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Subject: Is saving money coming back into fashion?
Zhang Fei    11/17/2008 11:54:59 PM
(Quote) Spending less has become a new religion for Uptown couple Bree and Erik Liscinsky. The 25-year-old newlyweds have learned to cook to reduce their tab for Lean Cuisines and Bertolli pasta meals. They search the Internet for coupons, brown-bag their lunches and steer clear of the dry cleaner. Even the family dog knows times have changed. His walker is only coming three times a week, down from five, and his nails are being trimmed at home, which saves $12 a pop. "He doesn't get groomed anymore," said Bree, who knows she and Erik will need a big cash down payment when they buy a condo. Greed is no longer good. Thrift is in. Again. For more than a generation, the road to prosperity has been paved with credit cards, home-equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages, forms of debt that middle-class Americans became comfortable with and relied on. But the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression has led to harsh criticism about how Americans were funding their lifestyles. The scolding is hitting home with both overleveraged companies as well as individuals, who are cutting back out of necessity or fear. Starbucks' fourth-quarter profit plunged 97 percent. Electronics retailer Best Buy scaled back its year-end outlook, citing a "seismic" slowdown in consumer spending. Car sales were off 32 percent in the third quarter and retailers are predicting a decline in holiday sales this year for the first time in decades. More telling, perhaps, the U.S. personal savings rate, which measures disposable income that isn't spent, zoomed up to near 3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, after staying below 1 percent for most of the past four years. Yet the nation has embraced frugality numerous times before only to cast it aside when the economy rebounds. The minimalism that followed the recession of 1990-91, for instance, melted away as the stock market and economy charted an upward course for the rest of the decade. Are we shelving profligacy for good or just putting it on the back burner for a little while? Americans' attitudes about debt and savings appear to be fundamentally changing, according to economists and market research experts who have recently interviewed thousands of consumers. Weaving a financial safety net is becoming more important than having the largest plasma-screen TV on the block or the season's hottest handbag. "We think this is going to become part of a new way of life," said Madelyn Hochstein, president of DYG, a marketing firm that conducts social research. It isn't something that just happened, she said. Americans' attitudes about money began to change two years ago when the housing sector was still booming and mortgage lenders were competing for customers. At a subconscious level, Hochstein said, consumers were uneasy about the rapid run-up in home values and knew it couldn't go on forever. Back in 2006 and 2007, more people began agreeing with the statement, "If I lost the job I have now, I couldn't get one as good." Trend spotter Faith Popcorn agrees that consumer attitudes toward saving are undergoing a profound change. Consumers are feeling "nouveau poor," she says, which means it is cool not to spend money and to brag about how little you're shelling out, a practice Popcorn has dubbed "one downsmanship." Andrew Fereday can relate. He and his wife, AnnMarie, used to dine out frequently in Chicago and head to bars with their friends. A $250 bar tab wasn't considered shocking, and cabbing it was a way of life. But after the economic turmoil of the last few months, the Feredays and their friends have dialed it back. "The couples we hang out with are much more likely to come over and have a beer rather than going out and running up a ridiculous bar tab," says Andrew, a 25-year-old insurance broker. "I never expected to send an Evite and have everybody say, 'That sounds like a great idea for a Friday or Saturday night.' " The Feredays also are bringing their own bottles of wine to restaurants, shopping for furniture on Overstock.com and taking the No. 72 bus even if they are dressed up. They also are maintaining a $5,000 cash cushion in their savings account and increasing it by $250 each month. In Skokie, Dave Charles and Laura Whitlock are embracing their own version of frugality. They bought their first house last summer after having a second child and have been unable to sell their Chicago condo. Instead of two lengthy road trips a year, the couple is going away for a few long weekends. Dave, who designs residential heating and cooling systems, is changing his own oil again, and the 20-month-old is wearing hand-me-downs rather than Baby Gap. Instead of a new kitchen, Charles and Whitlock bought new appliances, ordered a new counter top and changed the knobs instead of getting new cabinets. Savings: $6,000. "I think back to when I was a kid and all the things we didn't have then that we have now," Charles said. "I had nic
 
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Ashley-the-man       11/18/2008 11:47:11 AM
The Fed and a rising savings rate in the U.S. - sounds like throwing raw meat to a tiger.  Politicians and pundits talk about a low savings rate in this country, but the Fed fed is as comfortable with high savings rates as is Dracula who has sipped too much coffee and is stabed by a ray of light before he can get back to the coffin. 
 
We are hearing talk of a recession that will have as a causal agent reduced consumer spending.  The $600 we got to stimulate the economy was done for the purpose of giving it to people who would go out and blow it, not save it.  The Japanese have had their depression twenty years ago because their birth cycle peaked a generation before our present cycle.  The Japanese are real savers and when times got tough they saved even more.
 
Stock prices are already down to levels of the worse recessions since the great D, and we're not even tecnically in recession yet.  Stock, home, and commodity prices could drop to 50% of their highs over the next three years.  Andrew and Ann Marie can help their family budget by bring their wine to the restaurant, but they are not being patriotic by spending up to and over their income - shame. 
 
Call me selfish, call me unpatriotic, but if I had to purchase a home today, instead of buying a $250,000 house with at $1750 PITI, I would look at a lease option with $5,000 - $7500 as option consideration, a monthly lease payment of $1,000 with a three to five year term.  If the market goes south to $150,000 for the house I walk away, out the option consideration, but also ahead by the $750 per month I have saved.  If the house goes up in value then I execute my option to buy at $250,000 and lock in a nice 30 year rate that is low due to continued government stimulation and efforts to drive down interest rates. 
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       11/20/2008 1:35:15 AM
I know alot of people who have canceled cable or reduced their subscription to basic service, tossed internet or bundled with neighbors under a business account ( or work out 50/50 arrangements, one account holder, two-three users who have a separate contract splitting the costs).  I haven't seen too many cutbacks at local coffee joints including starbucks.  People will pick and choose small, cheap luxuries and dump the excessive stuff. 
 
The housing market in Denver is pretty interesting, houses below 300k move due to bargain shoppers and investor groups.  Above 750k the market is nearly frozen.

 
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PlatypusMaximus       11/20/2008 10:09:36 AM
Nowhere near as popular as the current: going into debt to free up credit markets to go into debt.
 
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