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Subject: Iron Dome Spoils The Hamas Surprise Attack
SYSOP    11/20/2012 5:37:21 AM
 
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human1    rockets   11/21/2012 3:33:00 PM
At first, It looked like rocket from Gaza were declining but on Tuesday 189 rockets were fired.
So I wonder if this analysis is still valid ? We will see the result of Wednesday. 
Hamas places fake rockets to lure Israeli fighters
 
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Don Vandervelde    get real   11/21/2012 11:24:09 PM

   Nerd, this is war, not a football game.  A level playing field and fair play have no place here. If Hamas barbarians insists on destroying their own people in order to generate sympathy, its on them, plus it shortens the war which has gone on way too many decades already.  War should be avoided, but when it's inevitable, it should be won.  In the end fewer people will be killed.
 
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voland       11/24/2012 9:04:36 PM
@American God: two mis-attributions. "They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity" is by Abba Eban. "useful idiots" is from Lenin's works.  other than that, no objections.
 
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WarNerd       11/25/2012 2:39:28 AM
   Nerd, this is war, not a football game.  A level playing field and fair play have no place here. If Hamas barbarians insists on destroying their own people in order to generate sympathy, its on them, plus it shortens the war which has gone on way too many decades already.  War should be avoided, but when it's inevitable, it should be won.  In the end fewer people will be killed.
Vandervelde – Pay attention
 
1. The point of war is not a body count, it is to impose your will on the enemy. It is psychological, not physical. Yes, a body count can help bring it about, but only if the vast majority of the bodies are the right people.
 
2. This war is about global public opinion, which is the same as the above, but on a larger stage.
 
3. Lastly, to win you have to break the cycle of revenge. Even if you eliminate Hamas by killing 10 Palestinians for every Hamas member, say about 40,000 people out of a population of 1,700,000, you will lose because something new, much larger, and probably more radical, will be created from the demand for revenge of the relatives of the innocent victims. Yes, the Palestinians already hate the Israelis, but there is a difference between hatred and a need for revenge. Most Palestinians want a decent life more than revenge, but they are trapped with the radicals. Minimize the innocent victims, minimize the next cycle of revenge.
 
Having said all that, I think we can agree that Israel stopped too soon. Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud will probably pay for it in January elections, if Likud doesn’t drop him earlier. It will be interesting to see what comes next
 
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voland       11/25/2012 2:19:41 PM
@warNerd

3. Lastly, to win you have to break the cycle of revenge.
 you break the cycle of revenge by depriving the opponent of the ability to engage in it.  see my reply yo (1).
 
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voland       11/25/2012 2:27:26 PM
@warNerd
1. The point of war is not a body count, it is to impose your will on the enemy. It is psychological, not physical.
...
2. This war is about global public opinion, which is the same as the above, but on a larger stage.
...
3. Lastly, to win you have to break the cycle of revenge
 this is embarrassing.  the post had 3 quotes and only the last one was picked up.  reformatted text and re-posting.
(1)
it is, first and foremost, physical.  that is what makes psychological acceptance of defeat possible.  Carthage is a good example.  Jewish War (destruction of the second temple) is another one.  in the first case, there was nothing left to resist.  in the second one, the possibility of resistance was destroyed.  Tet offensive outcome was unique in its incongruity: military defeat made into a victory.  but i agree that body count is irrelevant.
(2)
nope.  public opinion is relevant only when the country is too small to influence decision makers. military dismemberment of Serbia was possible.  but Russia?  no way.  public opinion of Russia's backing of Assad is not favorable but neither the brits not the french are chomping at the bit like they did on Libya.
(3)
 you break the cycle of revenge by depriving the opponent of the ability to engage in it.  see my reply yo (1).
 
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WarNerd       11/26/2012 4:44:23 AM
(1)
it is, first and foremost, physical.  that is what makes psychological acceptance of defeat possible.  Carthage is a good example.  Jewish War (destruction of the second temple) is another one.  in the first case, there was nothing left to resist.  in the second one, the possibility of resistance was destroyed.  Tet offensive outcome was unique in its incongruity: military defeat made into a victory.  but i agree that body count is irrelevant.
You might want to read the works Sun Tzu and Clausewitz. They are usually considered experts, and don’t agree with you.
(2) nope.  public opinion is relevant only when the country is too small to influence decision makers. military dismemberment of Serbia was possible.  but Russia?  no way.  public opinion of Russia's backing of Assad is not favorable but neither the brits not the french are chomping at the bit like they did on Libya.
The entire world is not a small country that can be ignored.
(3)
 you break the cycle of revenge by depriving the opponent of the ability to engage in it.  see my reply yo (1).
That only leaves them unable to respond immediately, but you have to continuously act to keep them from accumulating the capacity. After the 2006 invasion of Gaza the missiles and artillery attacks stopped for a short while, but in 2012 they were hitting Tel Aviv. To stop it permanently you either have to either reduce the desire to attack, or eliminate the entire population.
 
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