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Subject: Israeli aircraft carrier
rwporter    5/31/2007 12:43:38 AM
If israel would buy the royal thais so called patrol helicopter carrier it would protect israels coastline in the mediterranean and maybe one similiar to place in the red sea in eliat.
 
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Herald1234       6/26/2007 11:54:23 PM




I disagree, an SSN would pose a lot of problems - politically it would be very difficult to justify selling to Israel, and in the littoral environment, it wouldn't have many benefits. The reality is that Israel's new SSKs are more than capable, and each cost less than one third as much as an SSN, and the running costs are less than a third as high. As such, instead of buying just two SSNs, they could buy and operate at least six subs, which would be more than enough. The subs basically just sit off in the Indian Ocean, hardly moving, since they are deterrent subs, and wait for orders to fire some missiles. They probably carry a couple of nuclear missiles at most - probably four max.





The ability to transit to the Indian Ocean and stand a deterrent patrol (maybe even stay a extra 30 days in an emergency) without refuel justifies their existance. Weapons load for a Popeye Nuclear missile ship would be allot more than four. SSK's are simply not up to the task. You would need cooperation from an ally or a support ship. Both are directly in opposition to stealthy nuclear deterrence.

 

Politics are nice when you have a country to debate policy about. Israel's enemies are increasingly able to extinguish her fire in an instant. SSN's balance the equation. In my humble opinion.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

 
1. Buy two surplus sub tenders and disguise it as a whaling ship or builds freighter and convert them into a disguised sub tender.
2. Find a friendly East African country [Kenya or South Africa?] or learn how to operate in Antartic conditions.
3. Maybe establish visiting privileges and local usage rights agreements with a like minded Indian Ocean state.
 
India has three SSKs now, and is prepared to option 2 more. German U-boats are very good. Maybe a little third party quid pro quo can increase this fleet from a possible five to the six of eight that would be nice.
 
ISRAEL
 
 
Current Capabilities
 

Based at Haifa, the Israeli Navy (IN) currently operates three modern, diesel-electric, Dolphin-class submarines. The IN is reportedly interested in acquiring at least two more units. In December 2003, two of Israel's three decommissioned Gal-class submarines arrived in Kiel for refits and modernization at Germany's Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft. They are to be reactivated for the IN.[1]
As previous conflicts involving Israel began with naval blockades, Israel's submarine force is viewed as critical to national security.  It is intended to exercise sea control over the Eastern Mediterranean and secure sea lines of communication; Israel is dependent on imports of grain, crude oil, and raw materials.[2,3]
Given Arab-Israeli tensions, and the alleged development of WMD capacities by some of its neighbors, Israel increasingly has been devoting funding toward countering these threats.[3] Acknowledging Israel's lack of strategic depth, its officials have pointed out that only submarines can provide a secure weapons platform in the future.[2]  While HDW has stated that Israel's Dolphin-class submarines were equipped with weapon systems similar to those installed on other diesel-electric submarines,[4] various sources have reported that upon their arrival in Israel, the submarines were modified, and fitted with cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads.[5]
Some reports suggest that Israel has adapted Harpoon cruise missiles, which have a range of 130 kilometers, to carry an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and guidance system, though other experts argue that such modifications to a Harpoon missile are not feasible.[6] Others believe that Israel has developed an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 320 kilometers that is believed to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority’s Po
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Replies   6/27/2007 10:56:53 AM
1. Buy two surplus sub tenders and disguise it as a whaling ship or builds freighter and convert them into a disguised sub tender.
2. Find a friendly East African country [Kenya or South Africa?] or learn how to operate in Antartic conditions.
3. Maybe establish visiting privileges and local usage rights agreements with a like minded Indian Ocean state.
 
India has three SSKs now, and is prepared to option 2 more. German U-boats are very good. Maybe a little third party quid pro quo can increase this fleet from a possible five to the six of eight that would be nice......
 
The conclusions you can draw are obvious. Israel thought about her needs to deter Iran as early as 1995 and conducted testing in 2000 to establish the deterrent she feels she needs to ensure that capability. Notice where she conducted her testing and how she conducted it? <Herald  
 
The idea of submarine based nuclear deterent is to have a force capable of responding in spite of conditions at home or in an allied port of call. Any requrement for a tender or support ship will give Israel's opponents a place to hunt. Not a valid strategy in my opinion. Agreements with third party countrys are a great way to have the enemy buy the intellegence and again "know where to hunt". Not a valid strategy either. Even the US might pull its support if Israel began regular stops at Diego Garcia (especially if the Jimmy Cater style of M.E. management becomes popular). Bad ju-ju all around I say.
 
I acknowledge what Lawman said about the political sensitivities, and I further accept what gf0012 Aust said about the US & UK transfering of technology.
 
My earlier comment about a cruise missile boat was as follows: "Weapons load for a Popeye Nuclear missile ship would be allot more than four. ...". I meant what I have been saying: build a new class of boat, nuclear powered, about the size of a Rubis +/- and design it to carry the Popeye (or its replacement) as a nuclear deterent. I am thinking an inventory of 8-12. Since it would be a new design that should not be a problem. I do not think that the 214 Undersea Boat is up to the task of being a mini Ohio.
 
The original question on this thread asked about an Israeli aircraft carrier. I still think if Israel were to make a major investment in its navy, then the development or co-development of a SSN along the lines of what I have proposed is a much better solution. Maybe India would pony up some cash to participate?
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
 
 
  
 
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Herald1234    Rocky reply.   6/28/2007 10:48:25 AM
1. The US adopted something like allied port visitation and tender support  with Holy Loch forward basing for its Polaris Poseidon armed boats.
2. If you want to use at-sea basing out of area you have to have tender support in the AO which is the Indian Ocean for Israel. Unless Israel has 2500 kilometer range SLCMs the subs have to base in the Indian Ocean.
3. The minimum number of disguised tenders is three. The point of putting to sea as an "R" ship is that even the Iranians don't have the resources to track you if you leave Haifa as a freighter and show up as a submarine tender. How are they going to stop you from vanishing when you exit the Gibraltar Straits?
 
What are the Iranians going to do if you disguise yourself under false colors? How do they track you? By the way can you guarantee that there isn't an anchorage in the IO in this day and age that a subtender can't set up shop without the owning government even knowing its there or looking the other way?
 
http://www.c7f.navy.mil/ships/cable-h.jpg" width=697 border=0>
 
 http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/islands_oceans_poles/indianoceanarea.jpg" width=628 border=0>
 
Mauritius and the Seychelles and other islands around Madagascar are one good place to hide. Islles Kerguellen and the other islands in the French Antarctic holdings make another good hiding place. Two weeks to close within missile range and KABOOM.
 
Simple, if you thought about it.
 
Herald
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    I certainly did think about it.   6/28/2007 3:34:35 PM
Mauritius and the Seychelles and other islands around Madagascar are one good place to hide. Islles Kerguellen and the other islands in the French Antarctic holdings make another good hiding place. Two weeks to close within missile range and KABOOM.
 
Simple, if you thought about it.
 
Herald
 
I thought about it and decided for a long term deterence it was insufficient. It is a small world. Even the US State Dept might give you up when we figure out what's up. They generally are very supportive of the "jimmy carter plan" (in other words the little southern bigot & the US Dem party would let Israel die to stay in good graces with the islamo whacko's and Euro-elites). I will not even get started on what the French, Russians, or Chinese might do if they smelled a project like this operating in the Indian ocean. Israel had best not depend on allies for this one.
 
As I noted above, twice I believe, a deterence like this should be based upon the ability to deliver a counter strike independently. Your scenario is great for a one time suprise mission but as a standing deterent it has too many loose ends. They could make do with that in a pinch but Admiral Rocky would flush it as the perminate third leg of a nuclear triad.
 
What I am talking about is a SSN utilized as a cruise missle platform as well as a boat capable of maritime warfare. Cruise missles with a range of about 1000 miles and capable of hitting anything in the region from a boat based in the Indian Ocean. With a nuclear boat Israel can sneek anyplace on the planet that is connected to the ocean.
 
I think an Israeli SSN fleet's benefits outweigh its political drawbacks and technical learning curve. So far it appears they don't agree with me.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
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Herald1234    SSN needs food, weapons, and heavy fuel oil as well as lube products..    6/28/2007 5:10:31 PM
Not to mention replacement air scrubbers, uniforms  fresh personnel and another  submarine to relive it on station.

Israel is a Spartan state; but where are they going to find the two billion euros  for two submarines much less the specialized crews they need for those boats, Rocky?

Not to take anything away from the Israelis, but a NUCLEAR boat is an entirely different kettle of fish from a a diesel electric. D/E boats are dangerous enough, so that you have to have elite operators, but nuclear boats have to be IDIOTLESS. You can't make mistakes with a nuclear submarine. It will kill you in so many ways you never expected. It has everything that a D/E boat has to kill you; as well as containing a small concentrated, highly poisonous, toxic, radioactive fission powered steam turbine electric generator plant that packs into 7000 tonnes or less actual machinery and shielding the stuff that we would hide under a 100,000 tonnes of concrete on land and still not feel safe.

Now with just two of these boats you want Israel to mount standing patrols?

The US has problems mounting standing patrols with nuclear boats [USS San Francisco] and our navy is EXPERT. 

Herald    



 
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RockyMTNClimber    Deterence, Needs, and End Games   6/28/2007 10:01:49 PM
Herald,
 
First off I concede that Israel must agree with your assessment of the SSN topic. They are acquiring and updating their current force of diesel/electrics with newer, quieter, AIP equipped, German boats. That said, I do believe the circumstances may be changing and their current deterrent strategy may soon not be adequate.
 
 Iran is currently running more than a thousand centrifuges and are expected to have 3,000 by year's end. They are making bomb material. They are also talking about "incinerating" Israel. Finally, Iran has missiles that have the potential to drop a nuclear payload onto Israel.
 
The first question to ask in this conversation is: Does Israel currently have an adequate nuclear deterrent?
They have some missiles that can hit most of Iran but those have to be run out and set up. They could build nuclear hardened shelters like the US Minuteman systems use to increase survivability but right now, today, if a 30kt warhead went off over the center of Israel. Their missile's ability to be fired in a timely manner might be lost. The Israeli's have tactical aircraft to deliver gravity bombs or short range missiles. The aircraft and air bases that they deploy from are also exposed to nuclear attack. The bottom line is that Israel's ability to counter a surprise nuclear attack is soon to be limited. My answer to question number one is: Today yes, Israel has an adequate nuclear deterrent for its needs but not for long.
 
The second question to ask is: how can Israel retain its nuclear deterrent in the face of the above? One of the options might be to develop a SSN capable of delivering a fatal blow to an unfriendly Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, or any other Islamo Fascist state.
 
Of course there are technical, political, and economic issues here but I think Israel has a problem and this might be a solution. They have a track record of doing things that are nigh on impossible. A Joint development project with India to build 6-8 small boats total, with high automation, say 20-25 man crews, capable of carrying a horizontal tube delivered weapon inventory of 14-20 missiles or torpedos (including in the mix some 1000 mile range nukes), and act as a last leg of a nuclear triad, could solve problems for both countries.
 
If they start today such a weapon might be on line in say about a decade. Plan today for tomorrows needs Herald.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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Herald1234    If I was Israel   6/29/2007 9:12:13 AM
1.  I would be very interested in a particle beam weapon and a BMEWS radar site paid for by a third party nation interested in those programs who would site those systems in Israel. Its easy to get those programs through in a government dominated by an anti-military political party that has to answer to a powerful Israel lobby, even though that political party is filled with despicable anti-Israel bigots who keep their prejudices hidden to avoid antagonizing the average voters.
2.  I would be discussing basing and retaliation options with another First World state that finds itself in the same miltary situation. Cross base retaliation options and share resources and join in a secret mutual defense treaty to handle third party states that threaten both nations.
3. In the meantime you buy TELS that are hardened against EMP and overpressure, as well as build shelter sheds for the mythical JERICHOs. Racetrack them.
4. At sea, take three old break bulk freighters and find someplace out of sight  where I can turn them into cruise missile launchers, for something cheap like KLUBs or POPEYES. These might as well be disguised subtenders as well.
5. Continue the SSK program to divert attention.
6. Build a  nuclear boat?  Israel can't afford it.

Herald



 
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RockyMTNClimber    Interesting Small Reactor Developments   6/29/2007 11:51:52 AM
The complete text is at the address below. In the near future it seems that we may have a simpler nuclear based power system. Japan & Russian evidently jointly developed this and it obviously has military/naval possibilities.
 
Cost is coming down and system safety is obviously going up. The article says the reactor does not even need an attendant.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
ht***tp://www.adn.com/front/story/4214182p-4226215c.html

Toshiba Corp., the Japanese electronics giant, calls its reactor the 4S system: super-safe, small and simple.

Washington, D.C., attorney Doug Rosinski, who represents Toshiba, calls the reactor a "nuclear battery," although it has nothing in common with the typical AA cell. The power comes from a core of non-weapons-grade uranium about 30 inches in diameter and 6 feet tall. It would put out a steady stream of 932-degree heat for three decades but can be removed and replaced like a flashlight battery when the power is depleted, he said.

The reactor core would be constructed and sealed at a factory, then shipped to the site. There it is connected with the other, nonnuclear parts of the power plant to form a steel tube about 70 feet long with the nuclear core welded into the bottom like the eraser in a pencil, Rosinski said. The assembly is then lowered into a concrete housing buried in the ground, making it as immune to attack or theft as a missile in its silo.

http://www.adn.com/ips_rich_content/988-21-Galena-reactor-182-x-370.gif" width=182>
 
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Herald1234    Looks like somebody ripped off the Canucks   6/29/2007 12:06:33 PM
GOOGLE Pebble Bed Reactor.

Herald

 
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Ezekiel    Israeli LHC   7/4/2007 11:45:12 AM
Israel has not the capacity to fund one of these mega machines....the best for Israel would be the LHC's that australia purchased from spain last week. it can launch VSTOL, UAV and helicopters, and an amphibious assualt group, this is far more pragmatic. Israel can purchase the F-35B variant in 10 years. The Israeli LHC will give it the force projection needed with far less cost and give it the added deterrence of credible amphibious assaults farther away from its borders. Israel like Australia has done, would incorporate its own stuff in the interior of the ship. This is far as Israel can go with its current budget and needs.
 
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