The Scary Bluff

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Subject: The Scary Bluff
SYSOP 7/5/2014 5:47:02 AM

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Chris Ha! 7/5/2014 9:30:52 AM

The Chinese aren't stupid - they aren't going to do anything to take over N. Korea. They are also aware of the studies done by the S. Koreans during the days of the ultra-liberal "sunshine policy", when reunification was a hot and heavy topic.

The SK government commissioned a study to determine the costs involved with reunification, using the E/W German experience as a model. And the comparative costs to reunify, or even put N. Korea back on its feet are astronomical.

At least the E. Germans were pretty well educated, had infrastructure (albeit in need of repair), and not suffering from malnutrition. None of this is the case in N. Korea - their people would have to be almost totally reeducated, infrastructure would have to be built (from scratch), and are barely functional as a result of many years of poor nutrition (if not outright starvation).

Even the most optimistic cost estimates were so staggering, that even the most liberal of liberals in S. Korea dropped the reunification idea entirely, opting instead to try to encourage N. Korea to fix itself. The Chinese are well aware of these studies, and want the NK's to fix their own problems as well. The N. Korean leadership realizes this as well, which is why they feel they can largely do what they want.

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HR Not really 7/5/2014 5:10:17 PM

The Chinese could manage the coup with minimum of troops and by placing a puppet government in place. The North can take care of itself after that. But they will not take over because of obvious nationalistic feelings as well as the unwanted problem of a border with a iron-clad ally of the USA.

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manny 7/6/2014 2:23:19 AM

Your talking about China, like they had the same capability as U.S, Britain or Russia. Last time China invaded somewhere (Vietnam) they got their ass kicked, and when is the last time they made a coup and put a puppet dictator in place? If I was China, I'd ask the U.S and Britain or Sth Korea for help in mounting a coup and installing a puppet government. That will scare the shit of north korea too.

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joe6pack 7/6/2014 12:53:39 PM

I'd also suggest that one of the reasons the North Koreans have been pursuing nuclear weapons (aside from propaganda) is an insurance policy against just such an intervention - from the North.

Their artillery and the potential damage it could do to Seoul has been a sufficient deterrent to the South.. for many years.

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avatar3 GI no touchee!! 7/6/2014 6:02:34 PM

Gentlemen; My experience with the Koreans and Chinese has been more on the eye to eye level. Having had a guided tour of the Korean countryside, savoring the weather, meeting the people, trying the food, and in general luxuriating in the robust oriental hospitality I can say from the bottom of my Frost Bitten Feet, "leave the bastards alone, let them kill each other off!"' China should take North Korea, that would be fair because we (the US) got South Korea. Now isn't that being diplomatic? :7)

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manny 7/6/2014 9:51:35 PM

The nuclear option is a poor substitute for the bamboo torture option, which is what would happen to every north korean bureaucrat and their family if they ever decided to use a nuke against china.

Their best option is to just assassinate north korean leadership figures, eventually they'll find someone who's a half decent leader. Granted there will be repercussions, but China has a strong security apparatus. They can work with the south koreans on this, who previously had a similiar program, but lacked the willpower to sustain their losses.

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WarNerd 7/8/2014 12:20:58 AM

The nuclear option is a poor substitute for the bamboo torture option, which is what would happen to every north korean bureaucrat and their family if they ever decided to use a nuke against china.

Kim doesn’t care about the rest of the Koreans. As far as he is concerned when he is out of power (or dies, same thing) the world ends. So why shouldn’t it end for as many others as possible?

That’s what scares China so much about North Korean nukes, if Kim has to go they are the most likely target, not South Korea.

Problems:

1. Kim has killed any strong leader in position to follow him. As a result, when he dies North Korea enters a period of political collapse and fragmentation, ending in warlordism and economic collapse. China seriously wants to avoid this.

2. Recruiting and getting the assassins into position. Kim has eliminated anyone with Chinese sympathies in the party apparatus. Chinese diplomats and tourists are watched better than western ones because they are a more immediate threat. The Chinese secret networks have been compromised and rolled up. In short, China can’t recruit assassins in North Korea, or bring their own into the country.

3. Doing it repeatedly is wishful thinking.

Bottom line is that the Chinese have no options, except chaos and collapse, unless they intervene militarily, and both the Chinese leadership and Kim know it. The Chinese have Kim right where he wants them.

This leaves China with the option they don’t want -- invasion. This is because they will need to supply massive economic support to whatever puppet they install and a large occupation force, a lot like the USA in Afghanistan, to maintain him in power.

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manny 7/9/2014 3:20:43 AM

That's the U.S/South Korea pansy scenario since they haven't got the balls for a assasination program and coup. North Korea is one of histories most oppressive and militant societies, but your telling me if the leader is killed it suddenly becomes Somalia. Very funny. The only thing the leader cares about is himself and his family. You threaten that with death and torture and you have some leverage on his government. And no fear of getting nuked. If China got russian assistance in penetrating north korea with spies. And south korean/U.S assistance mounting a military operation. They could decapitate alot of north koreas senior leadership and get change to happen. In anycase this is all theoretical. China is annoyed by north korea but that is all. They are only publically complaining about them for PR purposes, they don't want to appear too disinterested about the whole thing. It's funny how they get blamed for what is supposed to be a south korean/U.S problem, lol. But that's western media for you.

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HR War Nerd 7/10/2014 9:51:55 AM

You are correct in all that you posted but one thing... of all the countries concerned China is the one that has penetrated the government apparatus to a degree that no one else has. Even with some of its sympathizers having been caught and killed it is still the one country that could pull a Crimea type coup in North Korea with most of its close by neighbors acquiescence if not their open cooperation in the coup including the sending of fuel, food, supplies and essentials to avert a human disaster.

No one wants a border with China. North Korea helps by being a buffer state albeit a big one between South Korea and the Chinese. The Koreans might complain about Japanese occupations like it was a huge stain bur in reality the Chinese are the ones with a longer history of conflict in Korea who has been historically forced into an un-easy co-existence with the Han.

Kind of odd.

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WarNerd 7/11/2014 5:14:55 AM

The Chinese had that degree of penetration, past tense. They don’t anymore, that’s their problem.

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