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Subject: USAAF 1945 VS USAF 1991. Who win? What would be your plan?
RedParadize    10/18/2009 5:24:39 PM
USAAF 1945 VS USAF 1991.
Or the alternative scenario:
USAAF 1945 VS USAF 20XX.

Scenario is Battle of Britain alike. The 2 side have all the pilot, Ammo and infrastructure needed to support all fighter available, AA gun and SAM not allowed! You can keep or remove production capability.

the alternative scenario:
USAF 20XX is the same. But its more about F-22 and F-35 but without the plane that F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II will replace. Fleet at their maximum in regard of current procurement Plan

Who win? What would be your plan?

I admit it. It is completely irrational. But it is so hilarious when you look at the number.

I have some Link that might be useful:

United States Army Air Forces 1945:
link
United States Air Force 1991:
link
 
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gf0012-aust       10/22/2009 2:55:40 PM

I blame Command and Conquer - and the whole 3D strategy battle gaming industry.

yep, somehow it's made "rushing" a legitimate warfighting concept which can apparently evolve because your enemy is asleep at the wheel. :) 




 
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RedParadize       10/22/2009 4:30:01 PM
Hey guys... it never have been serious you know. I know it is ridiculous, Look at the title of this topic :
"I admit it. It is completely irrational. But it is so hilarious when you look at the number.  "
 
Everyone know that current USAF his stronger. But if you think superior technology, Battlespace management and situational awareness is enough to win regardless of enemy number and conditions, thats is even more hilarious then this scenario is.
 
If you want to include the morale, look at WW2. Heavy lost didn't stop the allies on D-day or on east front. Allies didn't won because of superior technology and tactic, Allies have won mainly because of numeric superiority, mass production and courageous combatant. I am not sure we could support the same sacrifice today

I still think WW2 sides have its chance. It might be very small chance but still, if they take off before the modern side take them on the ground.... they might win.
 
PS: Don't blame Command and Conquer, Numeric superiority have been one of the key to victory since the apparition of life on earth!
 
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locutus    Numerical Superiority   10/22/2009 6:15:07 PM



 

If you want to include the morale, look at WW2. Heavy lost didn't stop the allies on D-day or on east front. Allies didn't won because of superior technology and tactic, Allies have won mainly because of numeric superiority, mass production and courageous combatant. I am not sure we could support the same sacrifice today






 


PS: Don't blame Command and Conquer, Numeric superiority have been one of the key to victory since the apparition of life on earth!
The Allies may have suffered heavy losses but they also inflicted heavier losses on the Germans.  How are they supposed to do that to the 1991 USAF?  Their weapons are vastly outranged.  They have to be WVR to kill while the modern USAF doesn't.
 
Numerical superiority isn't the key anymore.  We proved that in GW1 and GW2.
 
 
 
 
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StobieWan       10/22/2009 7:15:10 PM
Well, if 8 is all you can get, then can you hang a pod of Zunis on the centre wing pylon each side? Because that's back to your roots for the Zuni, large bomber formations.

Phoenix wise, I'd aim for one of the bottom of a box so the missile would coast straight through the formation above - it might pull the wing off one on the way down before detonating, and then there's that big warhead when it does go boom.

Can't bring myself to invite Genies as that's outside the time period really...

Ian


I think eight missiles is the max.  The centerline hardpoint on the F-15 isn't wired for A2A missiles, and I don't believe the center wing pylon (between the Sidewinder rails) is either.  Eight is pretty much it for the F-15.

 

Now the F-14, F-16 or F-18...different story.  The F-18 might be able to carry eight Sparrows and two Sidewinders (or ten AMRAAMs) and the F-16 the same; the F-14 could carry eight Phoenix or six Sparrows and two Sidewinders.  A Phoenix would be deadly against a close-packed B-17 formation; you might could get two with one shot. 

 

If you really want to get silly--throw in F-106s with nuclear-tipped Genies.

 



 
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StobieWan       10/22/2009 7:31:16 PM
Well. how did Germany, 1939 manage to conquer most of Europe, including France, a country with more tanks and aircraft in hand? Superior tactics and better use of communications perhaps? 

Agincourt ? How'd we pull that one off? Tiny English army facing the massed might of the French nobles, armed and armoured for war, on foreign soil? GW1 and 2? 
It's been explained how difficult it would be for the 1945 guys to fight, or even take off, how hard it would be for them to communicate and to make any meaningful headway. You're not listening, or paying any attention because you're probably just staring at the numbers and not seeing the units as things you have to funnel through points - they start off at dispersal areas and have to be fueled and armed before flight, then funneled through taxi ways and into runways. The other guys can watch all these preparations and interfere with them *at will*. Unless you start your scenario as a meeting engagement in clear weather at 1 mile distance with all units airborne, and no reserves, the 1945 guys are toast.

Ian



 Numeric superiority have been one of the key to victory since the apparition of life on earth!

 
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RedParadize       10/22/2009 8:05:43 PM
Did I left the impression that numeric advantage was the only one that should be considered? Cause don't remember have said anything like that. For me, numerical, technological, tactical advantage and other are all in balance.
 
Could I point out that in GW1 and GW2, coalition force had the numeric, tactical and technical superiority in pretty much every aspect of warfare?
 
About Nuke, ya... it does tend to flat every other advantage. Specialy the numeric one. A "fat man" and "little boy" on the WW2 sides would change the odds too.
 
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Hamilcar    GFaus.   10/22/2009 8:55:06 PM
"war is about battlespace management."
 
Yes it is.
 
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sentinel28a       10/23/2009 2:57:48 PM
Not if the B-29 doesn't live to drop it.  1945 nuclear technology was a freefall bomb directly over the target--and in Japan 1945, the advantage of the B-29 was that it flew above flak and most Japanese fighters, the few that were left with even fewer pilots competent to do more than kamikaze something.  Japan had no SAMs, and assumed that the single B-29 approaching Hiroshima was a weather aircraft.  The B-29 had to be pulled out of Korea because the MiG-15s were inflicting too many casualties.
 
The USAF of 1991 would not make that mistake (unless you're talking surprise attack--maybe the USAF thinks the approaching B-29 is Fifi out for a WWII commemoration?), and the retaliation would be devastating.  Nuclear-armed Tomahawks?  Good luck to the P-51 drivers, who could barely catch up to a V-1.
 
 
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locutus    Nukes   10/24/2009 12:20:30 AM
How much material did the US have in 1945 to make weapons?  IIRC, only enough to make three or four.  I would suspect any nuclear facilities would be among the first targets in an air campaign thus severly limiting USAF's 1945 ability to use such weapons.
 
Regarding Tomahawks, could the radar systems of that era detect cruise missiles.  I say no.
 
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sentinel28a       10/24/2009 2:19:54 AM
That's a good question, Locutus--I don't know if the radars in 1945 could pick up small objects like cruise missiles.  The V-1s had to get intercepted somehow, and I don't recall if radars were used.
 
 
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Das Kardinal       10/24/2009 4:42:46 AM
The scenario's an utter curbstomp, really.
 
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gf0012-aust       10/24/2009 4:51:55 AM

Hey guys... it never have been serious you know. I know it is ridiculous, Look at the title of this topic :

"I admit it. It is completely irrational. But it is so hilarious when you look at the number.  "

then why try and pretend that this is serious analysis when you've tried to recreate the circumstances a few times to generate an outcome?  It's hilarious - but not because it's genuine analysis

Everyone know that current USAF his stronger. But if you think superior technology, Battlespace management and situational awareness is enough to win regardless of enemy number and conditions, thats is even more hilarious then this scenario is.

rubbish.  you are now demonstrating complete ignorance about battle management.  a teenage fantasy does not equate to rigorous analysis.
If you are going to say nonsense like that then demonstrate your competency to the wider public by showing how all the critical vectors to dominate and win are met.  ie how can the USAAF of ww2 can achieve a majority of the 10 vectors required for victory.  This is a clinical analysis not some silly internet joust.  Surprise  attacks are not one of them.  rushing is not the other.  real vectors, not some silly computer game comparison are needed.
 
If you want to include the morale, look at WW2. Heavy lost didn't stop the allies on D-day or on east front. Allies didn't won because of superior technology and tactic, Allies have won mainly because of numeric superiority, mass production and courageous combatant. I am not sure we could support the same sacrifice today

no they didn't it was about battlespace management.  it was logistics, it was the capacity to generate production offshore and outside the reach of the enemy. it was about force compression, it was about sealane dominance so that the enemy could reach back and threaten the production bases.  It was because the allies had geographic dispersion and were able to apply compressive force on multiple disparate fronts and the enemy was stuck in a mackinder model.  mass alone was not the answer, and its cute by half to argue that mass was the critical vehicle when the reasons for mass dominance being achieved were numerous - none of which can be achieved by a WW2 force in a temporal flux fighting a modern force.  In fact your attempt to load the bases by taking out ADS (guns/missles) makes it worse for the USAAF.

I still think WW2 sides have its chance. It might be very small chance but still, if they take off before the modern side take them on the ground.... they might win.

 woulda coulda shoulda ignores the reality of a force that has superior reach and awareness can dominate the battlespace on their own terms.  thats why every modern military looked at the US results in GW1 and GW2 and frantically elected to modernise and rewrite their business of warfighting.  the two great non western powers of russia and china have said so outright in their own military journals.

it is about battlespace awareness, because that allows blue force to dictate the terms and circumstances of engagement.

if you're going to say to all and sundry that the USAAF can win, then demonstrate just one instance how WW2 doctrine can trump USAF doctrine in 1991.  No height advantage, no speed advantage, no ISR advantage, no capacity to pursue a bombing system that was lucky to get within 20% of CEP (saturation bombing was one of the most ineffective tactics of WW2) etc.....  One B1 bomber (let alone B52's) can make a pass that will kill the facilities with impunity.

in 1991 the USAF doctrine is about degradation before decapitation.  unless you want to change the game rules, then they aren't going to wait for red force to build up.  they will systematically kill their enemy as much as possible on the ground.  they have PGM's which they can deliver better than the US Postal Service, they have the capacity to mine the runways with cluster bombs, they have the capacity to kill facilities because they have dumb weapons which have a better than 20m CEP.  The USAAF even with the norden couldn't get numbers remotely close.  Again, even without E3's the USAF of 1991 can use fighter assets to concurrently manage and feed each other

you're blithely stating that a fundamentally GCI managed force can contest and turn a 1991 force where the USAF can see 450km radius (min) with their E3's and where even the tankers and trucks have better local ISR than the USAAF does even over its own territory.  That just beggars belief and I can only assume that you are being deliberately obtuse or you are completely ignorant of how even a 1991 military operated.


PS: Don't blame Command and Conquer, Numeric superiority have been one of the key to victory since the apparition of life on earth!
absolute nonsense.  only for those who have no knowledge of military history.  there are any number of battles where forces outnumbered beyond the expected 3:1 decimation ratio have won.

weight of numbers are only relevant oif the other principles of succcess are met or the other side makes catastrophic decisions.

by inference you're claiming subject matter expertise - demonstrate it rather than throwing out silly unsubstantiated commentary.  
 
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gf0012-aust       10/24/2009 4:56:31 AM

That's a good question, Locutus--I don't know if the radars in 1945 could pick up small objects like cruise missiles.  The V-1s had to get intercepted somehow, and I don't recall if radars were used.

 The RAF used to send up fighters in advance to run pre-emptive CAP.  They basically hoped that they could spot them coming in over the channel from a height advantage and then dump on top.  Plus they received alerts from the marquise etc....

it was pot luck the majority of the time


 
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RedParadize       10/24/2009 5:06:44 PM
gf0012-aust.
I am sure you can find some battle where a side was outnumbered by 1/87 and still won. but they are kind of epic and rare. On the other hand, there is plenty of example where 87/1 have been won.
 
To win a 1/87, decision making must be REALY tight. any mistake could be catastrophic. Fighting in numeric superiority is much more forgiving.
 
More you are outnumbered, more battlespace management will be difficult. so ya number still matter.
 
 
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gf0012-aust       10/24/2009 6:19:06 PM

gf0012-aust.

I am sure you can find some battle where a side was outnumbered by 1/87 and still won. but they are kind of epic and rare. On the other hand, there is plenty of example where 87/1 have been won.

again, you're looking at stats in their purity - its about management - its got stuff all to do with the absolute ratio.  you are fixating on the wrong issues.
 

To win a 1/87, decision making must be REALY tight. any mistake could be catastrophic. Fighting in numeric superiority is much more forgiving.

 rubbish.  its about the systemic degradation and decapitation of the other other forces ability to mount a coherent response,  as soon as you dislocate their capacity to mount a structured attack, as soon as you disrupt their ability to be persistent and effective then you immediately start to delaminate that force.

More you are outnumbered, more battlespace management will be difficult. so ya number still matter.

that is just unmitigated rubbish.  for the last time make the effort.  I'm not going to get into a discussion if all you can do is a "so there" or some flippant throw away commentary that is unsupportable.

again, if you can see first, if you can see more then you can dictate how you respond.  there are no surprse 1000 bomber raids because the the modern force can see them over 450km away and can see them turn and break off at least 450km in advance - at any time.  the modern force can engage in strategic bombing once the USAAF is only 20mins out from their home base, that force is committed and unable to respond.  they're outranged on sensors by 50:1, they're outranged on weapons by anything from 2:1 to 200:1, they csn only apply defensive box screens which means that they will expend all their ammunition trying to take a hail mary shot.  USAF doesn't even contain, have to use weapons to disrupt the formations.  they have a top down advantage where they can come out of the sun at will.  every fighter in the CAP role in 1991 has look down radar capability - so on top of what the E3's bring to the party, each aircraft can manage its fight.  In 1991 it means that the Ravens and Rivets can totally render the USAAF comms dumb.

again, a ground control managed fleet rendered blind deaf and dumb cannot hope to let alone defeat a fully autonomous comms sympathetic force from 1991.  they don't have anything in 1945 which allows them to exercise the initiative.

they're dead.  period.  a reactive force has no hope of effecting and shaping a victory

instead of blathering about woulda coulda shoulda reinforce your argument with actual circumstances and see how long it takes for anyone with a modicum of awareness about how it can be countered and neutralised.

as for the silliness of fatman and littleboy, if you want the USAF to bring in their own nukes its all over before day 1 sees the sun go down.  nobody lets an enemy bring their advantages to the table.  the keyed up force will anticipate and act first.  hence why your blithe dismissive comments about battlespace management being countered by sheer force of numbers demonstrates a complete lack of appreciation of what the USAF had in 1991 - let alone issues of force planning where one side completely dominates across all the critical vectors.



 
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