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Subject: Minimal Air Defense
Roman    5/29/2007 8:57:07 PM
What kind of minimal air defense (in terms of personnel and equipment) would be the smallest air defense worth having? By 'minimal' I mean the smallest that is still worth obtaining and maintaining at all - any smaller and one would be better off not fighting for the skies at all and investing the money elsewhere.
 
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murabit821       6/13/2007 3:40:44 PM
Swiss Air force have one Battalion with 5 companies
Swedish army train ground observers (sending info via TS9000)

 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 4:30:53 PM
So for 12 years, 60% of your procurement budget (which I believe is already too high) will be spent buying 7 aircraft.  Will the remaining 40% be spent buying that one Hawkeye?  What about trainers?  What about helos?  Do your land forces and navy have to take a procurement holiday for 12 years to pay for a handful of shiny toys for the air force?
Infrastructures are build at local price!
Yes, but anything that requires foreign contractors like upgrading any electronics infrastructure, power, etc., will be at foreign rates.  Does this country make it's own power generators?  Power distribution hardware?  Does it meet Western standards so you don't blow out your Rafale's supporting electronics and hardware?  Do you have to upgrade your air traffic control systems to support talking to these aircraft?  Do you have to integrate the IFF systems from these Russian SAMs and early warning radars with your Rafales and Hawkeyes so you don't inadvertently shoot down these massively expensive national assets?With only 7 aircraft, can you actually use them in anything short of a full-scale conflict?  Or will they be too valuable to risk?
 
I calculated the whole procurement +spare+oil at 2688 m$ which seems for me close to the maximum.It is 58% budget.
However you could consider that Sweden spend 55% of its budget in R&D+procurement (without spares +oil) during cold war this good training.Even more if you take in account spares +oil and this with much bigger salary.
In fact I'm not at maximum wihc could be up to 70% considering their low salaries.
 
You could consider that Finland had ordered 63 F18 in a single batch with a 600 m€ procurement budget.More than 8 years budget.Even more in proportion.
You could consider than we speak of equiment cycle of 32 years.Even they spend 60% of procurement on their most costly system, after it cost much less and rest is spend on other equipement
 
On infrstructure, cost is normally less (about 2,5/3%) in most armies including NATO.I pur it at 5% to take in acccount imports.But chinese electric generators are cheap...
 
Do you have to upgrade your air traffic control systems to support talking to these aircraft?  Do you have to integrate the IFF systems from these Russian SAMs and early warning radars with your Rafales and Hawkeyes so you don't inadvertently shoot down these massively expensive national assets?
Included in procurement: I have budgeted 100 m$ on air traffic control.IFF are in normal price of rafale and other equipements.Quite cheap item BTW.
 
With only 7 aircraft, can you actually use them in anything short of a full-scale conflict?  Or will they be too valuable to risk?
Other have only 12 decent fighters.With a E2C (but we could elaborate a scenario without a E2C), rival Mig 29 are only targets.
It is a mix of Swedish/Finland quality armies adapted to a low income country.An HI LOW mix.
 
 
 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 4:32:06 PM
murabit821    
What is your job? Are you a professional?
 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 4:41:25 PM
When you get those true figures if you can, recompute your assumptions about COSTS. That new tally doesn't even count the costs for training in perishable maintenance as well as combat skills plus hardware and software upgrades plus at least a thousand things you never took into account just for RAFALEs not to mention the 1400 other line items a modern military uses.
 
Herald 
You think maybe I'm an amateur? LOL
I took all of that in account.
I took 1,2 m$ for training (spare +oils) and manpower is in professional manpower budget (9 men per Rafale for maintenance+conscripts : it is even over estimated).For such a low budget pilots are send abroad to get initial training.No trainer for this country.Pilots are trained at NATO level (180 hours per year and I supposed 12 pilots trained).
 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 4:43:10 PM
1,2 m$ for training per rafale of course (spare+oil)
 
 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 4:48:03 PM
If you think it is abnormal, think that Sweden spend 5300 m€ at end of cold war including 900 m€ R&D for its whole armed forces which included  330 fighters (plus tanls, subs etc..).So (5300-900)/(144/1,3)=40 so this country could have 8,3 fighters with same budget breakdown (but sweden has even higher salaries and a navy).
 
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B.Smitty       6/13/2007 4:59:01 PM


To B-Smitty: According to the CIA figures, Kyrgyzstan's nominal GDP is $2.24 billion and military spending accounts for 1.4% of the GDP, which amounts to $31.36 million. You confused nominal and PPP GDP (the latter is indeed $10.49 billion), but if you looked at the PPP GDP of the theoretical country it would also be much, much higher than the figure stated and so would the military budget. Still, your concerns about auxiliary spending to support the weapon systems is justified unless french_stratege factored it in already.

Yes, of course you are right.  Exchange rate GDP is a better figure to use in this case, though you'd get closer to PPP dollars for local infrastructure improvements not involving foreign contractors or goods. 

And I still don't seen how this country is simultaneously going to buy fighters, Hawkeyes, SAMs and other GBAD hardware, and improvements to ground force and the navy (which are undoubtedly needed). 

 
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murabit821       6/13/2007 7:22:15 PM
i study yet more about Gripen contract for Czech republic
1,034 bilion usd for 14 JAS-39 (12 JAS-39C 2x JAS-39D)


this contract also include (within this price)
- equipment for ground support and maintenance
- spare parts and logistic support for ten years
- training for pilots and ground crew
- flying combat simulator
- operation combat planning system
- pilots equipment

additional costs
- infrastucture on air force base 435 milion usd
- basic combat weapons 230mil usd
- one flying hour cost 2700 usd
- update aircrafts in year 2020 , from 4th generation to 4,5 generation 220mil usd

offset programs account 1,3 bilion usd in 16 projects  130% (20% direct offset to defence industry in Czech republic)

hm not bad

first variant of  contract for 24 JAS-39 (cost 3,7 bilion usd )
but there is one big difference
- spare parts and training are for entire life cycle (declared by producer 35 years (8000 flying hours)

i found on additional info

that acquisition  (1,034 bilion usd )
Czech republic Goverment take loan from banks (85% from international banks (British goverment guarantee through ECGD agency and 15% from Czech banks )
payment one per year (10 years loan)

to french stratege
with sweden 330 fighter remember  in that time fighters cost less than today (calculate with inflation) also  tanks and others. that in future , weapons cost more  , and countries can buy less weapons (just we are tribal gerila with AK :)

with buildings
one building  for one conscript or militia company cost about 230000 - 250000 usd (build from bricks, tile roof)
(now i have big knowledge about materials and building works, price etc, because i build my house that moment , also my brother is architect )
that this house  have life cycle about 50-100 years (only small modernisation every 20 years (heating and electricity)
(we have another house witch was build before 120 years from un baked bricks and still is perfect for living )

trucks , tanks , apc we can put on open air (like Russian), or under open canopy s (as i see durring my service )

to French stratege
my job
i am tradesman , producer of signs (with cut plotter)

i have interest on warfare , from widely direction (from uniforms, personal systems , ranks , equipment to tactic , strategy ,orbats, toe and many others about navy , air force , army  also police, law enforcment agencies, local goverment , politic, religion , geography , history)










 
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murabit821       6/13/2007 8:44:41 PM





To B-Smitty: According to the CIA figures, Kyrgyzstan's nominal GDP is $2.24 billion and military spending accounts for 1.4% of the GDP, which amounts to $31.36 million. You confused nominal and PPP GDP (the latter is indeed $10.49 billion), but if you looked at the PPP GDP of the theoretical country it would also be much, much higher than the figure stated and so would the military budget. Still, your concerns about auxiliary spending to support the weapon systems is justified unless french_stratege factored it in already.



Yes, of course you are right.  Exchange rate GDP is a better figure to use in this case, though you'd get closer to PPP dollars for local infrastructure improvements not involving foreign contractors or goods. 

And I still don't seen how this country is simultaneously going to buy fighters, Hawkeyes, SAMs and other GBAD hardware, and improvements to ground force and the navy (which are undoubtedly needed). 


that fictional country dont have navy because is land locked

me also think there is no way to have all this systems together , maybe with blessing
we can have few fighters with manpads GBAD or have medium GBAD

i  try calculate budget based on finland defence budget

total 144 mil usd

personal 59 mil usd
   (74% for army 26 for AF )

- conscripts 2 mil usd
- proffesional 40 mil usd
- civilian personal 17 mil usd

operations nad maintance 44 mil usd
   (65% for Army 35% for AF )
- material for current uses 9,6 mil usd
- maintenance and repair 3,4 mil usd
- purchased services 11 mil usd
- rent costs 12,9 mil usd
- others 7,1 mil usd

procurement and construction 41 mil usd
   (85% for Army 15% for AF)
depend on current procurement

proportions as  in finland budget

result numbers of personal derived from finland defence and budget

1668 readiness strengh in peace (800 cadre profesional soldiers)
mobilized wartime strengh 17000

but our fictional country are poor then finland and we can have more personal for same budget
probably 3 more times
another  matter is weapons

GDP per capity in our fictional coutry is 8,5 x less than in Finland
that we can save a lot of many on personal costs
40mil for 800 cadre personal is to big
(real numbers can be around 10 mil for 1200 cadre soldiers )
and 5 mil usd for  civilians

total save 42 milions usd
divide them to Operations and Procurement

this new budget 144mil usd total

personal 17 mil usd
operation and maintenance 64 mil usd
procurement 62 mil usd

readiness army 2500 (1200 cadre)
wartime 22100







 
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french stratege       6/13/2007 9:42:50 PM
murabit821
You did a mistake concerning personal as you have to divide population by 2,5 to do a scale down
Titletotal save 42 milions usd
divide them to Operations and Procurement
this new budget 144mil usd total
personal 17 mil usd
operation and maintenance 64 mil usd
procurement 62 mil usd
readiness army 2500 (1200 cadre)
wartime 22100
Then you find an even bigger budget for procurement than me since I used 84 m USD for procurement +spare and fuel
Spare and fuel are a part of operation and maintenace.

 
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