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Subject: Zumwalts Gets Seawolfed
SYSOP    9/21/2011 5:32:14 AM
 
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Reactive       11/18/2011 4:46:26 PM


 

As I said, CVAW strength is more a function, today, of Budget and poor Aviation Decisions made at the end of the Cold War, decisions about programs, not Carriers, Thomas. 

 

Still 64 a/c are better than 40, and these 64 a/c can probably do more than the 70-90 of a Cold War CVAW, in terms of striking power, due to the use of PGM.  But the wings do lack the F-14 Fleet Defense capability.
Retaining a reduced air wing during peace time makes a lot of sense - that during times of duress there is a platform big enough, with sufficient stores and manpower that is capable of maintaining high sortie rates for a considerable time.  
 
I agree that it's a shame the F-14 is gone, it was my personal favourite of the F-teens, a beautiful thoroughbred design - I can appreciate the decisions that led to its eventual retirement but I also wonder what that platform might have ended up looking like if it had been given the same sort of attention as the hornet.. 
 
I would just add that PGM's don't fundamentally alter anything, strike sorties may be more efficient but far less so in a heavily contested environment where air-dominance isn't established - the air wing makes up a more important part of the CBG layered defenses than any of the escorts, the capacity offered by the 100kt designs is crucial to survivability.  
 
 
 
 
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Thomas       11/19/2011 10:41:26 AM

U S Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World s" lists the Air wing for a Nimitz/Theodore Roosevelt class CVN as 48 F/A-18s,  4 EA-6Bs now being replaced by F/A-18Gs, 4 E2C/Ds, 6 SH/HH-60s and 2 C2s  a total of 64 aircraft in a standard CAW. I would hope there are enough aircraft available to surge larger CAWs if necessary.
 
 

Well - for the time being it is not so much the number of aircraft, that I'm worried about - you could bring some out of mothballing - the concern in that direction is the number of trained pilots.
 
The longer term worry is number of decks.
A conflict with the chinese would bring carriers to that area, which would denude other parts of the ocean of carriers.
China is indeed an argument; but lets be careful not overstating that case.
The risk is a conflict with China simultaneously with other smaller conflicts - which are very likely, partly as a consequence of China trying to secure their imports, partly as every ambitious rebel would have a field day with both China and USA occupied with each other.
 
I'm not to concerned about lauch capacity, as 2010 fighter bomber has a productivity - mesured in tons of TNT delivered on target (and not scattered around the general country side) - of say - 5-6 times a fighter of 1990.
 
Another thing is what you saw in Libya:
The french and and the british did not deliver very many bombs, but they made the deep strikes - apparently trading bombload for range.
A concentration of all the planes on big carriers will put constraints on range.
 
But You do point to another problem with current USNavy policy.
No doubt about it: The Hornet can do the job - but in many cases it is using the trial lawyers to pick up the lunch sandwiches for the girl with the mail trolley. Granted the charlady could run into a disgruntled policeofficer, but how likely is it.
What kind of competent air defence has the US run into lately? In Libya outclapped F-16 toted the brunt.
 
Not only the carrier task forces are victim of "simply the best for every purpose" - the planes are also.
Why use a flyswatter, when you have a wrecking ball available?
I see a definete need for a smaller no-frills fighter - partly because that is all there is going to be money for.
Use the potentially very good engine in the F-35 to reduce size and carry fuel and weapons internally. Bring down landing speed.
Skimp on stealth - the enemy might get an incling of what is going on anyhow, when the bombs start coming down the chimney.
What ship won the battle of the Atlantic? The dreadnoughts? No, the cheap corvette.
 
Again assuming the Chinese is the only show actually likely to open:
No doubt they will try matching the present day carrier task force - just as the Soviets did; but we cannot count on the Chinese repeating that monumental studpidity. They might actually go for something cheap - like the Uboat in WW2.
Look at the modern commercial vessels - nobody could design a more obious target - even if they tried.
How is the US going to protect commercial shipping with all the money spend on oversized, overmanned and empty deckspaces?
 
 
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JFKY    Thomas   11/19/2011 9:25:04 PM
Still not a lot of evidence, for all the talk...want to talk about seaworthiness, defense, fuel capacity, ordnance capacity, and the ability of a low tonnage CV to operate F/A-18 a/c or smaller. The relative manning levels, and escorts?
 
Until then you might as well just shut up.
 
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LB       11/20/2011 3:20:01 AM
Another thing being missed in this discussion is while strike missions per aircraft are more effective not everything a carrier does is power projection.  At some point the USN might have to actually fight someone with effective forces and require large numbers of offensive or even defensive anti air sorties.  The need for asw might increase in future to the point where dedicated carrier asw patrol aircraft are required again.  A carrier offers many potential capabilities even if they are not at the moment being utilized.
 
The US has to think very long term.  We build one or two SSN's a year and given 50 years of operation a carrier roughly every 5 years.  If a threat emerges requiring more aircraft on our carriers we can respond to that far more quickly by putting more aircraft on board than building more carrier task forces which require additional carriers, surface escorts, SSN's, and underway replenishment ships.  In fact if someone made a very careful study on how to save money by lowering force structure while retaining the capacity to quickly expand it the conclusion reached would be to lower the size of the air wing while retaining the heart of the task forces.  Which is exactly what he USN did starting in the 1990's.
 
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RedParadize    LB   11/20/2011 4:55:09 AM

Hi LB
 
 
Your first paragraph is kind of what I had in mind when i wrote my post (Page 9, post 4). Exept that yours is definitively more clear. I am curious to see how its gonna be answered cause I didn't feel my post had be understood.
 
About what you said in the second paragraph, I think I understand and agree. I Would only had that carrier might get build at a slower pace in the future, given the economic restriction and the lack of treat. Its not a big deal as long as the knowledge and expertise is preserved.
 
Having less carrier only mean that USN might not be eable to deal with multiple high level treat all around the globe at the same time. And since the end of USSR that kind of treat I don't see that happening. Worst case scenario, America might have to rely on allies to defend Atlantic.
 
SP didn't had a "hot" topic like this in quite a long time. Keep it up.
 
 
 
Red                  
 
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Thomas       11/20/2011 9:07:35 AM


 

About what you said in the second paragraph, I think I understand and agree. I Would only had that carrier might get build at a slower pace in the future, given the economic restriction and the lack of treat. Its not a big deal as long as the knowledge and expertise is preserved.

 

Having less carrier only mean that USN might not be eable to deal with multiple high level treat all around the globe at the same time. And since the end of USSR that kind of treat I don't see that happening. Worst case scenario, America might have to rely on allies to defend Atlantic.

 

SP didn't had a "hot" topic like this in quite a long time. Keep it up.

 

 

 

Red                  

LB's first point.
Of course a carrier has more missions than one. As long as you have the Nimitz-class - you use them as well, as you can according to the mission at hand.
But you don't build carriers with the explicit purpose of rescuing embassy staff in case of a revolution. What scenario do you design carriers for?
My point is that the USNavy with the Ford-class designs for a worst case Soviet attack. Splendid - those carriers have not only been designed, but they are actually in service - known as the Nimitz.-class.
But that scenario is hardly likely in the next 20 years - dispite Chinese ambitions. Is the Nimitz-class (or the Ford-class for that matter) the best vessel to fight the Chinese? Definately not!
If for no other reason then because a further concentration on the big carrier is not affordable.
If nothing else a circling "Deathstar" around China is not likely to be attacked directly - provided the Chinese aren't inexcusably stupid, which might very well be; but it is not a sound planning assumption.
If the Chinese have one ion of intelligence, they will of course not attack the USNavy where it is strongest - they are not necessarily senile WW1 generals that throw massive infantry assaults against heavily fortified positions.
 
To LB's second point.
Of course you draw down the force level on the carriers in the present circumstances - which will leave the capacity to almost double the force with the same speed as it takes to train pilots and bring fighters out of mothballing.
But it seems likely, that need is already catered for in the next 20-30 years.
The Ford-class is basically just a better Nimitz-class with some rationalisation in the number of "bird-handlers".
The problem is the NEW yet unbuild carriers! What conflict should they be designed for?
 
Maybe new ships should be build for the likely conflicts within the next 20 years? Just a suggestion. If the past is the best reference - then start building dreadnoughts to fight at Jutland.
 
Maybe build a carrier for smaller conflicts - in fact a carrier TASK force for smaller conflicts.
The Royal Navy did all right in the Falklands war - to low on air-defence; but by and large. It is not necessarily the size that is decisive.
 
 
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Thomas    Lets take the present task force   11/20/2011 10:10:14 AM
From the USNavy home page:
Typically a carrier strike group might have:
  • a carrier – The carrier provides a wide range of options to the U.S. government from simply showing the flag to attacks on airborne, afloat and ashore targets. Because carriers operate in international waters, its aircraft do not need to secure landing rights on foreign soil. These ships also engage in sustained operations in support of other forces.
  • a guided missile cruiser – multi-mission surface combatant. Equipped with Tomahawks for long-range strike capability.
  • two guided missile destroyers – multi-mission surface combatants, used primarily for anti-air warfare (AAW)
  • an attack submarine – in a direct support role seeking out and destroying hostile surface ships and submarines
  • a combined ammunition, oiler, and supply ship – provides logistic support enabling the Navy's forward presence; on station, ready to respond
Lets take the other tack - I will start with the weak spot:
The Ticonderoga-class. Who needs it? It can take out most minor navies singlehandedly several times over. Reminds me of the Russian "carriers".
To me it is the perfect ship for sinking a chinese invasion force en route to Taiwan - possibly with some air protection - from land or sea. Protecting the carrier? Excuse me - an invasion fleet is liable to invade, not attack carriers. The ship that Japan needed at the invasion of the Phillipenes.
 
Could the job of protecting the carrier not be distributed among the other ships in the task force.
The problem is here that the Arleigh Burke is a very good ship from the reports I have heard. Now a successor to Arligh Burke could perhaps be a tad bigger - and do the job of the Arligh Burke AND Ticonderoga.
Instead they build the Zumwaldt sailing so close to shore, that it would be nowhere near the carrier - and not able to protect the carrier.
 
Attack submarine? The Seawolf would be perfect - but it won't - as it was cancelled for beeing to expensive - and in all likelyhood an overkill except guarding the "gap" between Greenland and Spitsbergen.
 
In the near term - to provide more power projection capability - AND better dominance of the sea.
Why not let a Ticonderoga-class  be at the core: It can take out most rougue nations navies at the drop of the presidents hat.
As I count it there are 22 Ticonderogas - that could better employed. If a minimal air cover is needed around South Africa or Ghana - then the Harriers could deal (perhaps with small modification)  with the air force of Cameroun. Off-load the Marines from a Wasp class.
Is it a perfect solution - definately NOT; but is at hand.
My point being: Build a small carrier with perhaps 40 aircraft to deal with Hugo Chavez and chaps of his ilk.
There is likely to be more Chavez and Gadaffi types around in the future simultaneously - and using one carrier task force pr. pain in the butt - the USA will run out of carriers if something like the arabian spring spreads and get ugly.
Can the present carrier force deal with it? No. Even carriers have a hard time being two places at the same time.
You don't need a sledgehammer to krack a nut - and ordinary claw hammer will do the job.
 
Now I'm not advocating invading Venezuela - that is a political decision - but when is f.i. China likely to become nasty? Perhaps when the carriers are busy spanking obstinate bottoms in remote places?
 
 
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Reactive       11/20/2011 3:19:27 PM
Another joke of an analysis.
 
The gems:
 
"Protecting the carrier? Excuse me - an invasion fleet is liable to invade, not attack carriers"
 
And you worked in planning? So you wouldn't expect the PLAAF to use the tactics that the Pentagon has highlighted in numerous annual reports on Chinese military developments, namely CBG saturation? Do you not think that part of an "invasion" is removing the hostile air threat, or causing it to remain out of useful range.
 
"The Royal Navy did all right in the Falklands war - to low on air-defence; but by and large. It is not necessarily the size that is decisive."
 
The Royal Navy did not do all right, it was stretched to its limits, in hindsight it is incredible fortune that argentine fuses had such a high dud-rate (even the carrier got lucky)  and the recent introduction of sidewinder that above anything else prevented the loss of the task-force. 
 
"There is likely to be more Chavez and Gadaffi types around in the future simultaneously - and using one carrier task force pr. pain in the butt - the USA will run out of carriers if something like the arabian spring spreads and get ugly."
 
As we have established, it is not significantly cheaper building a 60kT carrier - your  
 
"Could the job of protecting the carrier not be distributed among the other ships in the task force. "
 
It might be because the USN has a reasonable idea of, for example, what defensive anti-missile coverage is required to deal with "n" ASHM's and enemy strike aircraft that they operate with the current layered defenses. It's nice to see you try to address the surpport argument, because as has been mentioned previously, it undermines everything you are saying wrt cost effectiveness of smaller carriers. But wait, there's worse, the amount of surface support required is also dependent on the size of the air wing (NOT strike capability) !! Another good reason to build with greater capacity. 
 
How about you mention the scaling arguments relating to construction, the underway replenishment requirements, stores, air-wing capacity and t he ability of 40/60/100kT carriers to sustain damage without it being lost. 
 
You keep changing your mind to try and seem like you're making sense, first of all you opined that 2 CBG's is more than enough to deal with the PRC, then you told us you'd like to see about 16 QE-size carriers, and when it was demonstrated by several posters that this is actually likely to cost far more and be FAR less effective than the current deployed assets you now seem to want to build a new class of 40 000 Tonne carriers to deal with 3rd rate powers, you, based on nothing want to fundamentally alter CBG defensive arrangements presumably to make this possible, at what point Thomas, do you admit that most of this conversation from you is coming out of the wrong hole?
 
I know that you've been very preoccupied plucking your ample nose hairs but honestly, are you just trolling people here?  I think it is absolutely right that you are challenged to present evidence in support of your arguments, I suspect your reply will be characteristically childish but as JFKY has correctly stated, your arguments are looking weak/deseperate and rely on nothing more than your own opinion for want of any evidence.
 
 
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Reactive       11/20/2011 3:53:26 PM
 
That link to a thread here less than a year ago covers a similar discussion on carrier sizes.
 
I apologise for my tone on the last thread but surely anyone must understand that the arguments relating to scaling, support, survivability, replenishment, stores, surge capacity are actually more important than a very subjective view of future mission requirements. 
 
Even if Thomas was right in his view that the future threat is relatively benign the most efficient way to deal with it is STILL with larger carriers, your views on defensive arrangements are so incredibly glib for someone who would ultimately be talking about defense of capital assets and thousands of lives. 
 
 
 
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LB    Reality   11/20/2011 6:10:31 PM
The reality of the situation is Seawolf was superseded by the Virginia class and the follow on DDG is in fact DDG-51 flight III.  All the CG's, DDG's, and SSN's, carry various numbers of Tomahawk's and focusing on one ship type for cruise missile strike is misleading.
 
The continued call for USN carriers to be far smaller ignoring every argument presented as to why this is not a good idea has simply become silly.  It's a false premise that smaller carriers save money and continuing to state a 40 aircraft air wing can fill every required mission is both tiresome and not supported by recent history.  The USN had 5 different carriers conducting operations over Afghanistan within a period of months of the conflict.  Smaller will not always get the job done.  It's simply a false theoretical construct that the USN can afford different classes of carriers and send a notionally smaller one to some minor conflict.  The USN has ten carrier task forces that go through an intricate dance of deployment, operations, maintenance, and training.  There is no luxury of operating different types.
 
 
 
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