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Subject: S-300PMU2 Favorit to Syria?
Shirrush    1/19/2007 9:25:26 AM
An unconfirmed, and less-than-reliable source (http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1249) claims that Iran will pay US$ 2.4G for four "Grumble" battalions in Syria. My question: how can a reasonably decent, but decidedly non-stealth air force deal with a SAM threat that has a range which covers most of its home airspace, at the same time as its own airbases are under constant heavy artillery rocket bombardment? This is NOT a theoretical thread. I'm inquiring about tactical/technological options that stand a strong chance of being implemented, soon!
 
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Shirrush       1/19/2007 9:33:47 AM
Link quoted in the above.
 
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Softwar    Decoys   1/19/2007 11:19:22 AM
The number of SA-10C missiles is not likely to exceed the number of target drones available to other states bordering Syria.  The S-300 units will have to shoot lest the drones turn out to be a real planes or cruise missiles.  It will give away the firing unit positions and soak up precious missiles.  The drones (e.g. Firebee) can be launched from both fixed and mobile sites.  It would help to mix in some fake radar and air-to-air communications (not difficult) to make the drones appear real.  Mix in a couple of land attack missiles (modified Harpoon?) aimed at critical command nodes and they have to shoot.
 
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YelliChink    Shirrush   1/19/2007 12:31:07 PM
What's Harpy II built for? To take out enemy SAM systems! It is way easier and cheaper to build Harpy drones than 48N6 missiles. You can literally force Syrian to run out of their missile stock by using Harpy drones.
 
There are three ways to neutralize SAM systems:
 
1. Dodge: Do not fly into the SAM system's envelope,
2. Kill: Use AR missiles or weapons to kill the radar,
3. Jam: US ECM to burn the radar to reduce its effective range.
 
Israelis also have advantage due to its occupation of Golan Heights. It decreases the effective range behind the heights and allows IAF more safe operating height behind. IDF can also build jamming spots on the Heights to effectively reduce the effective range of the missile system.
 
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french stratege       1/20/2007 12:51:08 AM
Radar fighters are able to recognize fighter type by identifying features on radar reflection and you think a modern ground system do not have such features?And it can be supplemented by infrared/visual trackers.
Drone also should have the same speed than fighters to make credible targets.
However it is also true that no heavy air defense system is invulnerable especially to low level attacks.
Israel will have to accept maybe more losses but can destroy them.
However the combination with ballistic missiles attacks on air base can be deadly.
The goal is to win time and deny air superiority to Israelis.So Syrian ground forces could have a chance during few days.
However syrian ground forces are in a so bad shape and it is impossible that Syrian could imagine today a great offensive.
The goal is more to deter Isael to attack Syria while Syria would use proxies to fight a non conventional war without.fearing a retaliation by an Israeli  conventional offensive.
 
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Herald1234    Ignoring the obvious.   1/20/2007 7:28:55 AM
Take a map of the middle east and draw a range ring for Mister GRUMBLE set back just beyond Israeli artillery range in Syria from the Golan. Then spot the coverage over northern Israel-especially over Israel's  IDF AF bases. The coverage extends over Lebanon too. Figure it out. Sheesh.

Herald

 
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Softwar    Fool Radars? Wear a Mask.   1/20/2007 9:41:01 AM

Radar fighters are able to recognize fighter type by identifying features on radar reflection and you think a modern ground system do not have such features?And it can be supplemented by infrared/visual trackers.

Drone also should have the same speed than fighters to make credible targets.

However it is also true that no heavy air defense system is invulnerable especially to low level attacks.

Israel will have to accept maybe more losses but can destroy them.

However the combination with ballistic missiles attacks on air base can be deadly.

The goal is to win time and deny air superiority to Israelis.So Syrian ground forces could have a chance during few days.

However syrian ground forces are in a so bad shape and it is impossible that Syrian could imagine today a great offensive.

The goal is more to deter Isael to attack Syria while Syria would use proxies to fight a non conventional war without.fearing a retaliation by an Israeli  conventional offensive.


Dones can be equipped with radar reflective devices (aka Masks) that make them look exactly like fighters or bombers on radar.  This is a common practice - the US Quail drone was designed to appear as a B-52 on radar.  The right reflectors, the correct angles and poof! - instant BUFF on your radar.  The US deployed a number of drones, air and ground launched against Iraq.  Again, most of them were equipped with reflectors to appear as F-15, F-16 and F-18 fighters.  It's all a matter of engineering, some right angles, a bit of aluminum and your former Firebee is now an F-15 Strike Eagle.  Let the decoys soak up the SA-10s.
 
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Yimmy       1/20/2007 1:27:49 PM
In the context of the Middle East, these SAM's facilitate offensive actions by the Arabs.  Like the Egyptians tried before, they can build a SAM shield over any offensive forces probing into Israel.  Given how poor their air-forces are, this would seem to be a highly sensibly purchase.
 
 
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reefdiver       1/20/2007 1:58:57 PM
Anyone see mention of or compute how many missiles were included with the purchase?
 
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Shirrush       1/20/2007 2:32:09 PM
That'd be four batteries of six-eight launchers, each with 48 weapons. So we'd have 192 missiles, but  I don't know if this includes reloads.
 
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displacedjim       1/20/2007 5:55:48 PM
SAMs are only as good as their access to information. The best way to take out a SAM battalion is to deny it any targeting data. All IADS follow the same general C2 structure, so the ideal (if within the capabilities of the attacking force) way to degrade an SA-20 threat is for the attacker to blind or destroy the air operations centers where the actual battle management decisions are made. These are still typically relatively immobile and identifiable. Of course, they also will probably have multiple overlapping SA-20, SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, SA-6, and SA-8 battalions deployed within range, and you'll probably have to fly through the missile engagement zones of multiple other SAM battalions to get to the operations centers and SA-20 battalions. Good intelligence preparation is essential to maintain an accurate defensive missile order of battle. Using this data and good modeling and simulation techniques will allow you to plan optimized ingress/egress routes to minimize exposure to the SAMs and to plan which SAMs are unavoidable and hence need to be engaged kinetically and/or non-kinetically.
 
As mentioned, the GRUMBLE is a killer but only has a relatively limited number of ready rounds. Each launcher holds four missiles, and I would say typical deployment patterns are four to six launch vehicles per battalion; however, anywhere up to twelve launchers per battalion is possible. Thus, I'd expect probably only about 16 to 24 ready rounds per battalion.  On top of that, it is a common doctrine with SAMs to engage each track with two missiles. Back in 1982 the Israeli Air Force ran the new Syrian SA-6 battalions dry in the Bekaa using decoys, and then struck before the Syrians could reload. The problem in taking on Syria itself in this fashion is that Syria also has several hundred other SAMs that could potentially also take out the drones as long as the IADS is still intact and a proper air surveillance picture can still be formed and passed to the battle managers, who can still communicate their orders to the firing units. Thus they certainly don't have to only shoot off their SA-20s first.
 
While there may indeed be some non-cooperative target recognition capability in some modern SAM target engagement radars (and the SA-20 is among the most modern), most of the world's air surveillance networks are not that sophisticated?and it's the air surveillance picture that comprises most/all of the air picture fed to the battle managers, not typically what the SAM operators see. Depending on the scope of the scenario (single raid, air campaign, all-out war), this calls for a good IO campaign that includes decoy drones, stand-off jamming (of the SA-20 battalion's TIN SHIELD and TOMB STONE [good luck with that], the BIG BIRD if they get one, the dozens of other acquisition radars that will be lighting up the area, the other target engagement radars for the other SAM battalions within range of the flight paths of the ingressing jets, and of any of the IADS C3 links that aren't landline), self-protection jamming (including towed decoys), HARMs, and some long-range missiles/armed drones of your own is called for.
 
 
 
 
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