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Subject: The North Blinks And Backs Off So Far
SYSOP    8/23/2015 5:32:44 AM
 
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m-1    Thank you, Strategy Page.   8/23/2015 12:06:08 PM
Gentlemen,
 
Thank you for this detailed report.
We live in an Ocean of lies, between Western Mass medias, Russian propaganda, and Chinese state medias.
 
This is good to find a source of detailed, accurate and concise information.
 
Unfortunately, we may live with a broken North Korea for decades, and as you wrote, even if it broke,China may take the remaining pieces of this failed state.
 
Pretty bad for those North Korean people.
 
Best Regards, 
 
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esmoore5       8/23/2015 7:31:16 PM
 
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esmoore5       8/23/2015 10:58:23 PM
 
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Yimmy       8/24/2015 2:25:04 PM
It's interesting to see how media reports have quoted South Korean officials saying how there is no way to track these Foxtrot, Romeo and Ming (?) type submarines.  They are designs from the 1940s and 50s.
 
Just the fact that so many of these old boats were capable of putting to sea and diving is pretty impressive; I bet some of them will not return though.
 
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esmoore5       8/24/2015 4:22:35 PM
Deal Reached To De-Escalate Volatile Situation On The Korean Peninsula:
 
"After three weeks of tit for tat action and reaction, a mega-dose of saber rattling, a North Korean deadline to war and three days of emergency high-level negotiations in an abandoned town near the DMZ, the North and South have come to an agreement that will supposedly deescalate the blazing military and political tensions on the Korean Peninsula."
 
See:
 
 
 
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trenchsol       8/24/2015 6:16:52 PM
I wonder how many of those submarines will manage to return home. Mini subs are not the easiest ships to navigate, plus age of the ships ....
 
 
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Nate Dog    From a purely want to watch the world burn   8/24/2015 7:07:15 PM
I would really have liked to see what happens when a bunch of P3's and modern sonared frigates and destroyers go head to head with a bunch of old diesel boats,
This is maybe, a little bit, what WW3 might've looked like from a naval point of view in the Kola peninsula.
 
Would love love to really see how effective sub hunting techniques are. No submarine has been sunk in a war shot since WW2, and i dont trust all the propaganda of how easy it would be to find and sink these puppies.

Really really curious, in an existential way, not insane so dont want this to happen at the expense of a bunch of Koreans dying, still, i really wanted to see modern sub hunting in practice.
 
 
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Yimmy       8/24/2015 7:13:34 PM
I agree, it would be interesting.  I would assume that the anti-U boat tactics would work, as honed in late WWII.  However, with the reliance on technology and helicopters now, at the expense of escort hulls, I expect a lot of the old lessons learned have been forgotten.
 
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trenchsol       8/24/2015 11:49:10 PM
No submarines have been sunk since WWI, indeed. However submarines sunk, at least two ships. HMS Conqueror sunk Argentinian cruiser, which was escorted by two Type 42 destroyers, which were modern and capable of ASW for that period. North Korean sub sunk South Korean corvette ROKS Cheonan. It appears that Cheonan was not equipped with any kind of sonar, although some other ships of the same class are.
 
In both cases target haven't got the first idea that submarine is there until very moment of torpedo impact.
 
There might be more. At least one Iranian ship was sunk in Red Sea by missiles which might have been fired from submarine. Some say that it might have been Israeli submarine.
 
US Navy is training against Swedish subs, which often give them (USN) a lot of troubles. Russian subs seem to be making incursions in Swedish waters and often being detected.
 
Perhaps this might provide some ideas what it might look like.
 
 
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joe6pack       8/25/2015 9:32:06 AM
>how easy it would be to find and sink these puppies
 
 It's a big ocean.. and these are tiny vessels.. Given the North Korean's have had some remarkable successes in the area of infiltration (getting commandos into the South and snatching Japanese citizens off of Japanese beaches.. as examples)..  The ROK not exactly being undefended and the Japanese not being slouches at the whole naval warfare thing..  It might say something about the North's ability to skulk about..
 
Do I think these subs would pose a  major threat to say a carrier group.. seems unlikely.. (but what do I know?)
 
But their ability to get out to sea.. lay mines.. go after merchant traffic..deploy commandos..
 
  The South Koreans have around a dozen subs.. and two dozen frigates and destroyers..    A respectable force.. but that just doesn't seem to provide much coverage..   No one has been running merchant convoys since WWII either.. and the last times we were thinking about it, was running the gauntlet to get to Europe..and considering the idea of nuclear depth charges..wasn't off the table.
 
While.. I agree the state of many of these subs is probably dubious.. their ability to cause mayhem may be considerable.  Trading a   <500 ton sub for a 100,000 + ton super tanker for instance.. is probably a pretty good deal on ROI.. (South Korea.. importing something like 40% of it's energy needs)  -
 
My 2 cents..
 
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