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Subject: JSF program report to Dutch Parliament : F-35 is a disaster, the total sales could be as low as 1875
SlowMan    10/6/2009 9:43:54 AM
A 136 page report to Dutch Parliament on the latest estimate of total F-35 sales as of September 2009. < link >

In other word, it is time to bail out on F-35 since now the expected average unit cost of F-35 is $99 million.

 
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Architect       10/21/2009 2:41:32 PM
What should be great to repalace F-16 it's a Gripen NG made by US and Swiden. Not that difficult considering that Gripen it's 40% american already.  Gripen NG it's the real succesor of F-16 as F-22 is the real succesor of the F-15.
 
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SlowMan       10/21/2009 3:07:25 PM
@ Architect

> What should be great to repalace F-16 it's a Gripen NG made by US and Swiden.

There is no room for small fighters like Gripen and F-16 anymore.

Russia and China pretty much cornered the low-budget market with their fighters such that even poor countries now operate Flankers and soon you will see $20 million a copy Chinese JF-17 flooding the market.

Second problem is that weapons themselves are getting bigger and heavier, such as 2.5 ~ 3 ton Yakhont missile derivatives required to be carried by fighters in Indian and Korean fighter competition. The minimum size of a fighter that could carry something like that is Typhoon, Super Hornet, and Mig-35, and they are just too much for F-16 Block 70 and Gripen NG.

> Not that difficult considering that Gripen it's 40% american already.

100% American sounds better than 40% American to USA, right? Why would Americans want to share its pie when they could have the whole thing?
 
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Architect       10/21/2009 3:37:02 PM
If so, why America it's interested in Braizilian Supertucanos?
 
Precisely I think there it's place for small  multirol airplanes, considering today you don't need a lot of boms to do the job, just one GPS bomb and small cross section airplane.
 
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SlowMan       10/21/2009 3:43:24 PM
@ Architect

> If so, why America it's interested in Braizilian Supertucanos?

To fight Afghan war. You don't need Super Tucano when trying to battle the Chinese or the Japanese. You need supersonic missiles capable of disabling/sinking enemy carrier with single shot or air-launched cruise missiles, and the planes to carry them.

> Precisely I think there it's place for small  multirol airplanes, considering today you don't need a lot of boms to do the job, just one GPS bomb and small cross section airplane.

The countries able to afford Gripen NG's price also have heavy missiles and bunker busters in their weapons inventory.
 
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Architect       10/21/2009 4:07:27 PM
Not all of them, look Ecuador, it's a banana republic interested in gripen NG...
If what you want it's an airplane to sunk carriers go for the Super Hornets.
My pont it's that F-35 it's not good enouht in nathing for the price. It's like the problem with the Nasa, they discovered that the Challenger was too ambitious and they are coming back to single rockets to carrie people to the space, after years of problems and accidents. Some times perfection it's the worst enemy of good.
 
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SlowMan       10/21/2009 4:22:37 PM
@ Architect

> look Ecuador, it's a banana republic interested in gripen NG

And how many Gripen NGs could Ecuador afford???

The reality is, Gripen NG offers less value for money than F-16 Block60 or 70, and the countries that could afford a hundred Gripen NGs also stock weapons that are just too heavy to be carried by Gripen NG or even F-16.

The market for small efficient fighter is dying, and the market itself become polarizing. Either you go for big twin engine jets, or shop Russian/Chinese if you don't have the money.
 
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Architect       10/21/2009 4:34:16 PM
India have already Su-27 and Gripen NG looks exactly as what they need to replace their old Migs, and 120 airplanes it's not an small number. I don't think that market it's died at all. Jus't americans are boicoting them.
 
 
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RedParadize       10/21/2009 5:18:32 PM
Only 25% of the F-22 raptor original procurement have been built due to cost and political reason. I hope the math don't apply to the F-35. cause that would mean only 625 F-35s. I cant imagine United States with less then 1500 fighter. It would be suicidal.
 
Even more for my country, Canada only have buy 139 F-18 in 1980. if procurement budget is similar it would mean what? +-25 F35? Thats was already stupid to think you could defend Canadian airspace with 139 fighter. With only 20 fighter its just like if we were inviting everyone to invade us!
 
If F-35 prise go sky high, the Super hornet would be good and safe alternative for Canada. On the other side, there is alternative that could be cheaper.
 
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Slim Pickinz       10/21/2009 6:42:58 PM

Only 25% of the F-22 raptor original procurement have been built due to cost and political reason. I hope the math don't apply to the F-35. cause that would mean only 625 F-35s. I cant imagine United States with less then 1500 fighter. It would be suicidal.

 

Even more for my country, Canada only have buy 139 F-18 in 1980. if procurement budget is similar it would mean what? +-25 F35? Thats was already stupid to think you could defend Canadian airspace with 139 fighter. With only 20 fighter its just like if we were inviting everyone to invade us!


 

If F-35 prise go sky high, the Super hornet would be good and safe alternative for Canada. On the other side, there is alternative that could be cheaper.


Currently the request is for 65 aircraft. Originally it was higher but the order has dropped quite a bit. I think we need as many as possible, hopefully they don't cut it again.
 
  link
 
 
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sentinel28a       10/21/2009 7:08:49 PM
I am really surprised not to see Canada buying Super Hornets, or a mix of Super Hornets and F-35s.  Those poor CF-18s are not getting any younger.  Canada always seems to leave fighters on the line long after they've reached obsolescence, such as with the CF-101.
 
I disagree (as usual) with SlowMan.  There is indeed a place for smaller fighters.  Not every country needs to carry gigantic missiles; the Gripen can still carry a very respectable load, and I'd hate to face it in a dogfight.  A Su-27 is gigantic and carries with it a gigantic RCS; the Gripen, less so.  Since a country like, say, Ecuador isn't likely to have to sink carriers or anything bigger than a destroyer, the Gripen would be an excellent choice if they can afford to do so.  There are other options besides "go big or go home."  Its comparatively short legs wouldn't make it a good choice for Japan or South Korea, for instance, but for smaller countries without a lot of land to cover, it's a good choice.  (With that in mind, I'm surprised South Africa bought it instead of the Typhoon, but cost probably had a lot to do with it.)
 
I can't see using the Gripen to replace or supplement the F-16, however.  There's nothing the Gripen can do that the F-16 can't, so it would just be a step sideways.  As much as I would like to see it happen, because I like the Gripen quite a bit and would love seeing it fly around.
 
 
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Architect       10/21/2009 8:47:12 PM
The reason why Canada don't need new airplanes yet it's becouse it's old FC-18 are in very goog shape. For those who speak french here is a very nice reportage
link
What it says it's that they look for micro fisures and they replace the components long time before the real problems appears.
Even so, they update the electronics and can match any SU-what ever.
The natural step should be the Superbugs for Canada and Rafales for Quebec.... vive le Quebec libre.....
 
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Architect       10/21/2009 8:48:10 PM
Here the link again
 
www.radio-canada.ca/emissions/decouverte/2008-2009/Reportage.asp?idDoc=66328
 
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usajoe1       10/21/2009 10:04:21 PM
I think Canada should wait for the F-35 and not make a stupid money wasting decesion like Australia with the SH's. The Hornets should soldier on for another decade until the F-35 replaces them.
 
PS: Who is going to invade Canada anyway? They have to go threw the US first. We are not going to stand by and let our little brothers up north get invaded by a foreign power.
 
Well on second thought, Obama might sell out Canada to Russia for nuclear reductions and sanctions on Iran.
 
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StevoJH       10/21/2009 10:23:06 PM

I think Canada should wait for the F-35 and not make a stupid money wasting decesion like Australia with the SH's. The Hornets should soldier on for another decade until the F-35 replaces them.

Our F-111's were costing an insane amount to keep in the air, something like $150 Million/year for ~20 aircraft. The F-18F's are going to cost $6 billion over 13 years including parts, fuel, ordinance, etc. While that is 460 Million per year, it includes the purchase costs of the fighters, and upgrades to the infrastructure in place to support F-111 so that it can support F-18F (so much of it is a single upfront cost, actual operational costs will be much lower).
 
Plus the F-18F is a much more viable strike platform then the 35-40 year old F-111's. On top of that, the cost of keeping the F-111's in service was only going to increase. As the F-111's would have to be replaced first, more CBR's would have to be carried out on Hornets. Now however, The Hornets can be replaced first and Super Hornest last, meaning that less CBR's need to be carried out on the Hornet fleet.
 
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Architect       10/22/2009 1:21:45 PM
What Canada needs are Nukes.
 
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