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Subject: China Hides Behind White Paint
SYSOP    12/11/2012 5:47:48 AM
 
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trenchsol       12/11/2012 11:43:35 AM
If the other countries in the region don't form anti Chinese bloc, China will, most likely take over the disputed area. US, almost certainly, would not try to stop them, not to even mention EU or Japan.
 
I guess that was one of the main reasons for Chinese military buildup. Everyone assumed it was Taiwan, but I doubt it. Greatest value of Taiwan are competent people who live there, and if they don't cooperate, it is just a small piece of land with no natural resources.
 
DG
 
 
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Reactive       12/11/2012 12:43:05 PM
It's also a prestige issue in the eyes of the PRC - that the US can effectively shield a "dissident" state on its doorstep is (to put it frankly) an affront to mainland China's growing self-perception of itself as a superpower. 
 
I agree that it's quite possible that the smaller states will form some form of undeclared alliance but that is to overlook the enduring hostilities in the region which run very deep indeed. 
 
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       12/11/2012 12:58:51 PM
The US, Indian, Russian and Japanese navies most likely won't look for a confrontation with China.  Instead, they will exercise right of passage in what everyone else considers international waters.  And the PLAN most likely will not look for a confrontation with them.
 
Private vessels may seek a confrontation with great power naval vessels, allowing the PLAN to come to their "rescue", which would lead to shooting.
 
The greatest chance for conflict comes from private shipping or small nation navies refusing to pay transit fees and paying great power navies for escort service.
 
I'd really love to see how things shape up between the Russians and the PLAN.  
 
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TonoFonseca    Imperial Japan   12/11/2012 2:25:07 PM
I agree with you on the U.S. and EU, but I disagree with you about Japan.  Japan has had a long history of kicking Chinese heads.  They'll draw their katanas, even if they don't really intend on using them.  A lot of nationalist sentiments are growing in Japan's political parties and the threat from China and the lack of strong leadership in the U.S. will likely mean that Japan will drastically increase the size of its military.
 
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WarNerd       12/11/2012 5:51:55 PM

The US, Indian, Russian and Japanese navies most likely won't look for a confrontation with China.  Instead, they will exercise right of passage in what everyone else considers international waters.  And the PLAN most likely will not look for a confrontation with them.
The area claimed includes the major east-west trade route.  Even the slightest threat to shipping traffic, real, implied, or imagines, will bring an instant response from the US, EU, Persian Gulf States, southern Asia (India, Pakistan, etc.), and southeast Asia. Basically everyone except Russia, Africa, and maybe some parts of South America.
 
This is NOT something inconsequential.
 
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maria hong    Greedy and Lawless China   12/11/2012 6:15:04 PM
Initially it was a just a disregarded claim by China until they build enough power to back it up. Legal or not, China is going to make it hellish for those South East Asian fishermen who have been living off this bountiful water for centuries. It's not justice for the neighbors and it should not be allowed by the civilized world who declares interest in freedom of navigation ( 40% of global commercial traffics ) and favors peaceful resolution ( China claims 90% of South China Sea, 1,200 miles from their nearest coastline ). Is it not enough evidences of Chinese lawlessness? The choice is clear for a forceful response, the only language China knows.
 
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RtWingCon    tweak'em   12/11/2012 6:38:01 PM
Don't call it the South China Sea anymore. Refer to it as the South East Asia Sea instead. China will go bonkers over something as silly as that. Iran was tweaked when we referred to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf instead. It seemed to lessen their perceived influence(or claims in China's case) in the region judging from their reaction to the slight. It would be interesting to see China's reaction to the name change.
 
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Reactive       12/11/2012 8:41:38 PM
It'll be interesting to see what comes of this - despite the bellicose rhetoric I'm dubious that the PRC currently to match its threats - what it seems to be doing is essentially bullying other states into choosing between confrontation (with the implicit possibility of escalation) and appeasement. In other words, it feels ready to assert (some level of) dominance, which will only grow in line with its capability. 
 
History offers plenty of examples of this type of behaviour before, placing weaker states in unbearable positions in order to extract either concessions or the required pretext for military aggression - and given that China's behaviour on this issue is matched across virtually every sphere of influence by the same characteristic belligerence it is possibly a GOOD time for this to happen - to drop the thin and insubstantial pretence of the amicable expansion of the PRC as an entity.
 
I saw an interview with a BBC correspondent in the PRC who had heard that Obama's administration in particular is seen as somewhat of a soft-touch by the PRC, that is understandable (mirrored in Europe and until recently, Japan), they are still at the stage where they think the PRC's rise is going to be "softened" by sensitive cooing and greater diplomatic engagement - even as the cameras record "warm handshakes" and "constructive dialogue" during state visits China is waging an intensive cyberwarfare campaign (penetration & espionage) and doing its level-best to close the technology gap. 
 
There has been at least 2 decades of denial about Chinese intentions, anything that removes that veneer and prompts a reconsideration in line with the ever-more alarming DOD assessments is to be welcomed. 
 
 
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Reactive       12/11/2012 8:52:39 PM



The area claimed includes the major east-west trade route.  Even the slightest threat to shipping traffic, real, implied, or imagines, will bring an instant response from the US, EU, Persian Gulf States, southern Asia (India, Pakistan, etc.), and southeast Asia. Basically everyone except Russia, Africa, and maybe some parts of South America.

 

This is NOT something inconsequential.

I would suggest though that the post you reference is correct -  the PRC will be highly selective in terms of the action it takes especially in regards to merchant shipping - any notable action against those whose territory it contests will (hopefully) at least focus hearts and minds in the right places but I very much doubt you'll see the sort of universal condemnation - it will be called "a territorial dispute" with the usual meaningless UN fluff (we call on both sides to exercise restraint) recently seen over the Senkaku Islands. 
 
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maria hong    Not China Sea   12/11/2012 10:32:06 PM
There's a petition with thousands of names to change the name to South East Asia Sea, not sure if that would drive China crazy or not, but hopefully stop them from using it as a reason for owning the sea, just because the word China in it.
 
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