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Subject: How would you defend Taiwan from PRC attack
    10/5/2007 6:34:14 PM
Hey Folks, How an d with what equipment would yu use to defend Taiwan from a PRC attack with the oblective to limit the war to the two of them???? Sincerely, Keith
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 3:53:56 AM
Photon,
 
It is FAR easier and cheaper to produce 5x or 10x 'Harpoons' than 1x LST or DDG or whatever.
 
Also far cheaper to produce dozens of AIM120s than a fleet of 'C-47s' full of paratroopers or bombers or fighters.
 
Even the PRC will go broke with that equation.
 
 
OC
 
 
 
 
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 4:08:34 AM
Photon,
 
It is FAR easier and cheaper to produce 5x or 10x 'Harpoons' than 1x LST or DDG or whatever.
 
Also far cheaper to produce dozens of AIM120s than a fleet of 'C-47s' full of paratroopers or bombers or fighters.
 
Even the PRC will go broke with that equation.
 
 
OC
 
 
 
 
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 4:42:20 AM
Photon,
 
Taiwan cannot hope to win an arms race with the PRC, no matter what she does. If she goes nuclear she will never catch up with China's capacity to produce warheads. And the world is not likely to support such a venture.
 
But Taiwan CAN produce the means of sinking ships or downing planes MUCH faster than China can build them.
 
BUT, China can do something to achieve her goals without bloodshed, and that is CHARM Taiwan into re-joining the mainland. As the wise man said, "you catch more flies with honey, than you do with vinegar". In other words convince Taiwan, over some years, maybe even 10 or more, that it would be to their advantage to 'merge'.
 
Perhaps something along the lines of the Hong Kong experience, but  without the PRC puppet running the show.
 
 
OC
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

 
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Photon       10/12/2010 11:09:30 AM
It is FAR easier and cheaper to produce 5x or 10x 'Harpoons' than 1x LST or DDG or whatever.
 
Also far cheaper to produce dozens of AIM120s than a fleet of 'C-47s' full of paratroopers or bombers or fighters.
 
Even the PRC will go broke with that equation.

Nay.  I am harly referring to this sort of arms race.  First of all, makes no sense for China to have a huge fleet of cargo planes and an entire airborne army.  (At any rate, this would be an inappropriate way of using airborne troops!)  If I were Beijing, I would be putting my pennies into ballistic missiles -- both in quantity and higher capability.  Once I can saturate Taiwan with ballistic missiles, then it does not matter a whole lot if Taiwan has anti-ballistic missiles.  Of course, anti-ballistic missile sites can also be targeted as well.
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 2:07:18 PM
Photon,
 
The trouble with 'ballistic missiles' is that you have to choose what type they are, nuclear or conventional.  If the PRC starts lobbing nukes all over Taiwan the prize of 'victory' will not be worth having.
 
Not to mention the outrage around the world, and the absolute destruction of her reputation and standing in the world community.
 
If they are conventional warheads, then I will bet that the well buried military assets of the Taiwan armed forces will survive.  Maybe the airfields will not, but the missiles WILL!  Taiwan would be FOOLS not to have buried all the important stuff years ago and it is pointless to lob a ton of TNT on a hospital or school.
 
I think the PRC knows all that.
 
 
 
OC
 
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YelliChink       10/12/2010 3:10:13 PM

Without reading the previous posts........


 

 

My 'Taiwan Defence' shopping list would be comprised of 3 main things.

 

1.   Top shelf surveilance, that is the  BEST Satellite,  radars,  and other sensors I can get based on the Pescadores etc.  That should give me as much warning as possible of the build up at the 'invasion ports'.  The PRC cannot gather all the stuff they need without being noticed.


 

 

2.   As many (truck mounted) SAMs as I can get my hand on, the BEST I can buy or manufacture ASAP. That means AIM120 etc.  I suggest AT LEAST 2000 of them! Preferably 3000!


 

 

3.  As above for ASMs.  Latest 'Block'  'Harpoons' etc, also as many as possible, truck mounted. AT LEAST 1000 of them.

 

 

The USA has satellites over-flying the PRC coast about 8 times a day,  with real time pics,  together with the BEST radars, Taiwan should know every time a PRC general picks his nose. 


 

FORGET the fancy F-16s or even F-35s, Forget the fancy DDGs, forget the subs, they are only delivery platforms. Taiwan does NOT need them. They are only a truck to transport a missile from A to B.  The Taiwan Strait is about 120 kms wide, about the same as the trip to Normandy! Taiwan has a window of about 100 kms (6 to 10 hours sailing) in order to stop the invasion fleet in its tracks.


 

Taiwan has a LOUSY coast line for an invasion, most of it is mud flats or built up cities. The East coast is near vertical mountains almost to the beach.

 

Taiwan has a good road system all around the coast for the truck mounted missiles. They SHOULD have lots of man made caves to hide them in.


 

The certain parachute drop SHOULD be stopped before they get with 50 kms of the Taiwan coast.


 

JMNHO

 

 

Old Codger


 

 

 

 

 

 




1. Done. We have mutiple layers of stationary and mobile radar units plus coastal patrol units. There are few low-orbits, dual-use atellites. There are stationary and untold ELINT, SIGINT units. There are intelligence cooperations, and there are always HUMINT.
 
2. Done. The amount of TK2/TK1 (and up-coming TK3) is well over 1000 already. There are few PAC2+ batteries and will be increased to 9 PAC3 batteries. There are also latest HAWK system in serivce. SLAMRAAM system is kind of not very useful to ROC. There was a TC2 land-based, mobile launch system on display in 2007. ROCAF have some MIM-7 systems for base defense.
 
3. Done. We don't have shore-based Harpoon, but we do have undisclosed number of shore-based HF2, plus the KH6 missile boat fleet that are now under construction. Now we have quite a few HF3. 1000 is way over the numbers required.
 
And, yes, we do need F-35B, diesel-electric subs and DDG. Defense must be built upon multiple layers and platforms. You can't leave your defense solely relying on single system, platform or strategy.
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 10:04:25 PM
Yellichink,
 
 
"And, yes, we do need F-35B, diesel-electric subs and DDG. Defense must be built upon multiple layers and platforms. You can't leave your defense solely relying on single system, platform or strategy."
 
 
The number of your missiles largely depends on the number of ships and planes the PRC can throw at you.  If they can launch an invasion fleet of, say, 500 ships then you need maybe 4 missiles per ship.
 
Likewise,  if they send airborne troops of about a division size, that is perhaps 15,000 men in about 300 aircraft.  Add to that the bombers and fighters, that could well take that to 1300 planes, maybe even more.  At least 2 missiles per aircraft is 2600 missiles,  make it 3000.
 
Add 20% as an insurance policy.
 
I say again, your ships and planes are only a delivery system for the goodies at the sharp end.  An F-35 for example may well carry a half dozen AIM-120s which you will have on the truck on your coastal highway. You will be duplicating systems.  Your 'field of fire' is only 120 kms deep and maybe 200 kms wide. Your 'Harpoon' and 'AIM-120 standard weapons can cover that from your own shore.  If you venture near the invasion fleet you will expose your ships and planes to GRAVE danger. 
 
It is the missiles that do the job of destroying the invasion fleet, NOT the delivery system.
 
And its a LOT cheaper, you can churn out missiles far faster than the PRC can churn out ships.
 
 
 
OC
 

 
 
 
 
 
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YelliChink       10/12/2010 10:34:24 PM


It is the missiles that do the job of destroying the invasion fleet, NOT the delivery system.

And its a LOT cheaper, you can churn out missiles far faster than the PRC can churn out ships.

OC


The center of military thinking is deception, not geometry.
 
Under that thinking, commies will simply make a lot of decoys to lure our missile to be fired in vain.
 
And what if they choose not to invade, but launching a blockade operation of unlimited sub warfare?
 
What if their J-11s lurk just outside of air defense system and shoot whatever flies out of the island?
 
What if they took the islands of Pescadores and we need to counter attack?
 
Also, we need to make commies pay if they choose to start the conflict by taking Kinmen and Matsu. We need to make them pay dearly so that they have to abandon subsequent operations due to heavy losses.
 
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Old Codger       10/12/2010 10:49:32 PM
Yellichink,
 
 All of your scenario (and mine) is an act of war, no less than an actual invasion.
 
That will leave the PRC as a pariah in the UN with almost certain expulsion, and with probable UN trade sanctions and embargos that will close her factories in a month.  That will send the workers home without a job and in a VERY bad mood!
 
All of this discussion is hypothetical, and my comments are restricted to actual defence of an invasion, and remember a blockade runner with a US flag on top would be a BIG challenge to the PRC, especially if that freighter has 3x Carrier Battle Groups as escort.
 
And if the 747 flying Taipei to LA is one of American Airlines or United Airlines?
 
 
 
OC
 
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YelliChink       10/13/2010 12:04:15 AM

Yellichink,
 
 All of your scenario (and mine) is an act of war, no less than an actual invasion.

That will leave the PRC as a pariah in the UN with almost certain expulsion, and with probable UN trade sanctions and embargos that will close her factories in a month.  That will send the workers home without a job and in a VERY bad mood!
 
All of this discussion is hypothetical, and my comments are restricted to actual defence of an invasion, and remember a blockade runner with a US flag on top would be a BIG challenge to the PRC, especially if that freighter has 3x Carrier Battle Groups as escort.
 
And if the 747 flying Taipei to LA is one of American Airlines or United Airlines?

OC


I hope that the ROC has that kind of international support. However, the reality is commies have a lot of influence in the UN and the turd world. The UN itself is United Abominations anyway.Outrage from the Western world, certainly, but don't expect the rest of the world will follow. Most will simply tow the commie line that the conflict is "internal affair."
 
If the US and American public would not tolerate commie expansionism, good, commies won't win under that scenario. The deterrent works. 
 
However, commies are know to be lying, dirty, shrewd.... you get the picture. You can call every name under the sun on them except for stupidity, which they certain aren't. Fighting a losing war is not what they would be thinking when doing it.
 
So, the possible scenario is that a POTUS made a deal with commies to sell us out.
 
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