The United States announced late Sept. 17 that it would abandon a
plan for placing ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in
Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead of the planned system, which was
intended to defend primarily against a potential crude intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) threat from Iran against the United States,
the administration chose a restructured system that will begin by
providing some protection to Europe using U.S. Navy ships based on
either the North or Mediterranean seas. The Obama administration has
argued that this system will be online sooner than the previously
planned system and that follow-on systems will protect the United
States. It was also revealed that the latest National Intelligence
Estimate finds that Iran is further away from having a true
intercontinental missile capability than previously thought, meaning
protecting Europe is a more pressing concern than protecting the United
States.

Poland and the Czech Republic responded with a sense of U.S. betrayal, while Russia expressed its satisfact....
Russian envoy to NATO Dmitri Rogozin said Moscow welcomes the decision
and sees it as an appropriate response to Russia?s offer to allow U.S.
supplies to flow into Afghanistan through Russia. Later, the Russians
added another reward: They tentatively announced the cancellation of
plans to deploy short-range ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, which
they previously had planned as a response to the components of the U.S.
BMD system planned for Poland and the Czech Republic.

Polish Despair and Russian Delight

Polish despair...
(and Warsaw seemed far more upset than Prague) and Russian satisfaction
must be explained to begin to understand the global implications. To do
this, we must begin with an odd fact: The planned BMD system...
did not in and of itself enhance Polish national security in any way
even if missiles had actually targeted Warsaw, since the long-range
interceptors in Poland were positioned there to protect the continental
United States; missiles falling on Poland would likely be outside the
engagement envelope of the original Ground-based Midcourse Defense
interceptors. The system was designed to handle very few missiles
originating from the Middle East, and the Russians obviously have more
than a few missiles.

Given that even small numbers of missiles easily could overwhelm the system, the BMD system in no way directly ...:
The Russian strike capability — against both Poland and the continental
United States — was not affected at all. Indeed, placing the system on
ships is no less threatening than placing them on land. So, if it was
the BMD system the Russians were upset with, they should be no less
upset by the redeployment at sea. Yet Moscow is pleased by what has
happened — which means the BMD system was not really the issue.

For Poland, the BMD system was of little importance. What was important was that in placing the system in Poland, the United States obviously was pre