Very true indeed. Then why should the US give shit about what Russians think?

 

Russia is irrelevant  in Iranian crisis. That would not be effective anyway. India has showed that they are completely out of any interest in doing so. Chinese won't comply, and so won't Pakistanis.

 

The sad thing is that we will probably see another six million Jews murdered. Israelis have good intel and they know that Iranians aren't doing things like Arabs. They also don't have access to Iraqi and Turkish air space in order to carry out necessary strikes. They also don't have enough capability in doing so. Iranians have evacuated and dispersed their sites, so that a prolonged air campaign is needed to rid them off nuke capability. But that is guaranteed situation which Iran's thugocracy will open a can of whoop-ass via terrorist clients.  To prevent that, you need a full air-land-sea invasion. That's not gonna happen until six million Jews are once again murdered.

Yes, I am fully aware that they will be compensated with PAC3 option. Big deal. And, if you read carefully on the previously posted articles, you find traces that the "professional analyst" actually wrote about Obama administration falls into Russian trap. They bet on Obama falling into Iran panic, and they gained good position on that. Since you are fully aware that Russians don't really feel like Iran to be nuke armed, why is it necessary to slap Poles in the face?

 

So Iran can't survive without Russian support? Oh really? Do Russian buy Iranian oil? Nope. Do Iranian buy food, energy and other necessary goods from Russia? No. Heck they don't even drink Vodka. Only weapons, and they get it through Syria. They can change to Chinese weapons anytime they want. So waddaya gonna do about it? The whole diplomatic scenario is a flop. The only thing I can see is to get Russian delay on weapons shipment to create a window of opportunity.

 

Also, the Aegis solution is useless to both Russian and Iranian missile threat. Baltic sea is the easiest for aggressive mine warfare, and we all know that Iranian threat is not about Europe. The best way to nuke Israel is not through ballistic missiles, which SM3 could intercept off the coast of Tel Aviv, but rather through Hezbollah in Lebanon.  They do have some funny toys, you know.

 

One reason why US foreign policy is in such difficult position as the US have a good record of double crossing and betrayal of allies. You know the point is not about missile defense, but guarantee of US involvement to their security. So don't think Poles and Czechs will buy into the seaborne thing. There is no replacement to US forces on their soil. They could shot out their PAC3 inventory in days, and get no resupply if the US shows no interest of involvement.

 

And, at last, Jamie M. Fly who wrote the article that I posted here, is not your average MFM journalist:

www.foreignpolicyi.org/node/69

[quote]

Prior to joining FPI, Mr. Fly served in the Bush administration at the National Security Council (2008-2009) and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (2005-2008). He was Director for Counterproliferation Strategy at the National Security Council, where his portfolio included the Iranian nuclear program, Syria, missile defense, chemical weapons, proliferation finance, and other counterproliferation issues.

[unquote]

I think I understand.  When Ahmadinejad talks about wiping Israel off the face of the earth and claims the Holocaust was one big lie, he's really just playing to the crowd in Iran.  He really doesn't mean it.  Just like Hitler really wrote Mein Kampf as a really long campaign speech.  He really didn't mean all that stuff about killing the Jews, securing living space in Russia, etc.

 

The Iranian people don't want to commit suicide, I agree.  What about their leadership?  You know, the ones killing their own people in the streets for rigging an "election," the one Obama insists was perfectly legitimate?

 

Deja vu.  I'm pretty sure we've had this conversation before, DA.  For some reason, you're a lot more comfortable trusting dictators than you are democratically-elected governments. 

 

As far as war with Iran goes--we may find ourselves at war with them whether we like it or not.  Appeasement only encourages people like Ahmadinejad, and makes war more likely.  Ahmadinejad thinks Obama's a weak dick.  Do you think he'll agree to play nice?  Hell no, just as Hitler figured that Chamberlain handing him Czechslovakia meant that the Allies wouldn't interfere with him slicing off pieces of Poland.

 

Considering that Iranian-made bombs may have killed some of your men in Iraq, DA, I'd think you'd be a little more reluctant to trust them in anything. 

1. What Russian help? They built their own reactors and centrifuges with some help from DPRK and PRC. I've even read reports of Chinese visitors in DPRK said the only other visitors in their hotel were Iranians. And the US gave Iranians detonator design after a botched intel plot. In the end, the only way to strangle Iran is to put a total sanction on them, which will only work if China, India, Pakistan and all other ME countries participate. That's not going to happen.

 

2. Yeah, that was nonsense. I guess you wouldn't believe that Hitler would murder 6 million Jews 70 years ago. After all, he just wanted all Germans live under one country, one flag and ein Führer.

I respect that we disagree on this. But you two have a lot to learn in terms of being able to objectively review the data and come to rational conclusions. Going back and forth when the truth is simply going to waste time. I can only encourage you to read the analysis and comments from others and myself and eventually it will make sense. 

In sum,

the EU BMD issue is about Iran

The USA started it to gain leverage on Russia

Russia is terrified of DoD presence in Poland for previously stated reasons 

Iran is dependent on Russia to continue it's current policy

Russian support is crucial for Sanctions and OEF 

Just focus on that.

-DA 

www.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/opinion/21iht-edcohen.html?_r=1&utm_campaign=rcw-today-newsletter&utm_medium=email&adxnnl=1&partner=rss&emc=rss?utm_source=newsletter&adxnnlx=1253543103-zd68CAKE8Fl1KXrkm4CYIQ

 

[quote]

The (Polish) officer was referring to the fact that the announcement came on Sept. 17, the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland. A gesture to Russia on this date — a ?brave? decision said Vladimir Putin — was the rough equivalent for the Poles of their announcing concessions to a U.S. foe on 9/11.

Poland is now one of the very few places in Europe that prefers former President Bush to Obama.

[unquote]

 

Czechs are less disgruntle about this, but they are clear about what they want, and have Plan B for this.

 

respekt.ihned.cz/english/c1-38394220-they-took-away-the-radar

 

[quote]

 The American decision is a lost chance for us. The Czech Republic with American soldiers on its soil could have felt more firmly based in the West, it could have been sure that it plays a certain role in the American military plans and it would have been safer from an armed attack. The Czech government was right in answering the original American call and showing its willingness to participate on the collective security of western allies.

[unquote]

Darth, like I said--you really should go all-out for a position in Obama's administration.  You have the same sort of "I am right, everyone else is wrong, don't confuse me, my mind is made up" mentality.  You think everyone else is an idiot child for daring to disagree with you, and that anyone who does disagree should shut up and listen to their self-proclaimed betters, so you should fit right in.

 

I have read what people with a lot more foreign policy chops than you or I have said, some of whom are Obama supporters.  They're saying that Obama just made a big mistake.  I don't expect you to agree with that, given your apparent conviction that Obama can do no wrong, but you're going to have to do better than implying that YelliChink and I are morons for not agreeing with you.

 

We do indeed depend on Russia for Afghanistan operations, but that would be less a problem if Obama hadn't let Putin walk over him over Bagram.  (By the way, I notice that Obama's waffling on sending more troops to Afghanistan, although McChrystal says we'll lose the war if we don't.  Can't wait to listen to your explanation if Obama decides to cut and run.)  If the deal is essentially that Russia cuts off our air bridge if we hadn't pulled the ABMs, I would hate that, but at least it would make some sense.  It may be just that, but Obama could've had the courtesy to inform Poland and the Czechs before jerking the rug out from under them.  Hillary should've been on the next flight out of Andrews, not calling them up on the phone.

 

I love how you keep saying the Russians will help us with sanctions, despite there being no evidence of it, despite the Russians themselves saying they won't link the two, despite the Russians finalizing sales of SAMs to Iran, and even despite the Russians saying that, hey, they may not move those SS-20s after all.  Like Obama, you're grasping at straws to explain the biggest foreign policy balls-up since Iran-Contra and anything ever done by Jimmy Carter.

 

YelliChink and I have already made our cases for what you're asking us to concentrate on.  If you actually read anyone's posts, you'd probably realize that.

1. EU BMD is about Russia, not Iran. Iran has never made any threat to any country in Europe. They didn't threat Turkey for hundreds of years. It is Israel and Saudis they are threatening.

 

2. The opposite is true. The Russians started to gain leverage on the US.

 

3. Poland is humiliated and terrified of being sold out by the US for previously happened historical events.

 

4. Iran does not depend on Russia for anything but few weapons systems.

 

5. Russia will not support a sanction, and there will be no sanction. OEF does not need Russian support, only added convenience of flight paths from Germany.

 

6. The scope of this event is very wide, and we certainly shouldn't limit our discussion. For example, how other allies would regard this event?