|
|
|
Subject:
threat matrix - JSDF's scenarios
gf0012-aust
11/8/2004 9:13:05 PM
|
| The Japan Times has been running articles on evolving threats to Japan (via North Korea and China) approx twice a week for the last few months - it seems to me that there is some shifting perceptions being generated here.
/article on
Defense strategists look to China's attack threat
As part of efforts to revamp the national defense strategy, Defense Agency officials have established three scenarios in which China attacks Japan.
The scenarios involve attacks stemming from disputes over ocean resources and claims over the Senkaku Islands as well as a clash across the Taiwan Strait, agency sources said Sunday.
While the scenarios are for discussions on Japan's future defense capabilities, they indicate the perceived threat China poses and will probably further upset Beijing amid the ongoing political standoff over the development of gas fields in the East China Sea and the dispute over the Senkaku Islands.
The scenarios are stipulated in the final report compiled in September by the agency's committee on defense capability. The agency has not made the report public because it will be used for further discussions for revising the National Defense Program Outline, they said.
The agency plans to finish compiling by the end of the month the revised defense outline, which is aimed at responding to new threats, including terrorism.
According to the sources, the report predicts China will "strengthen its military capability in order to demonstrate its capability to Taiwan and the United States, and will be the greatest military power in the Asia-Pacific region in the future."
In the case of a clash between China and Taiwan, China may attack parts of Japan to prevent U.S. forces in Japan from going to Taipei's assistance, according to one scenario.
In the second scenario, the report says China may take military action to seize the Senkakus if Chinese public criticism of the Chinese Communist Party over the territorial dispute grows strong enough to threaten its leadership.
The islands, known as the Diaoyu in China and Tiaoyutais in Taiwan, are controlled by Japan but are claimed by Beijing and Taipei.
As for the third scenario, the report says China may act illegally to secure its interests in the East China Sea if it deems Japan did not take what Beijing believes to be appropriate measures regarding the dispute over development of gas fields near the boundary of the two sides.
Japan and China are at loggerheads over their natural gas exploration activities near the median line in the East China Sea. They hold different definitions of where the exclusive economic zones are separated.
The report notes that while China "is cautious about using military force to solve international issues, as it understands that doing so will hinder its own development," it is "likely that the Chinese Communist Party will go its own way to secure its sovereignty and territory as well as expand its interests in the sea."
The China attack discussions are also believed to be behind Japan's plans to shift its concentration of military forces from the north to the south near Okinawa and the Nansei Islands, closer to China and Taiwan, now that the Cold War Soviet threat has abated, the sources said.
The agency's caution about China was apparently due to increased concerns of ruling coalition politicians about how to deal with China's growing military, political and economical power.
The report stresses the need for diplomatic efforts to avoid conflicts with China. It says that while the Japan-U.S. alliance should be strengthened to address the Chinese threat, "economic and technological cooperation from neighboring countries is essential for a stable China."
|
| |
|
|
|
