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 News As History - November 23, 2009




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Subject: 20 million Chinese workers axed
gf0012-aust    2/2/2009 6:35:54 AM
weeks ago on the armed forces thread I said that the numbers we were predicting for chinese unemployment due to the financial meltdown were in the order of 20m people. I also said that the biggest concern would be the social instability associated with it.

well, now the chinese govt is acknowledging it:

h!!p://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/02/2480414.htm?section=justin
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20 million Chinese workers axed

By China correspondent Stephen McDonell

Posted 3 hours 40 minutes ago
Updated 3 hours 41 minutes ago

China's Government says 20 million Chinese rural workers have lost their jobs because of the global economic downturn.

A collapse in international demand for Chinese-made goods has seen thousands of factories close.

Chen Xiwen's office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group deals with the hundreds of millions of rural workers who travel to industrial cities every year seeking jobs.

Mr Chen says that this year more than 15 per cent of rural workers are unemployed.

The Government says it fears the rise in unemployment could lead to social instability.


 
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gf0012-aust       3/25/2009 4:08:02 PM
well, as I said some 2 months before this thread, our estimates of 20m were conservative and we predicted far higher.  Our initial estimates were at least double the 20m factoring in whats called the "hidden unemployed".  The esitimate then was that it was closer to 40-45m.  Based on the below article, worse case sceanrio could be in excess of 100m.

Guess which Govt will be demonstrating less tolerance to riots and separatist actions over the next 2 years...



China's unemployed migrant workers could top 20 million

Posted 7 hours 36 minutes ago

A new government survey in China suggests that the number of unemployed migrant workers in the country is far higher than the 20 million previously estimated.

The National Bureau of Statistics poll found of the 70 million workers who returned home for Chinese New Year in January, around 25 million were without work.

A further 70 million migrant workers did not return home for the holiday, raising the prospect that the total unemployed number is well above the 20 million figure reported in January.
China has around 140 million migrant workers who leave their rural homes to find work in the cities. 
 
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Softwar       3/25/2009 4:20:47 PM
I read a nice editorial which made the case that nations with a dependence on exports are likely to suffer more - to the point of depression.  The historical context was the US in the 1930s suffering a depression in part due to a major reliance on exports and adoption of trade barriers as a response to declining sales.
 
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