it and has no intention whatsoever of even trying to attempt it.  Were such an invasion to occur, it would vanish in nuclear fireballs, which is why no one is stupid enough to try invading Russia again--or the US, for that matter. Unfortunately, it's impossible to convince the Russian leadership of this, due to their paranoia and inferiority complex, and need for a boogeyman to scare the Russian public into accepting their leadership. 
 
You want to appease such paranoia.  I, like Harry Truman, am personally sick of babysitting it.  Appeasement only makes war more likely, but that's a concept that the Obama administration can't seem to grasp.  Eventually, I'm sure it will.  I just hope not too many people are killed for that to happen.
 
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