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Subject: Israeli deterrence
Ezekiel    8/21/2007 10:18:29 AM
Israel is in the next few months discussing what it the future of their military procurements. Finally Israel is cutting back on its air and going to strengthen its ground forces and strategic reach. The answer to the latter is going to be. 1. the new hercules air transport. 2. The new zumwalt class brown water boat being developed by lockheed 3. Anti rocket defense on its Merkavah Tanks 4. Enlarging by two divisions the infantry 5. Enlarging by two divisions the armor. 6. transforming another 100 of its older f-16's into its enhanced 'tsufa' 7. Enlarging emergency stockpiles. 8. Production of an Israeli helicopter. It is now either between producing a UAV helicopter with India or the already desighned joint russian-israeli "hokum" There has been suggestions by the brass to increase deterrence and there is now discussion of Israel purchasing a mirror of the 2 Canberra class LHD's Australia procured this year from spain. These LHD's will have a huge impact by giving Israel a leap in force projection and some much needed deterrance.
 
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YelliChink       8/21/2007 1:20:06 PM
How about some Aegis equiped ships first?
 
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Shirrush       8/21/2007 5:19:37 PM
Get real Hatzkel. Or start reading the Hebe news.
Israel is in the next few months discussing what it the future of their military procurements. Finally Israel is cutting back on its air and going to strengthen its ground forces and strategic reach. The answer to the latter is going to be.

1. the new hercules air transport.
Like there is a choice! The current Herky fleet is 40 years old in average, and is mostly held together by a new coat of paint every now and then. The last war tended to vindicate the need for air assault capabilities, so I guess that'll be 5-6 C-130J's @ 90 M a shot, over the next 5 years. I hope they come complete with firefighting modules.
2. The new zumwalt class brown water boat being developed by lockheed
 Yeah, sure! Zummies at US$ 2.5 G a piece! If unsere Yiddishe Navy get anything besides a shrug and the sound of a fart, it will be a pair of LCS ships, and not necessarily the Lockmart ones. They'll get 2 new German subs with AIP that'll cost us a billion Euros in 2010, so now they can just get out of the way and shut up.
3. Anti rocket defense on its Merkavah Tanks
There are rumors that 100 Trophy sets have actually been ordered for FY 2008. Who gets them and who gets penetrated and killed? My guess: 401 gets them on the Mk IV (Who needs tactics when you have the best active AND passive protection that taxpayers' money can buy?), and the reservists are toast as usual.
4. Enlarging by two divisions the infantry
Nope. The infantry gets Namer HAPC's and Strykers. The reservists will see their WWII steel helmets and colonial British webbing replaced with hand-me-down US strawhats, new vests, and Camelback, tee-emm. And, also, sawed-off M-16A1's, not even re-barreled, to replace the old, long ones!
5. Enlarging by two divisions the armor.
Yeah right! that's what Barak wants. Olmert is against it, and he still calls the shots. The plan is to equip two new reserve ugdot with barely 25 years-old, presently mothballed Mk II's. The reservists are going to love that: the Merk is everything the M60 isn't, and has never beheaded a driver.
6. transforming another 100 of its older f-16's into its enhanced 'tsufa'
Yeah. Like with plasma stealth, TVC,  AESA and a brand-new, Technion-designed mechtrometer. And Harry Potter gets Tzippi Livni's old broomstick at a discount. .
7. Enlarging emergency stockpiles.
See "infantry", above.
8. Production of an Israeli helicopter. It is now either between producing a UAV helicopter with India or the already desighned joint russian-israeli "hokum"
No way. UH-60's get a weaponry suite, and maybe some LUH's are procured, that could be a version of the HAL's Dhruv with a US engine and IAI avionics. There is no word about a possible replacement for the CH-53, which is even more tired than the Herky in Israeli service and, contrarily to attack helos, is justified by operational necessity. V-22? Yeah, sure.



There has been suggestions by the brass to increase deterrence and there is now discussion of Israel purchasing a mirror of the 2 Canberra class LHD's Australia procured this year from spain. These LHD's will have a huge impact by giving Israel a leap in force projection and some much needed deterrance.
Hee-hee! Good joke  Force projection is not an option when we have barely half of what we need for homeland defense. A new international airport, however, will be built on an artificial island offshore Tel-Aviv to replace the one at Lod that'll soon be lost to Palestinian rocket fire anyway. It could be sound engineering to first sink a few UN-mandated Euro LHD's to the bottom in order to anchor the works against the strong marine currents...




 
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Ezekiel       8/24/2007 6:18:50 AM
Shirrush....

I wasn't implying that Israel will get all the above, but barak and ashkenazi are now making re-evaluation of battle doctrine's due to the breakdown in the air doctrine that had been governing Israel battle conceptualization for a good 30 yrs.... They are going to make a real renovation of the ground forces and put money in new military platforms. Barak has made a number of remarks about putting in the trophy system and the new Israeli apc in full production. The threat perception of the israeli public is the highest its been since '73 and would fully back a massive defense budget...Olmert though is still stifling the increase...but he will not long endure within this debate...the man who single handally ruined Israeli detterence is going to stop Defense build-up, it won't hold...it is guaranteed that Barak will get his way. So in terms of training, more anti missile defense, hercules, israeli apc's, and additional ground divisions these are completely plausible and reliable statements that Israel is going to fund these developments. In the front page of The J post today they are announcing a massive increase of Arrow batteries in the north... these are from readily available sources.

Now the LHD's and the Helicopter are not as factual and are less concrete...they demand huge investment and long term planning. But I was writing about these, b/c there are rumors and buzz suggesting Israel is possibly going to undertake these military developments. The Canberra class LHD's, The navy has been complaining for 15 yrs about the need for the ability to make battalion level assaults away from its shores possible. The newly appointed Chief of Israel's navy made a speech 4  months ago about Israel navy's role in deterrence and force projection and advocated procurement of such vehicles to facilitate these military options. He also talking about purchasing another two Saar V's. When He took over his office last month, one of the first acts in office was a cost analysis of Australia's procurement  of the two LHD's from spain.

As for the helicopters, there was leaks of a joint Israeli-India unmanned helicopter to counter the chinese anti ship missiles that scored a nice shot on the Hanit last year. Still in discussion, but Barak, in my opinion is going for the 'Hokum"...he has made it clear in his hiatus from politics that he believes Israel should have military independance on the tactical level and this means producing its own helicopter force.

The problem with all that I say is that it is innuendo, rumor and genralization..I understand this, and more then likely, even if some of the above is to get done, there will be a new coalition agreement, or new elections and back to square one. The fact is though that the generals in Israel are in the midst of a complete and massive overhaul in strategy and battle doctrines and today with the increase in US aid and the Israeli economic boom Israel can make some serious inroads into what it chooses to supply to its armed forces.... But I understand the skepticism here on this thread shirrush.

 
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french stratege       8/24/2007 11:35:31 AM
The first threat to Israel is Iran so logical thing would be to improve long range air/missile strike capacities and defense to ballistic missiles.
I would add tankers, AWACs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles with conventional precise warheads, antimissile defense and more buried installations for israeli air force and secondary runways with fast recovery capability from a massive precise BM strike with submunitions and of course better C4ISR.More submarines including some equiped with AIP and  for special forces to be carried on Iran coast would add good capabilities.
Improving and rebuilding F15 or getting additional upgraded one could be necessary.2 squadron of air defense F15 seems few now and they are at their potential limit.
The second threat is good infantry and partisans (like to fight an upgraded Hezbollah), so I would add more capacities to infantry starting by individual and platoon equipement, C4ISR(including armed drones or an antiinfantry loitering missile) and IFV, and improve IED and RPG defense capacity (like deploying Trophy).
 
 
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Ya222       8/26/2007 7:44:01 AM
i love "innocent" people like you who say the right things only 20 years late..

The first threat to Israel is Iran so logical thing would be to improve long range air/missile strike capacities and defense to ballistic missiles.

I would add tankers, AWACs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles with conventional precise warheads, antimissile defense and more buried installations for israeli air force and secondary runways with fast recovery capability from a massive precise BM strike with submunitions and of course better C4ISR.More submarines including some equiped with AIP and  for special forces to be carried on Iran coast would add good capabilities.

Improving and rebuilding F15 or getting additional upgraded one could be necessary.2 squadron of air defense F15 seems few now and they are at their potential limit.

The second threat is good infantry and partisans (like to fight an upgraded Hezbollah), so I would add more capacities to infantry starting by individual and platoon equipement, C4ISR(including armed drones or an antiinfantry loitering missile) and IFV, and improve IED and RPG defense capacity (like deploying Trophy).

 



 
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Ezekiel       9/3/2007 9:29:37 AM
 
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Shirrush       9/4/2007 3:44:42 PM
I'm sure you meant "link"...

Lots of smoke and very little hard data here.
Keeping the Merk IV production line open is certainly good news for some 20,000 Israeli families (If there's any truth to it!), but apart from that, I don't see anything new, or any glint of a new thinking in the IDF's upper spheres.
There is indeed some money earmarked for measures aiming at making the reservists less despondent about their duties, but I do not see any incentives to keep the best and brightest from leaving the services for better-paid hi-tech jobs, or any hint that the IDF has finally got its jit together about promoting excellence and creativity instead of its traditional nurturing of conformity and mediocrity.

No word either about the Stryker, or about the implementation of the Tavor assault rifle, or why it is just not happening.
They've apparently reached a decision about procuring ONE squadron (24) of F-35's after 2014, but another article also inferred that the purchase of new transport aircraft has been canceled as a result.
Also, it is unclear whether the Navy is getting one, or two LCS variants, or whether the procurement of the new Barak 8 naval SAM has been approved or not.

This guy has a few more details on the  "Tefen 2012" programme, but it's still pretty sketchy.


 
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Shirrush    Sorry!   9/4/2007 3:47:38 PM
" Link ".
 
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