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Subject: Poland and Czech kicked in the nuts by the US
YelliChink    9/17/2009 10:33:06 AM
edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/17/missile.defense.shield/index.html [quote] But Biden explained the logic of doing so, saying Iran -- a key concern for the United States -- was not a threat. "I think we are fully capable and secure dealing with any present or future potential Iranian threat," Biden said in Baghdad, where he is on a brief trip. ... "This is catastrophic for Poland," said the spokeswoman, who declined to be named in line with ministry policy. advertisement Poland and the Czech Republic had based much of their future security policy on getting the missile defenses from the United States. The countries share deep concerns of a future military threat from the east -- namely, Russia -- and may look for other defense assurances from their NATO allies. [unquote]
 
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tigertony    DA   9/20/2009 3:40:31 PM



If Poland's government wanted a US military presence, then it would be for the purpose of essentially guaranteeing a US interest in their security. The US personnel would be hostages.


Considering Poland's history, that would be understandable. Poland has been under the heels of the Russians or the Germans or both. Russia on the other hand has not been successfully occupied since the Mongols. 

I do not see how the Russians can expect their opposition to a US presence in Poland would earn any respect. After all, they stationed their troops 90 miles from our territory for a long time and we didn't throw tantrums over that.

We didn't do it because we knew we could kick them out of Cuba if they became a problem. They knew it too.

I don't see how Russia will find any new motivation to concede anything at this point. They probably believe that Obama is a weakling. And they are in no need to keep grooming their public image the way Obama seems to be.







This is the kind of post that makes me wonder is anybody on this site really interested in actually trying to understand the situation. The entire issue here is huge military and political disadvantage a US Military presence in Poland puts the Russians in. THIS WAS NEVER about Iranian ICBMs, Russian BMs of any kind or the DoD as a tripwire.




Iranian ICBMs:




A dream. Seriously, look at the Norks. Look at the response options. Look how we have successfully held several orders of magnitude more ICBMs at bay for 50 years.




Russian BMs:




Again, please spare me. We've stared down Russian BMs for half a century and we know how to counter that threat. Moreover, the Russians are not suicidal. They haven't been in a position to challenge NATO since the late 1980's and conventionally speaking their position has only deteriorated since then.




DoD Tripwire:




It's called the Polish Border. Get familiar with NATO's mission.







What this is about is the United States placing more and more pressure on the Russians and containing them. Domination of the Northern European plain makes any kind of defense of the Russian interior completely untenable. By having the US Military that close to Russian proper and in that particular geography, the Russians would be in the same kind of predicament they were in when the fought the Nazis. Go look at the invasion routes and how badly Russia suffered due to the Germans controlling this terrain. This BMD strategy was always intended to be used as leverage against Russia.




The comment about Russian troops 90 miles from the US not causing a crisis is almost completely devoid of logic. Russia does not and never has had the kind of expeditionary capability and particularly the Navy and sea lift the United States has. Russian soldiers in Cuba cannot invade and hold terrain in CONUS. But when Russian missiles and other nuclear weapons were there. We had the Cuban Missile Crisis which of course almost ended in nuclear war. This is because Russian missiles there completely undermine any defense we had at that time. Well Poland with a US Military Garrison does that to the Russians. The thing is that the United States isn't planning on invading Russia and we don't need Polish BMD bases. So we could afford to trade it for things we actually do want. Things like Russian cooperation against Iran. The Iranians cannot stay on their current course without RUSSIAN support. The idea here is not war with Iran but to compel them to give in to our demands via diplomacy. THAT MEANS RUSSIAN HELP.




Now, we always have the option of using war. But because of OIF/OEF and the obvious economic difficulties we are facing, a war is not the best choice right now. Defeating the Iranians is going to take A LOT MORE than a few PGMs over  couple of nigh
 
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YelliChink       9/20/2009 4:09:31 PM

Russia is not gonna invade Poland or the Czech republic. Neither is Russia gonna fire missiles at Europe.

This ABM placement in Poland was fixing a problem that did not exist in my opinion. It was also creating problems where there were none before in my opinion.
 
As for using Putin as a scarecrow, that has more to do with local US politics IMHO.

 
It's not fixing a problem that did not exist for the US, but, for Poland and Czech Republic, it is for fixing an old problem. They don't feel like their own policies to be dictated from either Moscow or Brussels, and they want to erect a giant F-U symbol, better middle-finger look-a-like, to make it clear. The US has cut some pretty slashes out of them before granting the project.
 
The US is not entirely disinterested in this strategic deployment. Ukraine and Georgia will be raped when signs of lacking strong US intervention are showing. The US is also losing its leverage to European affairs. Now France and Germany have more say in joint European policy, you'd better listen more carefully.

 
 
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FJV       9/20/2009 4:24:18 PM
It's not fixing a problem that did not exist for the US, but, for Poland and Czech Republic, it is for fixing an old problem. They don't feel like their own policies to be dictated from either Moscow or Brussels, and they want to erect a giant F-U symbol, better middle-finger look-a-like, to make it clear. The US has cut some pretty slashes out of them before granting the project.
 
The US is not entirely disinterested in this strategic deployment. Ukraine and Georgia will be raped when signs of lacking strong US intervention are showing. The US is also losing its leverage to European affairs. Now France and Germany have more say in joint European policy, you'd better listen more carefully.

- And they expect the US to pay in blood for the F-U they raise.
   That is exactly simialr to a little guy in a bar picking a fight and expecting his big "friend" to defend him and take the punches coming
   from the guys he pissed off. I have seen that trick so often it's not funny anymore. I say, good for the US for not buying into that one.
- Ukraine and Georgia are ruled by people very similar to Putin. Helping one Putin to against another is not a good idea IMHO.
  
 

 
 
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YelliChink       9/20/2009 4:30:55 PM

-DA 

 
OK, then whaddaya gonna do when Putin & friends decide it's time to send armor divisions into Georgian and Ukraine in order to persuade them to rejoin the Russian Empire and submit to Vladimir the Great?
 
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YelliChink       9/20/2009 4:47:57 PM


- And they expect the US to pay in blood for the F-U they raise.

   That is exactly simialr to a little guy in a bar picking a fight and expecting his big "friend" to defend him and take the punches coming

   from the guys he pissed off. I have seen that trick so often it's not funny anymore. I say, good for the US for not buying into that one.


- Ukraine and Georgia are ruled by people very similar to Putin. Helping one Putin to against another is not a good idea IMHO.


Then tell me why Polish and Czech soldiers were sent to Iraq? Do you think they send their sons and daughters to Iraq out of belief that the war is justified? Or do you think they did so because this is the form of payment the did during GWB admin in exchange for US military presence in the homeland? They risked so much to do this that they pissed at then leftist government in France and Germany.
 
And I think your assessment on Georgian and Ukrainian politics is totally wrong. They may be stupid asshats, but not near the way leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are. Beware of what you wish for. It's better to deal with weaker Russia when Putin's gang is in power, then when he has swallowed Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and start to demand a land passage to Königsberg.
 
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CJH       9/20/2009 5:34:04 PM



If Poland's government wanted a US military presence, then it would be for the purpose of essentially guaranteeing a US interest in their security. The US personnel would be hostages.


Considering Poland's history, that would be understandable. Poland has been under the heels of the Russians or the Germans or both. Russia on the other hand has not been successfully occupied since the Mongols. 

I do not see how the Russians can expect their opposition to a US presence in Poland would earn any respect. After all, they stationed their troops 90 miles from our territory for a long time and we didn't throw tantrums over that.

We didn't do it because we knew we could kick them out of Cuba if they became a problem. They knew it too.

I don't see how Russia will find any new motivation to concede anything at this point. They probably believe that Obama is a weakling. And they are in no need to keep grooming their public image the way Obama seems to be.







This is the kind of post that makes me wonder is anybody on this site really interested in actually trying to understand the situation. The entire issue here is huge military and political disadvantage a US Military presence in Poland puts the Russians in. THIS WAS NEVER about Iranian ICBMs, Russian BMs of any kind or the DoD as a tripwire.




Iranian ICBMs:




A dream. Seriously, look at the Norks. Look at the response options. Look how we have successfully held several orders of magnitude more ICBMs at bay for 50 years.




Russian BMs:




Again, please spare me. We've stared down Russian BMs for half a century and we know how to counter that threat. Moreover, the Russians are not suicidal. They haven't been in a position to challenge NATO since the late 1980's and conventionally speaking their position has only deteriorated since then.




DoD Tripwire:




It's called the Polish Border. Get familiar with NATO's mission.







What this is about is the United States placing more and more pressure on the Russians and containing them. Domination of the Northern European plain makes any kind of defense of the Russian interior completely untenable. By having the US Military that close to Russian proper and in that particular geography, the Russians would be in the same kind of predicament they were in when the fought the Nazis. Go look at the invasion routes and how badly Russia suffered due to the Germans controlling this terrain. This BMD strategy was always intended to be used as leverage against Russia.




The comment about Russian troops 90 miles from the US not causing a crisis is almost completely devoid of logic. Russia does not and never has had the kind of expeditionary capability and particularly the Navy and sea lift the United States has. Russian soldiers in Cuba cannot invade and hold terrain in CONUS. But when Russian missiles and other nuclear weapons were there. We had the Cuban Missile Crisis which of course almost ended in nuclear war. This is because Russian missiles there completely undermine any defense we had at that time. Well Poland with a US Military Garrison does that to the Russians. The thing is that the United States isn't planning on invading Russia and we don't need Polish BMD bases. So we could afford to trade it for things we actually do want. Things like Russian cooperation against Iran. The Iranians cannot stay on their current course without RUSSIAN support. The idea here is not war with Iran but to compel them to give in to our demands via diplomacy. THAT MEANS RUSSIAN HELP.




Now, we always have the option of using war. But because of OIF/OEF and the obvious economic difficulties we are facing, a war is not the best choice right now. Defeating the Iranians is going to take A LOT MORE than a few PGMs over  couple of nigh
 
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CJH       9/20/2009 6:02:34 PM
One other thing -
The 70s Soviets seemed to be employing a strategy aimed at isolating the US from Western Europe and intimidating Western Europe.
We need to watch for any attempt by the Russians to sew distrust between the US and its European partners thus splitting us from them. What we are seeing could be part of such an attempt.
 
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sentinel28a       9/20/2009 7:20:44 PM
When I see the leaders of Ukraine and Belarus murdering political opponents, then I'll start believing they're just as bad as Putin.
 
I can't believe I'm reading this.  We're trusting Putin to help us with Iran when he has shown no, repeat, no inclination to do so in the past?  He has nothing to gain from helping us.  Iran is one of Russia's better clients.  Why should he help us?  He's got us over a barrel right now in Afghanistan, and now we've caved in on two of our better allies.  Putin's laughing his ass off at us right now, thanks to our "smart power" President who's yet to meet a dictator he doesn't like.
 
A question that I don't see answered is this: why does Russia object so much to a small ABM system in two countries that don't even border them any longer?  Russia's ICBMs could easily swamp the system, if they were lunatic enough to actually launch on Europe.  Either Russia is once more dealing with its 500-year long inferiority complex (fearing an EU invasion? Fearing a US invasion?!), or this is all about regional power--in that Putin wants to dominate Eastern Europe like his idol Stalin, and cut the West out completely.  Instead of telling him to shove it and not letting a thug dictate our foreign policy, we're bending over for him.
 
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CJH       9/20/2009 7:45:39 PM
"Putin's laughing his ass off at us right now, thanks to our "smart power" President who's yet to meet a dictator he doesn't like."
 
Smart power, LOL.
 
I heard the purported observation of someone (perhaps his USNA room mate) who was supposed to have known Jimmy Carter at Annapolis. He said he never saw Jimmy Carter open a textbook outside of the classroom.
 
Now, Jimmy Carter has to be very intelligent. But he was a one term president who is generally not considered to have been very successful considering Afghanistan and the 400 day Iranian hostage crisis.
 
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tigertony    FJV   9/20/2009 8:22:00 PM




It's not fixing a problem that did not exist for the US, but, for Poland and Czech Republic, it is for fixing an old problem. They don't feel like their own policies to be dictated from either Moscow or Brussels, and they want to erect a giant F-U symbol, better middle-finger look-a-like, to make it clear. The US has cut some pretty slashes out of them before granting the project.


 

The US is not entirely disinterested in this strategic deployment. Ukraine and Georgia will be raped when signs of lacking strong US intervention are showing. The US is also losing its leverage to European affairs. Now France and Germany have more say in joint European policy, you'd better listen more carefully.





- And they expect the US to pay in blood for the F-U they raise.

   That is exactly simialr to a little guy in a bar picking a fight and expecting his big "friend" to defend him and take the punches coming

   from the guys he pissed off. I have seen that trick so often it's not funny anymore. I say, good for the US for not buying into that one.


- Ukraine and Georgia are ruled by people very similar to Putin. Helping one Putin to against another is not a good idea IMHO.


  


 




 





   Since when did the EU care about taking all those "American Pints"? 
 
   And if the EU would have stood firm against a little man "America could have kept it all in our veins at home".
 
 
                                                                       tigertony                                       
  
 
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