The Strategypage is a comprehensive summary of military news and affairs.
 News As History - November 19, 2008

Dunnigan's and Bay's Latest

Advertisement



New Strategy - Wargames at Discount Prices
1.Squad Battles: Winter War
2.Silent War
3.Manoeuvre
4.Gallic Wars
5.Fast Action Battle: The Bulge

100+ Computer and Board games all with free shipping.
 
 
 

Online Giving

Utah SEO Firm

Xango

Smiley Gifts for Babies

Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use
United States Discussion Board
Sign In   Return to Topic Page
Subject: This is how Bush and Paulson plan to resolve the financial crisis
Nanheyangrouchuan    9/18/2008 10:36:03 PM
By selling our assets to China.

"http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ao0BD9Zuhy3E&refer=home"

Morgan Stanley Said to Be in Talks With China's CIC (Update2)

By Christine Harper

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest independent U.S. securities firm, may sell a larger stake to China Investment Corp. and is in talks about a possible merger with Wachovia Corp., a person familiar with the matter said.

China's state-controlled fund may buy as much as 49 percent of the New York-based investment bank, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks aren't public and may end in no agreement. Morgan Stanley resumed its decline on the New York Stock Exchange, falling as much as 22 percent.

Morgan Stanley, led by Chief Executive Officer John Mack, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm, tumbled the most ever yesterday as the deepening credit crunch fueled concern their funding sources are drying up. Morgan Stanley shares plunged 42 percent this week through yesterday after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch & Co. sold itself to Bank of America Corp.

``Morgan Stanley must be talking to any suitor,'' said Roger Lister, a credit analyst at the DBRS Inc. rating firm in New York. ``But I'm not sure whether a merger with a bank will solve the problems. It's not a deposit-base issue but a crisis of confidence. And getting a capital infusion from the Chinese or somebody else brings huge dilution due to the depressed stock price, which scares investors even more.''

Morgan Stanley fell $4.32, or 20 percent, to $17.43 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading at 11:57 a.m. Wachovia rose 11.3 percent to $10.15.

Gao Xiqing in U.S.

China Investment Corp. bought a 9.9 percent stake in Morgan Stanley in December after the firm reported a quarterly loss. CIC's president, Gao Xiqing, is in the U.S. with Wei Christianson, who runs Morgan Stanley's business in China, the Financial Times reported today.

If Morgan Stanley ``could come out and say we're raising this slug of capital to stabilize our balance sheet and operate at a lower level of leverage going forward, that would help,'' said Ben Wallace, a securities analyst at Grimes & Co. in Westborough, Massachusetts, which manages $850 million. ``They're so levered that they need to have the confidence of the market, and they don't have that right now.''

Mack, 63, addressed employees this morning in a crowded meeting in New York, saying the firm's earnings and balance sheet were sound, according to people who attended or watched the firm- wide video broadcast. He said Morgan Stanley was in stronger shape than Lehman or Bear Stearns Co., which was forced to sell itself to JPMorgan Chase & Cos. earlier this year.

Talk With Pandit

Two of the attendees, who declined to be named because they weren't authorized to speak to the press, said Mack sounded upbeat and confident.

Mark Lake, a spokesman at Morgan Stanley in New York, declined to comment.

Mack tried unsuccessfully earlier this week to persuade Vikram Pandit, CEO of Citigroup Inc., to combine their two companies, the New York Times reported today, citing people briefed on the talks. A Citigroup spokeswoman, Christina Pretto, said comments the Times attributed to Mack were ``never stated.''

Mack got a call from Wachovia yesterday indicating interest, said a person with knowledge of the matter. Talks about a deal with Wachovia have ``advanced,'' CNBC reported today. A merger with Wachovia could involve dividing the assets of both companies into two separate entities, a ``good bank'' and a ``bad bank,'' the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter.

Wachovia Costs

``The smartest people at this firm are focused on solutions,'' Lake, the Morgan Stanley spokesman, said yesterday.

Wachovia spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown said it was bank policy not to comment on ``market rumors or merger speculation.''

Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, plunged 21 percent yesterday after saying it would support $494 million of Lehman credits held by its Evergreen Investments money market funds. The lender, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, had a market value of $19.7 billion yesterday, 18 percent less than Morgan Stanley's $24.1 billion.

Wachovia Chief Executive Officer Robert Steel, hired in July to replace Kennedy Thompson, is cutting $1.5 billion of expenses and reducing risk to cope with mounting losses from Wachovia's $122 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages.

Merrill analyst Guy Moszkowski called a deal with Wachovia ``unlikely'' and said in a note today that a combination with Wachovia would ``saddle Morgan Stanley with considerable credit risk.''

``It is difficult for us to perceive a strategic benefit for Morgan Stanley, which would be merging with the weakest of the five major U.S. banks,'' Moszkowski wrote.

Short Sellers

Morgan Stanley and Goldman have defended their business model, saying they have adequate capital and don't need the deposit funding that banks have. Mack lambasted short sellers for pushing his firm's shares lower.

In a memo to employees yesterday, Mack said the management committee is ``taking every step possible to stop this irresponsible action in the market,'' and he urged employees to contact clients to reassure them that the firm is performing strongly and has plenty of capital.

``There is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit-default spreads,'' Mack wrote in the memo. ``We're in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumors, and short sellers are driving our stock down.''

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may require hedge funds to disclose their short-sale positions and plans to subpoena the funds for their communication records, Chairman Christopher Cox said in a statement late yesterday.

Default Swaps

Short sellers try to profit by betting stock prices will fall. In a short sale, traders borrow shares from their broker that they then sell. If the price drops, they buy back the stock, return it to their broker and pocket the difference.

Credit-default swaps on Morgan Stanley rose to 900 basis points after falling earlier to 870 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. Contracts on Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, rose to 695 basis points after falling to as low as 685 basis points. They are down from 747 basis points yesterday, CMA data show.

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt or to hedge against losses. The value of the contracts increases when investor sentiment deteriorates and the cost of protection rises.

Morgan Stanley's plunge may add impetus to calls from Democrats in Congress for a broader effort by policy makers to address the financial crisis, including setting up a government agency to take on devalued assets.

`Unscrew It'

``The private market screwed itself up and they need the government to come and help them unscrew it,'' House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters late yesterday after top lawmakers met with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

Frank this week proposed considering an agency to ``deal with all the bad paper out there'' and get financial markets ``out of the box'' they are in.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 18, 2008 12:08 EDT
 
Quote    Reply
 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics

Email Me When A New Comment Is Made
Show Only Poster Name and Title     Sort in Reverse Order Posted

SGTObvious       9/19/2008 2:35:20 PM

 
While I don't necessarily agree with it, I see the logic in the strategy.
 
It would be selling the Chinese something that is weak and fragile right now, but has an illustrious past and a strong future potential.
 
The Chinese would see the obvious:  It only has value if it is kept secure and stable. 
 
And the Chinese would recognize the theme:  Co-opt the opposition.  If you can't beat them, employ them. 
 
But the potential payoff is great, so they'd go along with it, knowing all along it co-opts them, forces on Beijing a strong self-interest in Wall Street.  A minor panic on Wall Street in 2010 would cause Chinese investors to lose billions, and they'll know it. 
 
It's one of those things that is either stupid, or masterful geopolitical kung fu;  hard to tell.
 
And the Chinese would appreciate that, too, considering that a stock character of the shlock standard kung fu movie churned out by the thousand in  China is the old master who seems to be a clownish buffoon, whose moves look clumsy, silly, and oafish, but somehow block the attacks of the nimble young bad guys.
 
SGTObvious
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Zhang Fei       9/19/2008 4:05:23 PM
This is an excellent idea. Morgan is about to take its shareholders to the cleaners. On the principle of "better you than me", it's would be great if the Chinese actually took some of the load. Unfortunately, the Chinese seem to have figured out that their role in this is to play the sucker, and rejected Morgan's entreaties.
 
Quote    Reply

Zhang Fei       9/19/2008 4:11:21 PM
By the way, Morgan is a publicly-traded company, whose management wants to save their jobs. Bush has nothing to do with Morgan's decision to offer the Chinese the mother of all concrete overshoes - given its dire financial situation - an equity stake.
 
Quote    Reply

Nanheyangrouchuan       9/20/2008 6:54:56 PM

By the way, Morgan is a publicly-traded company, whose management wants to save their jobs. Bush has nothing to do with Morgan's decision to offer the Chinese the mother of all concrete overshoes - given its dire financial situation - an equity stake.


They are a publicly traded company and the upper ranks will get nice golden parachutes regardless of what happens.  It would have been someone like Paulson to make the overture to China to buy into MS but make no mistake the PRC was demanding 49% control for its 49% stake.  And MS is part of the US's financial infrastructure.
 
The only defense I would have for Bush is that everyone including Paulson lined up in front of him and told him everything was OK.  But Paulson would have known about these potential troubles (and the troubles we have yet to hear about at GS with their 30 to 1 debt to equity ratio) and is working quickly to bail out his executive buddies with our and our great grandkids money.
 
The referees were removed from the field by the White House in the name of "free markets".  Now where are free market principles when thieves and liars have to pay for their bad decisions? Not too big to fail, just too well connected.
 
At least Bush could issue an executive order seizing all executive compensation and maybe even putting liens against executives' existing assets as part of this bailout. That would certainly remove at least $100-$200 million from the bottom  line of this travesty of so-called "free market principles". 
The new Wall St. philosophy: "Don't regulate me or make sure I am not breaking the law, just bail me out with other peoples' money."
 
BTW, when are lenders going to be punished for giving out loans to people they knew couldn't afford them?
 

 
Quote    Reply

Nanheyangrouchuan    bailing out foreign banks   9/21/2008 1:42:10 PM
Potentially including banks under the control of hostile governments like China (through the BOC, who has branches in NYC and LA).
 
"http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13690.html"



 
Quote    Reply

Zhang Fei       9/21/2008 7:55:14 PM
BTW, when are lenders going to be punished for giving out loans to people they knew couldn't afford them?

Knew is a strong word. I think they believed, as in every other financial mania (tulips, internet, et al), those fatal words - "This time, it's different". This is why a lot of CEO's rode their stock losses into the ground, and even bought more stock as their share prices fell. Everyone, from home buyers to mortgage securities investors, believed that home value to income ratios in America would start to approach the high levels of Europe and the rest of the developed world. They were wrong. 
 
Quote    Reply

Nanheyangrouchuan       9/21/2008 10:28:29 PM

BTW, when are lenders going to be punished for giving out loans to people they knew couldn't afford them?




Knew is a strong word. I think they believed, as in every other financial mania (tulips, internet, et al), those fatal words - "This time, it's different". This is why a lot of CEO's rode their stock losses into the ground, and even bought more stock as their share prices fell. Everyone, from home buyers to mortgage securities investors, believed that home value to income ratios in America would start to approach the high levels of Europe and the rest of the developed world. They were wrong. 


A potential borrower walks in with no down payment, stated income and no documentation and probably average credit. 
 Can the banks and mortgage companies really play stupid just because they decided not to do proper due diligence, which in most cases would involve nothing more than a credit and background check?
 
The lenders didn't care because they knew they could package the loans and sell them.
 
 
Quote    Reply

Nanheyangrouchuan    Comrades, Bush, Paulson and Bernanke   9/21/2008 10:31:54 PM
I still wonder how much Bush was kept in the dark, but I have no doubt Paulson and to a lesser extent Bernanke had a pretty good idea of how bad things were, are and will be.
 
"http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_10513985"


"In the past two weeks, Roubini has been lashing out at the Bush administration on his blog. He calls the president, Treasury secretary and Fed chairman "comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke" and brands them as "laissez faire voodoo-economics zealots."

He says the United States has turned into the "United Socialist State Republic of America," bringing "socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street" and making sure "profits are privatized and losses are socialized.""


 
Quote    Reply

warpig       9/22/2008 1:37:09 PM
Well, I admit I know nothing about the details of his charges, but it doesn't help his case with at least me to so obviously demonstrate that he clearly doesn't know the definitions of the terms he uses:  Laissez faire economics and things like government bail-outs are mutually exclusive ideas.
 
 
Quote    Reply

StrategyWorld.com© 1998 - 2008StrategyWorld.com. All rights Reserved. StrategyWorld.com, StrategyPage.com, FYEO, For Your Eyes Only and Al Nofi's CIC are all trademarks of StrategyWorld.com Privacy Policy