The War With China Begins On January 1st

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Subject: The War With China Begins On January 1st
SYSOP 12/5/2012 5:25:42 AM

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bikebrains The long arm of internal law 12/5/2012 10:22:11 AM

The sentence "Filipinos are also angry at how China has reneged on its agreement to withdraw its warships from Scarborough Shoal (which, according to internal law, is Filipino)." Should read "Filipinos are also angry at how China has reneged on its agreement to withdraw its warships from Scarborough Shoal (which, according to international law, is Filipino)." The above change is based on Pace International Law Review ...

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trenchsol 12/5/2012 11:22:50 AM

From what I've heard, and I might be wrong, most of the nations of Far East very much dislike each other ('hate' might be a better word). If that was not the case, they could form a bloc to counter Chinese efforts.

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vahitkanig 12/5/2012 4:32:55 PM

I apologize from Philippines but try to deal Iran ,China ,Russia nuslem radicals etc. may cause US exhaust .

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Skylark Sorry Charlie 12/6/2012 8:50:04 PM

As much as a problem China is to the various nations in that region, I am having trouble feeling much sympathy for the Philippines over the incursion into what is essentially a few isolated rocks sticking out of the ocean. First of all, the disputed reef is not all that close to the Philippine coastline, regardless what 'international law' might think of it, and second, the Filipinos would not even have this problem if they weren't so anxious to kick the US out of their long established air and naval bases back in 1992. If China were to get that close, (while we were there) US strategic interests would have overlapped with Philippine economic desires, and China would have probably been forced to back down. However, the situation we have today is the direct result of Philippine politicians back in 1991, getting tough on their staunch ally, America, for reasons of nationalism, populism, greed and an unhealthy dose of false pride, . They raised the "rent" to usurious levels, and when we refused to pay, they showed us the door without so much as a 'thank-you' for the Billions already poured into their economy over the last (nearly)100 years; not to mention the American blood spilled in defending and in liberating them. (Twice) Now they realize (belatedly) that the Philippines really is a punk island and that their farts stink after-all. So (surprise-surprise) the Filipinos dial up USA/911 and expect us to run to their defense... Sorry, Charlie... You made your bed, you sleep in it. I suggest you send China a bill for rent on the reef, and then order them to leave if it isn't paid... Hey, it worked once already, right? Failing that, just lodge a complaint with the ('heh') U.N. Yeah... that'll work... (Losers...)

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Reactive 12/7/2012 12:02:33 PM

Skylark makes a very good point imo - the US has very little interest in intervening here - especially to a quasi-failed state, when a resurgent power like the PRC starts matching its diplomatic belligerence with real actions the Philippines is likely to be one of the first victims, it will serve US interests by acting as a stark reminder to other states in the region where local and even national politicians (though presently reliant on the US defensive umbrella) pander to anti-american sentiment - South Korea and Japan will be watching developments closely.

Actually you can extend that logic much further afield - certainly to Europe where unfortunately the role of the United States in opposing and thwarting the USSR's ambitions has been deliberately downplayed to the extent that it is virtually forgotten - you can bet that in the presence of a genuine threat there would be a lot less noise about "US imperialism".

I think some percentage of the population here in the UK feel gratitude but I am certain it is diminishing as shiny new assumptions about "sustained world peace" have taken hold.

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TG 12/7/2012 1:49:16 PM

China knows:

1) With their aging population, they need to find cheap energy as fast as possible... Either by favorable contracts or by threatening (in order to ensure favorable contracts). Their threatening tactic is similar to suing someone that doesn't deserve to be sued... But it will get them concessions that otherwise might be out of reach, or will get them better trade deals if they can project power- or even project the potential of power.

2) They have about 10-20 more years of being able to force their way through the South China Sea... But they have to do it with a 1,000 papercuts strategy, because they can't build enough carriers and blue-water naval assets (and learn how to manipulate them in wartime scenarios) to do this effectively even in the next 20 years. And a decade from now, our drones would be fighting their people... And they'd be fighting over there (and not in the domestic US).

3) Money and talent is already beginning to flow out of China, and the best and the brightest will mostly continue to leave until corruption and individualization/representation are improved. That is almost a given... unless a unifying Chinese nationalist movement from something like a major war occurs. In that case, the young Chinese will die at rates that mean the elder Chinese will starve a few years later.
4) China knows that they can't get in a war with us for trading reasons, for money flow reasons, for electricity flow reasons, and so many others.
5) But China is working on propaganda to plan for all eventualities. "All we have to do" is contain the paper-cutting strategy, encourage a progression towards a more-free China, and step in for scuffles as a mediator only after getting China more engaged (so they pay their own way and start learning how to negotiate like a better neighbor). All of these should come together relatively peacefully so long as we don't get too aggressive and so long as countries don't put a gun to our head with terrorist strikes (especially nuclear).

Thomas Barnett's most recent series... Pre-Syria implosion, but still very insightful:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDVOP0lEECk

Part 6 references security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H18tokFQVLw ;

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WarNerd 12/8/2012 4:46:06 AM

I think some percentage of the population here in the UK feel gratitude but I am certain it is diminishing as shiny new assumptions about "sustained world peace" have taken hold.

Check a map of the trade routes. The major east-west shipping route passes through the South China Sea to the Singapore and the Strait of Malacca. Next best route requires you to pass south of Australia. If China succeeds in claiming the entire area, and given their history of ignoring international right-of-ways in the Yellow Sea, they control the route, and can strangle the trade to all of southern Asia across the Pacific at will. Or charge for transit.

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