JSF program report to Dutch Parliament : F-35 is a disaster, the total sales could be as low as 1875

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 10:24:18 AM

I am only quoting on the market condition of only the big customers.

5.1.9.14 Saudi Arabia

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
Saudi Arabia was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. Saudi Arabia cannot be considered as a near term JSF opportunity after the choice of the Eurofighter to replace the Tornado, the planned upgrade of Boeing F-15S and the replacement of F-15C/D as announced by DodBuzz early September 2009.
Only in the long term (late 2020s) Saudi Arabia may be a potential F-35 customer to replace the 70 F-15S, but not without competition with other options. However there may be complications in the area of technology transfer, a sensitive question in relation to the specific US-Israeli relationship. [#51.47]

5.1.9.17 United Arab Emirates

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
United Arab Emirates was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. However, a deal with France to buy Dassault Rafales seems to be quite certain, the remaining 63 Mirage 2000 to be replaced by 63 Rafales from 2012 on a 1-to-1 basis. Contracting said to be under way and to be completed in 2009-2010 [#51.73]. A memory of understanding, signed in October 2008, for use of a permanent French presence underlines the close relationship between both countries [#51.77].
In the summer of 2009 the news was announced that a deal for 60 Rafales would be be finalized end of 2009 [#51.106].
When a deal with France to buy the Rafale will materialise, the Unit Arab Emirates cannot be considered as a JSF opportunity, because the other part of the fighter fleet are young F-16 Block 60 aircraft, with a replacement date in the late 2030s.

5.1.10.11 India

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
On 17-nov-2004 Vice Chief of Air Staff Air Marshall Sumil Kamar stated that in the MRCA(Multi Role Combat Aircraft) requirement there would be no restrictions to companies supplying new fighters to replace the delayed Indian developed LCA Tejas. Mirage 2000, Gripen and MiG-29, also American contenders entered the MRCA competition, including F-16, F/A-18 Super Hornet. The JSF Program Office noticed the opportunities and started pushing the F-35 as an option as well.
However important conditions of India are (1) licence production by HAL in India; (2) technology transfer and access to the software; (3) continuous supply of spare parts even if there were sanctions; (4) compensation orders to be placed in India. The global supply chain and complex production and protected technology of the F-35 is conflicting with the possibility of own production in India. This is one of the reasons there is a low probability of an Indian buy of the F-35 (in each case in short term). This was noted already in 2006 by India?s Chief Air Marshal [#51.59] ?In February 2006, India?s Chief Air Marshal recently specificaly noted that the JSF was not in their plans for this buy, a likelihood that DID?s analysis had noted earlier due to probable lack of availability before 2015. The August 2007 MRCA RFP confirmed this.?
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?The F-35?s killer weakness was timing. Its advanced systems, established industrial partnership structure and program procurement policies could also make it nearly impossible to meet India?s industrial offset rules.?.
India was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. The 29th of July 2007 Royce Caplinger, the managing director of Lockheed Martin India lindicated in on India?s CNN-IBN news channel: ?Beyond the (tender) that?s on the horizon, the F-35 too could play a role, sometime in the future.? To sweeten the deal he indicated the JSF could come at the same price as the F-16, realising that in the near term the JSF would have no chance in India. In the long term there are other reasons why the JSF possibilities are low in India. India is developing their own aviation industry. The LCA Tejas is delayed, but investments in own or joint aviation projects have a high priority and about 10-15 years the situation may be changed much. A Russian-Indian memory of understanding between Sukhoi and HAL to develop a new 5th generation fighter (Sukhoi-HAL FGFA Stealth Fighter, #51.109] to be in service in 2015-2017 also conflicts with the procurement of another 5th generation fighter.
The already defined global supply chain of the F-35, with huge investments in SDD by several partner countries is another obstacle on the way to joint industrial cooperation or compensation orders. Further the

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french stratege 10/6/2009 12:11:15 PM

More and more countries are fed up with increasing dependancies to USA as a provider and threat of embargo or refusal to some weapons sales or systems in case of a foreign policy disagreement with USA.
Countries which can afford it, want more and more access to technology and systems to maintain them themselves.

F35 and F22 policies were an eye opener for many countries.

For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 12:21:41 PM

@ french stratege

> For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

Rafale's chances are in Brazil, UAE, and Kuwait.

Rafale doesn't stand a chance in India, Japan, and Korea. These countries have to consider hundreds of Chinese flankers covering up the sky in their airforce fighter fleet plans, and Rafale isn't good enough to establish a dominance over waves of incoming Chinese flankers. Ditto for F-35 too.

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sentinel28a 10/6/2009 3:18:04 PM

Because the only reason the Rafale isn't equipping the world's air forces is because of an American conspiracy, eh, FS?

1,875 aircraft is pretty damn good, SlowMan. I don't know that the F-16 original buy was much more than that. But we should bail out on it? What do propose we replace it with? FS will say "RAFALES OF COURSE!", but since you're not French, I expect a different answer.

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 3:24:15 PM

@ sentinel28a

> 1,875 aircraft is pretty damn good, SlowMan. I don't know that the F-16 original buy was much more than that.

F-16 sold about 4,400 worldwide.

> But we should bail out on it? What do propose we replace it with?

No, just buy less F-35 and more F-22. F-35 is not a substitute for F-22.

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usajoe1 FS 10/6/2009 7:58:54 PM

F35 and F22 policies were an eye opener for many countries.

For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

The F-35 is a lock for Britain, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, with Finland and the Spanish Navy probalbly joining too, for a total of 800/900 air craft. The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500. That almost covers all the first rate airforces that can afford this type of fighter. The rest; Germany Russia, China, and India are good with their Sukhois, Typhoons and Migs. Japan is most likely going to go with the Typhoon. E. European countries like Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria are going to go with second hand fighters like the F-16 or if they want to throw around some cash; the Gripen. The Rafale has a chance in Brazil, UAE and Kuwait and that is pretty much it.

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sentinel28a 10/6/2009 9:42:37 PM

Yes, the F-16 sold 4400 worldwide--over the course of 30 years. The first F-35 hasn't even entered squadron service yet.

The F-22 is even more expensive than the F-35, and it's designed as a fighter. The only reason it can drop bombs is because Congress insists on it. I agree that the F-35 is no substitute for the F-22 as a pure fighter, but we're going to need a multirole fighter to replace the F-16 someday. Cancelling the F-35 means no replacement.

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SlowMan 10/7/2009 9:59:06 AM

@ usajoe1

> The F-35 is a lock for Britain, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, with Finland and the Spanish Navy probalbly joining too, for a total of 800/900 air craft.

The report says 706 max, 545 min for JSF partner nations as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

> The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500.

The report says 1440 max, 1170 min for US forces as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

@ sentinel28a

> Yes, the F-16 sold 4400 worldwide--over the course of 30 years.

1,875 is a life time sales estimate figure.

> The F-22 is even more expensive than the F-35

Only 50% more at this point, which makes it a far better deal than F-35.

> but we're going to need a multirole fighter to replace the F-16 someday. Cancelling the F-35 means no replacement.

Build more F-16s and Super Hornets. Problem solved.

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sentinel28a 10/7/2009 3:22:23 PM

Great idea! Let's build more P-51s and F-86s while we're at it. No point in ever advancing fighter technology...

I'm sure when General Dynamics started flying prototype F-16s that they just knew they would sell over 4000 of them. Those guys were awesome. They could even predict that they would be selling F-16s to Poland back in 1976. Somehow they saw the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Lockheed Martin doesn't know how many F-35s will eventually be sold. They can take a guess based on current orders. What if Japan joins in? Or India? Or South Korea? Hell, maybe Argentina will find El Dorado somewhere and start buying up F-35s to replace their A-4s.

Nobody knows, SlowMan...least of all you.

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SlowMan 10/7/2009 3:58:41 PM

@ sentinel28a

> Great idea! Let's build more P-51s and F-86s while we're at it.

Those don't have running production lines.

> No point in ever advancing fighter technology...

F-16 Block 70 and Super Hornet Block 3 have their own shares of advanced technology; their radar and avonics are equal to what F-35 would have.

> Lockheed Martin doesn't know how many F-35s will eventually be sold.

Not that many if you take a look at its skyrocketing cost and the strict US control over access to its tech, even for maintenance. This is why Lockheed Martin is keeping F-16 alive and is even offering to do a completely overhauled version with Korean government's money as KFX, figuring that F-35 would not sell as many as F-16 did and they need a modern fighter falling into $50~60 million price range.

> Nobody knows, SlowMan...least of all you.

I am simply going by the numbers in the report submitted to Dutch Parliament.

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