UBL & Zawaheri -- are we hot or cold?

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Subject: UBL & Zawaheri -- are we hot or cold?
HYPOCENTER 1/11/2007 3:28:31 AM

Any updates on these two guys? A lot has been going on lately: --the busted airliner plot in the UK (the bloodiest month in Iraq yet, during Ramadan) --the Democratic victory in both the house and senate (like they probably care, but you know what I mean) --the hanging of Saddam (a major event in itself -- especially the chaos & controversy that surrounded it) --the recent attack on AQ in Somalia.... (we're killing them, their being pushed out and they're losing) --Bushes recent speech on a new strategy for Iraq (troop increases, etc.) --Plus it's 2007, a new year... and they're long overdue. Usually, UBL and Zawaheri love to blab about stuff to spout their rhetoric. Well, plenty of world events have occurred for them to comment on, yet we've heard nothing. Not one peep. No new videos or statements. Anyone else find this strange? I'm thinking we must be getting very close and they're really feeling the heat which has caused them to go deep into hiding... so deep they've apparently decided it's too risky to be making videos/statements of any kind. If this is the case, the really interesting question then becomes: is he hiding in one single location for extremely long durations, or is he jumping around from location to location--never staying at any one place for very long? The answer to that question is the key to getting him. I have a hunch we'll have some major breakthroughs this year. So much has been happening, I just do not believe they can contain their silence for much longer, they can't stay silent forever. Especially bin laden... I think its been over a year or two since his last video message. We're bound to catch a break, and soon, I can feel it. 2007 just might be the year we get one or both of these guys.

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Ashley-the-man 1/11/2007 10:38:58 AM

"I'm thinking we must be getting very close and they're really feeling the heat which has caused them to go deep into hiding... so deep they've apparently decided it's too risky to be making videos/statements of any kind. "

What intelligence is there that leads us to believe anything other than that UBL is dead? UBL makes a video of himself, puts it in a ziploc bag, waits a few weeks while he moves away from his location and send off the tape. No danger involved here.

What has changed from 911 is the fact that the U.S. and Britain and some other western countries are willing to bring the fight to al Qaeda and with great intensity. UBL counted on the west to cower before his minions. True, the followers believe that they have up to 1,000 years for revenge, but this particular skirmish has brought home to UBL the need to modify his strategy.

The 911attacks did not originate from UBL's imagination. Khalid Shiek Mohammad and Ramzi Yousef conceived theplan and it was filtered up to UBL. After modification and the logistics support UBL could provide it was set in motion. The success of the attack relied on a target that was not alert to the extremes that our enemies were willing to go. Another such attack will require a much more sophisticated plan and that appears to be beyond the ken of the type that enlist in al Qaeda.

So what can UBL expect to achieve with video and audio propaganda messages? Joseph Goebbles would not have missed opportunities to exploit the "setbacks" of U.S. forces in Iraq. UBL seems to be missing many opportunities, as the liberals in the U.S. have not.

UBL is dead or incompetent to rally his followers, which means he is effectively tot

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Herc the Merc Bin Laden is dead 1/11/2007 12:43:45 PM

Otherwise after the Mogaduishu effort he would have released another video tape. Somalia is very close to his heart.

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Plutarch 1/11/2007 2:31:33 PM

"I have a hunch we'll have some major breakthroughs this year. So much has been happening, I just do not believe they can contain their silence for much longer, they can't stay silent forever. Especially bin laden... I think its been over a year or two since his last video message."

Bin Laden's last video message was right before the 2004 Presidential election, before that it was late 2001...so it is not surprising that he hasn't spoken about "recent events". Zawaheri has spoken of late, last week in fact on the situation in Somalia.

Video messages

Early September 2003 - A video showing al-Zawahiri and bin Laden walking together, as well as an audiotape, is released to the al-Jazeera network.
September 9, 2004 - Another video is released announcing more assaults.
August 4, 2005 - He issues a televised statement blaming Tony Blair and his government's foreign policy for the July 2005 London bombings^[7].
September 1, 2005 - al-Jazeera broadcasts a video message from Mohammed Sidique Khan, one of bombers of the London metro. His message is followed by another message from al-Zawahiri, blaming again Blair for the bombings^[8].
19 September 2005 - He claims responsibility for the London bombings.^[9]
December 7, 2005 - The full 40 minute interview from September is posted on the Internet with previously unseen video footage. See below for links.
January 6, 2006 - al-Zawahiri says U.S. President Bush's plan to withdraw troops from Iraq means Washington had been defeated in Iraq. al-Zawahiri is quoted as saying, "Bush, you must confess that you have been defeated in Iraq and in Afghanistan and you will be in Palestine soon." al-Zawahiri also conveys his condolences to the people of Pakistan struck by the catastrophic 2005 Kashmir Earthquake.
January 30, 2006 - In a video broadcast by al-Jazeera, he mocks Bush and brands him the "Butcher of Washington." The video also proves that he was not killed in a recent Pakistan airstrike. al-Zawahiri promises that the next terrorist attack would be on U.S. soil. ^[10]
April 27, 2006 - al-Zawahiri says in a video that the terror network's branch in Iraq has succeeded in "breaking the back" of the U.S. military with hundreds of suicide bombings.^[11]
June 9, Quote Reply

HYPOCENTER 1/11/2007 2:59:53 PM

He's not dead, we know this because: We're monitoring all communications, radio, telephone, satellite, and internet. Even hand written messages (when we can intercept them). If Bin Laden was dead, there would be some sort of communication from someone mourning his death. Nothing like that ever been made or received. That's how we know. He's very much alive and is believed to be plotting attacks against oil targets in the middle east.

The latest info is that he is believed to be somewhere Pakistan.... that's what the news said anyway.

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Bob 1/11/2007 4:16:51 PM

Let Zawahiri keep making tapes. Hell, let him take up podcasting. I think that's actually been the strategy for quite a while. Intelligence-wise, bleed them dry with everything they send out, intercepting it all until finally all their major player friends on the receiving end are dead or captured. Then, I dunno... then who cares? It's not like these two gentlemen could actually harm a person on their own.

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HYPOCENTER 1/11/2007 5:48:03 PM

Then, I dunno... then who cares? It's not like these two gentlemen could actually harm a person on their own.

Vengeance is reason enough to kill them.

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Herald1234 Agreed. 1/11/2007 6:38:45 PM

The propaganda victory of marching those clowns down Pennsylvania Avenue in chains would be worth it.

Televise that to the arabs in the street and let them howl. The thoughtful ones, the rulers, might get the message to culturally reform from within and emulate the people who can carry such vengeance through to success.

Herald

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Ashley-the-man 1/11/2007 10:39:33 PM

"He's not dead, we know this because: We're monitoring all communications, radio, telephone, satellite, and internet. Even hand written messages (when we can intercept them)."

If UBL were alive I think he would be in a running smack off with Bush like The Donald currently is with Rosie O'Fat.

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sentinel28a 1/11/2007 11:53:11 PM

AQ could benefit from keeping the fiction that their great leader is still among the living. Martyr or not, they would lose a lot of credibility if it was announced to the world that he was filling a pit in Waziristan.

That said, I won't believe he's dead until I see his head on a pike. Osama's like a comic book character--don't believe he's gone until you see the body, and even then it's not a guarantee.

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Plutarch Update: bin Laden Found 2/28/2007 11:35:19 AM

In the most definitive statement in years, America's top intelligence official said Tuesday Osama bin laden is in Pakistan actively re-establishing al Qaeda training camps.

The newly appointed Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell made the assertion about bin Laden and his No. 2 man, Ayman al Zawahri, in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Referring to Pakistan's rugged tribal area, McConnell said "to the best of our knowledge that the senior leadership, No. 1 and No. 2, are there, and they are attempting to re-establish and rebuild and to establish training camps."

Until now, U.S. intelligence officials had declined to publicly identify, with such certainty, the location of bin Laden although he has long been suspected of hiding in Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan.

McConnell's testimony came the day after the CIA deputy director, Stephen R. Kappes, flew to Pakistan to confront President Pervez Musharaff with "compelling" evidence that new al Qaeda training camps were being established on Pakistani territory.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/02/cia_bin_laden_i.html

Most likely he is working hand-in-hand with his longtime sponsors (rogue elements of the ISI) and I'll bet there's not an Iraqi in sight.

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