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Subject: China Begins Pumping Lots Of Oil
SYSOP    11/5/2012 5:37:30 AM
 
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WinsettZ       11/5/2012 7:03:50 PM
Curious logistically how they intend to get the oil out. There aren't many easy ways from Afghanistan to the PRC. Even if they do share road borders, what highway is there?
 
Amu Darya is a river that runs through the 'stans, north of Mazar-i-Sharif (forming the border between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan). 
 
Oil gets out through Pakistan, Iran, or through Tajikstan and then NE through the M41-> A372, over the border to the PRC and Kashgar. 
 
The more profitable use is to sell it locally. The Iranians could launder their oil through any PRC oil operation, which simply has to doctor the books to make production look higher than it really is, then put it on the Afghan or Pakistani market.
 
Trans-shipping "Chinese" oil through Iranian ports to sell elsewhere might also be technically exempt from sanctions, provided the oil is shipped on Chinese tankers? Again, another potential place to launder fuel. 
 
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Reactive       11/6/2012 11:32:58 AM
It's fairly hard to imagine that operation being of major value to China except as part of a larger (post-ISAF) aim to more or less repeat what they have achieved in Iraq - the Chinese have proven very adept at operating commercial operations in political environments that are toxic to the West. 
 
 
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WarNerd       11/7/2012 1:30:11 AM
Getting the oil out will be a problem, the contract includes building an oil refinery. But this is probably more of a ‘foot-in-the-door’ operation to establish a history in the country and leverage future contracts, so export potential is not important. On the other hand, given the area’s internal politics and general level of banditry, it will be interesting to see if they can keep the operation and expand production at the field.
 
Like most Chinese projects in the 3rd world this one is probably built by Chinese workers, staffed by Chinese personnel, and protected by Chinese troops. The Chinese are developing quite a record for successful projects, I wonder how … ?
 
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WinsettZ       11/7/2012 8:24:37 AM
Pay the Taliban to leave 'em alone, plus troops Just In Case.
 
The PRC is busy suppressing the Uighurs, but it's not a very popular cause..at least, not as long as Afghanistan has American and NATO forces. 
 
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Reactive       11/7/2012 9:23:37 AM
Getting the oil out will be a problem, the contract includes building an oil refinery. But this is probably more of a ‘foot-in-the-door’ operation to establish a history in the country and leverage future contracts, so export potential is not important. On the other hand, given the area’s internal politics and general level of banditry, it will be interesting to see if they can keep the operation and expand production at the field.
Exactly, this is what might be referred to as a "loss leader". 
 
Like most Chinese projects in the 3rd world this one is probably built by Chinese workers, staffed by Chinese personnel, and protected by Chinese troops. The Chinese are developing quite a record for successful projects, I wonder how … ?
 
The PRC has economic and political influence with Pakistan and Iran - they're building a network of client states and commodity-fiefdoms that are broadly aligned against US interests much like the USSR did. Given their (PRC) "interests" represent somewhat of a lifeline (on several fronts) to said states and regimes and their reputation for ruthlessness and belligerence combined with a tendency to import much of the necessary skilled manpower they can also operate with some degree of impunity; I would suspect the same would be true in Afghanistan as it was in Iraq where attacks on PRC operations will be 'miraculously' absent, read in to that what you will.  
 
 
 
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WinsettZ       11/8/2012 1:16:04 PM
The Chinese will be dealing with multiple ethnic groups. There are the Pakistanis, the Pashtuns of Pakistan/Afghanistan, the Tajiks of Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan. Keeping all three reasonably happy should be challenging. Being overtly in favor of Pakistan may tilt things off-kilter with the Tajiks, who the oil would presumably go through at some point. However, if the intent is to put the oil on the world market, it should go to Pakistan or Iran...
 
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wastral    China has   11/9/2012 8:44:33 PM
China already has several million workers in Uzbekistan, Kazakstan and Turkmenistan farming and sending said food back to China.  China is currently in the process of co-opting said countries.  Food and minerals.  All of these stan countries are essentially corrupt Hell holes without a functioning government after Russian Vacuum when they left.  Of these Kazakstan is the best.  All of these countries actively pursued relations with China and other bordering countries to be less reliant upon Russia and falling back under Russia's influence.  And in case you guys missed the obvious press reports, China is busy building the railroad networks in these countries and they oh by the way connect to China.  I have to wonder if they are all going to switch to standard guage railway(China's standard) instead of the Russian 1524mm.  None of these countries really had much in the way of a railroads to begin with, so its not exactly like they are replacing a huge amount of infrastructure here.  Moving the rails narrower is easy and the only hard part would be converting the cars/engines to the new gauge.  This also is fairly easy and straight forward.  I am sure either China, or Checkylslovokia will more than willing to do this minimal amount of work.  In case anyone forgets Kazakstan is the 7th??? largest country on earth.  LOTS of minerals.  None of which have been prospected.  Or very little anyways. 
 
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wastral    China has   11/9/2012 8:48:00 PM
OOps forgot the obvious.  China has a railroad line going into Pakistan which oh by the way is now being attached to Afganistan, and likewise a line to Iran. 
 
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sclayton    seems pretty smart   11/10/2012 10:31:14 PM
The US spends 12 years and  a Trillion+ $ in Afghanistan - and suffers 20,000 casualties - and will leave in 2014 with little lasting influence.  Chinese companies with a few million $ in support from their government come in as the US is leaving and set up business to stay for the long haul.  
 
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WarNerd       11/11/2012 5:23:50 AM
The US spends 12 years and  a Trillion+ $ in Afghanistan - and suffers 20,000 casualties - and will leave in 2014 with little lasting influence.  Chinese companies with a few million $ in support from their government come in as the US is leaving and set up business to stay for the long haul.  
Don’t bet on the long haul for the Chinese. Their ventures are based on exclusively using all Chinese personnel, including operations and security, that is why they are more cost effective. The locals will stand for it only so long (even if they only want to get relatives on the payroll for no-show jobs), and the government is sure to demand that the security jobs be turned over to Afghan security companies in short order.
 
The Afghan security companies are so bad nearly ALL the NGOs are pulling out for safety reasons. The Chinese will learn quickly that once the money is spent and the facilities built, the locals have you over a barrel.
 
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