Russia Sends A Message

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Subject: Russia Sends A Message
SYSOP 7/13/2012 5:23:54 AM

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vahitkanig 7/13/2012 2:43:08 PM

% 95 of Russia's shores are frozen useless seas.We can consider as land locked.

Relationship with &&04;ran and Syria vital for Russia. Otherwise except the Black Sea , Russia will have heavy burden on economic , military relationship with the world.

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trenchsol 7/14/2012 12:58:44 PM

I agree Vahitaking, Russia has been struggling for about century and the half to get in possession of a sea port which will grant them access to high seas throughout the whole year.

As an illustration, in year 1905 Russian warships had to sail from Baltic sea, all the way around Africa and Asia i order to reinforce their Far East squadron. Britain has banned passage through Suez Canal. As they finished the voyage, Japanese Imperial Feet delivered them a catastrophic defeat.

So, yes, Russia resembles landlocked countries in many aspects. I am not sure if it makes sense to spend money on large cruisers and battle cruisers, like former Kirov class. In case of any major conflict they will be either blocked in Russian ports or isolated, like some German ships at the beginning of Great War (SMS Scharnhorst, SMS Gneisenau, SMS Konigsberg, etc.).

Kurile Islands act as a barrier that blocks access to Russian island of Sakhalin. But, I think, the ports on the Island are also frozen during winter. The ice seems to be present at sea of Okhotsk from December to May.

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WarNerd 7/14/2012 1:57:31 PM

% 95 of Russia's shores are frozen useless seas.We can consider as land locked.

Relationship with Iran and Syria vital for Russia. Otherwise except the Black Sea , Russia will have heavy burden on economic , military relationship with the world.

Murmansk and Vladivostok are ice free year round. There is also the Black Sea ports and they can export by rail to Europe or the Baltic ports. Russia’s real problem is their habit of pissing off their neighbors instead of trying to make friends.

Syria and Iran give them nothing in terms of sea access because there are no other connections to Russia. It does not make sense.

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trenchsol 7/15/2012 1:25:48 PM

Whoever sails from Murmansk must get past Scandinavian region, and whoever sails from Vladivostok must get past Japan islands. Russia doesn't have allies in both regions.

Reaching Murmansk was deadly risk in WWII, when Germany controlled Norway.

Murmansk and Vladivostok are not exactly what Russia is looking for. Black Sea ports are behind Dardanelles straits.

It is, probably, the central issue of Russian geopolitics for last century and a half, no matter which regime was in power. It also looks like Britain was ready to undertake any effort to stop Russia from achieving that goal. And France was willing to follow. The politicians seem to be very much willing to trust Mackinder.

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WarNerd 7/15/2012 6:14:26 PM

Whoever sails from Murmansk must get past Scandinavian region, and whoever sails from Vladivostok must get past Japan islands. Russia doesn't have allies in both regions.

Reaching Murmansk was deadly risk in WWII, when Germany controlled Norway.

Murmansk and Vladivostok are not exactly what Russia is looking for. Black Sea ports are behind Dardanelles straits.

Gee … I wonder that if the Russians stopped making nasty noises and saber rattling at the Norwegians, Fins, and Turks, that , who knows, they might become friendly and it would no longer matter?

Fine. But tell me, how does a port in Syria or Iran, or maybe Venezuela solve that problem? Because that seems to be what is being implied.

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HeavyD 7/15/2012 7:18:23 PM

Is this why, even at the height of the Cold War, Russia had a piss-poor surface fleet?

Backfires and Bears with cruise missiles seem to be their best option for projecting military power, along with SSNs and ICBMs of course.

Oh, but I hear that the Philippines is looking for a muscular friend to keep them from getting picked on by China. Maybe Putin wants to make a play for Subic Bay...

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trenchsol 7/18/2012 12:26:53 PM

Warnerd, I think that Syrian port doesn't solve their problem, and that is what I've written in my post. I compared Russian surface vessels in foreign ports to some German ships at the beginning of Great War. Those ships were sunk by Royal Navy. Look, if you would, for battles of Coronel, battle of Falklands and Konigsberg Incident in east Africa, to see what I mean.

In case of major conflict Russian vessels in Syria and other foreign ports, would be isolated and unable to return home. Like Germans, they might try to cause as much damage as possible before going down.

Considering Syria, recent events look like beginning of an end of Al-Asad regime. The fate of Russian base there is uncertain. In some other parts of the world, treaties would be honored, but Middle East....

HeavyD, I am thinking the same. Russia seem to had plans to build mighty Navy, which could challenge anyone else, but the plans never fulfilled for variety of reasons. Large surface units seem to be the result of those plans.

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geogen 8/3/2012 11:28:35 PM

Japan could arguably toughen up her diplomatic and political response to such strategically provocative and purely insulting 'exercises'.

It would likely be more effective and cheaper than sending multiple sorties of old F-15s to intercept and escort 4x offensive-prepared supersonic bombers for a short duration of time.

Such offensive bomber flight 'messages' should simply not be acceptable and tolerated in the future... that should be the diplomatic message made public and immediately after such a blatant incident. Call in the ambassador to explain what exactly was that just about and if there are any future intentions for similar exercises to be conducted?

Perhaps some advanced notices could at least be made and a joint-flight of JASDF air-refueling assets + F-15J could be pre-planned at subsonic flight, along pre-planned route when near Japanese airspace? Otherwise, maybe the costs for any unplanned mass-intercept sorties required in the future could be billed to RF?

And lastly, perhaps regarding a couple of the southern most disputed Kurile islands, they could be better resolved in more cooperative spirit... via a negotiated and diplomatic process in the near-future, along similar lines and under the umbrella of other ASEAN + 3 disputes? And not through intimidation and offensive measures conducted by either side?

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