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Subject: How is Indonesia doing in their war against the Aech rebels
df-10    8/13/2003 9:23:38 PM
what do u people think?
 
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maranatha lidya    RE:How is Indonesia doing in their war against the Aech rebels   8/14/2003 10:23:02 AM
Those Aceh rebels must be dreaming. 5000 Aceh rebels with AK-47 are not going to make it, since they have to fight 35000 Indonesian troops who are armed with some F-16 and Sukhoi.
 
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maranatha lidya    RE:big deal   11/23/2003 10:28:30 AM
you are right about the F-16s, but we are getting more Sukhois, and the Russian government will give any components we need. Those Russian need money, you know.
 
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maranatha lidya    RE:big deal   11/23/2003 10:32:55 AM
and one more thing...Russia is the only European country who politically supports us in Aceh war, because we support them in Checnya
 
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vfrickey    RE:big deal   12/4/2003 1:33:14 PM
Regardless of the variant, the F-16 is of only limited use in a counter-insurgency role. If I were the Indonesian defense minister, I'd ask for some A-1 Skyraiders, which are: - great bomb trucks; - rough-field capable (allowing them to be based throughout Indonesia, not just at fighter-capable strips; - better at low strafing runs; - and have been used in the past to extract downed pilots from trouble (during the Vietnam war). The fuel/consumables costs for the Skyraider are apt to be much lower than for the F-16, to boot. Finally, there are probably a lot of them over at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base - the Indonesians should have quite a choice. Also, since the Powers That Be have decided to shoe-horn the F-16 into yet another role in which it doesn't fit - the tank-killer mission now very well filled by the A-10 - plenty of A-10s will probably become available to suppress guerilla formations. An A-10 would seem to be a very useful thing to have in Indonesia - not only effective against terrorist vehicles and bunkers, but possibly against Al-Qaeda ships as well. CIA should consider repeating their move with the B-26 in the Congo - buy up some A-10s, have them refitted and refurbished for the counterinsurgency close air support role, then send mercenary air and ground crews to trouble spots with the idea of making it a very dumb idea for terrorists to bunch up in formations large enough to see, engage in piracy, or set up any sort of built-up installation. Actually, a counter-insurgency mod of the A-10 sounds as though it would be effective in Iraq, too. Perhaps when the Iraqi government assumes responsibility for its own internal defense, CIA could lend them a few A-10s, too - it doesn't strike me as a bright idea to give/lend them AC-130s which would only wind up getting picked off by shoulder-launched SAMs.
 
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vfrickey    RE:big deal   12/4/2003 1:51:15 PM
"RE:big deal 11/23/2003 10:32:56 AM and one more thing...Russia is the only European country who politically supports us in Aceh war, because we support them in Checnya " Russia would have had broader based support in the West re:Chechnya had they not chosen to ignore repeated human rights violations by their troops against Chechen civilians. As an American, I support the Russians' desire to suppress Chechen militants - the Barricade theater incident showed the world what the Chechens are all about - but the Russians make it difficult for any democratic country to express support by allowing their own troops to murder and rape civilians. I don't know whether the Indonesian government troops are guilty of atrocities in Aceh, or if they are guilty of allowing Muslim militias of committing atrocities. If that is happening, though, then no one should be surprised if our support for counter-insurgency operations in Aceh is not as strong as perhaps it ought to be.
 
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vfrickey    RE:How is Indonesia doing in their war against the Aech rebels   12/4/2003 2:12:09 PM
maranatha lidya said: "Those Aceh rebels must be dreaming. 5000 Aceh rebels with AK-47 are not going to make it, since they have to fight 35000 Indonesian troops who are armed with some F-16 and Sukhoi." Welcome to the 21st century. Terrorists, militants and others are all discovering that the way to fight a modern nation-state is "asymmetric warfare," in which the target government is never allowed to apply its strengths to its own defense. Those 5,000 guerillas in Aceh are never going to line themselves up in formation against 35,000 Indonesian government troops - they'll strike where the troops are not, then melt back into the bush. The one lesson no one seems to have drawn from Vietnam is that the only way to win against a insurgency is to put troops on the ground and have them live among the people whom they protect. The "strategic hamlet" program in which a small unit of US Marines was teamed with a larger unit of local troops, and the Marines and locals patrolled together, trained together, lived together was very successful, but it didn't conform to General Westmoreland's desire to crush the Vietnamese in a set-piece combined arms battle - a battle the Communists were too smart to give them until Westmoreland had left. When they tried to defeat the South Vietnamese Army (under the tutelage of General Creighton Abrams) in set-piece battles, the North Vietnamese Army broke itself trying to beat American arms and tactics used by a moderately well-trained force with good morale. The NVA forgot their own lessons. Indonesia should be studying Iraq closely, because the people behind the terrorist attacks there will probably be available to cause more trouble in Indonesia later. A strong, honest government which allows all of its people to feel as though they have a stake in the local political process is worth lots of troops and second-line attack fighters. If you have the first one, you need less of the second. If you don't have the first one, no amount of troops and jet fighters is going to help you win a bush insurgency.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:How is Indonesia doing in their war against the Aech rebels   12/5/2003 12:48:42 AM
As an Australian I am supportive of the Indonesian government's efforts in Aceh. It is not in the interests of the interational community to have another Muslim fundamentalist state on the edge of another of the world's busiest sea routes, the Straits of Malacca. I would like to think that they can do the job without treading to hard on human rights, though I don't know how interested the Aceh Muslims really are in democracy given their insistance on introducing Sharia law. A dose of benign imperialism might be the go for them, I think. Also, I see no reason why the Indonesian Air Force, given good ground/forward air control, shouldn't be effective in Aceh. They have plenty of Hawk 100/200's and A-4's for the CAS role, all of which can drop a credible bomb load and are small enough to dodge most ground fire.
 
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gf0012-aus    maranatha lidya    12/5/2003 1:48:25 AM
you said.. "and one more thing...Russia is the only European country who politically supports us in Aceh war, because we support them in Checnya" So Indonesia, as a Muslim country is supporting Russia in suppressing separatist Muslims in Chechnya? These are the same chechyans who are being supported by other Muslims states??
 
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PuckaMan    Aceh is only one of Indonesia's problems.....   12/21/2003 5:10:20 AM
Aceh is only one of the insurgency problems, there are many others, notably West Papua. Basically, Indonesia isn't the most stable of countries. The Indonesian military, the TNI, for all its numbers is geared almost exclusively for supression of insurgency. They are brutal, heavy handed and have many human rights violations against them, and continue to rack them up. While I have sympathy for the rebels, It is certainly not in Australia's or anyone elses interests to see further disintegration of Indonesia. The conflict in Aceh and other territories are an inevitable result of decolonisation that was completely insenstive to the local cultural differences. It is unfortunately, too late to change that important fact..
 
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maranatha lidya    vfrickey, good point   12/30/2003 7:39:37 AM
you are right about the guerilla war, but you have to know that Indonesian troops are also trained in guerilla wars. We fought the dutch for 350 years using the guerilla war strategy. So, I'm pretty confident that our troops will kick their butt in no time. For now, I think our main problem is not the rebels in Aceh or West Papua, our main problem is Islamic-based terrorist groups (Jamaah Islamiyah-JI for example). They are well-organized, brutal, insane, and willing to commit suicide. They'll stab you from behind!
 
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