JSF program report to Dutch Parliament : F-35 is a disaster, the total sales could be as low as 1875

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 10:24:18 AM

I am only quoting on the market condition of only the big customers.

5.1.9.14 Saudi Arabia

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
Saudi Arabia was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. Saudi Arabia cannot be considered as a near term JSF opportunity after the choice of the Eurofighter to replace the Tornado, the planned upgrade of Boeing F-15S and the replacement of F-15C/D as announced by DodBuzz early September 2009.
Only in the long term (late 2020s) Saudi Arabia may be a potential F-35 customer to replace the 70 F-15S, but not without competition with other options. However there may be complications in the area of technology transfer, a sensitive question in relation to the specific US-Israeli relationship. [#51.47]

5.1.9.17 United Arab Emirates

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
United Arab Emirates was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. However, a deal with France to buy Dassault Rafales seems to be quite certain, the remaining 63 Mirage 2000 to be replaced by 63 Rafales from 2012 on a 1-to-1 basis. Contracting said to be under way and to be completed in 2009-2010 [#51.73]. A memory of understanding, signed in October 2008, for use of a permanent French presence underlines the close relationship between both countries [#51.77].
In the summer of 2009 the news was announced that a deal for 60 Rafales would be be finalized end of 2009 [#51.106].
When a deal with France to buy the Rafale will materialise, the Unit Arab Emirates cannot be considered as a JSF opportunity, because the other part of the fighter fleet are young F-16 Block 60 aircraft, with a replacement date in the late 2030s.

5.1.10.11 India

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
On 17-nov-2004 Vice Chief of Air Staff Air Marshall Sumil Kamar stated that in the MRCA(Multi Role Combat Aircraft) requirement there would be no restrictions to companies supplying new fighters to replace the delayed Indian developed LCA Tejas. Mirage 2000, Gripen and MiG-29, also American contenders entered the MRCA competition, including F-16, F/A-18 Super Hornet. The JSF Program Office noticed the opportunities and started pushing the F-35 as an option as well.
However important conditions of India are (1) licence production by HAL in India; (2) technology transfer and access to the software; (3) continuous supply of spare parts even if there were sanctions; (4) compensation orders to be placed in India. The global supply chain and complex production and protected technology of the F-35 is conflicting with the possibility of own production in India. This is one of the reasons there is a low probability of an Indian buy of the F-35 (in each case in short term). This was noted already in 2006 by India?s Chief Air Marshal [#51.59] ?In February 2006, India?s Chief Air Marshal recently specificaly noted that the JSF was not in their plans for this buy, a likelihood that DID?s analysis had noted earlier due to probable lack of availability before 2015. The August 2007 MRCA RFP confirmed this.?
???..
?The F-35?s killer weakness was timing. Its advanced systems, established industrial partnership structure and program procurement policies could also make it nearly impossible to meet India?s industrial offset rules.?.
India was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. The 29th of July 2007 Royce Caplinger, the managing director of Lockheed Martin India lindicated in on India?s CNN-IBN news channel: ?Beyond the (tender) that?s on the horizon, the F-35 too could play a role, sometime in the future.? To sweeten the deal he indicated the JSF could come at the same price as the F-16, realising that in the near term the JSF would have no chance in India. In the long term there are other reasons why the JSF possibilities are low in India. India is developing their own aviation industry. The LCA Tejas is delayed, but investments in own or joint aviation projects have a high priority and about 10-15 years the situation may be changed much. A Russian-Indian memory of understanding between Sukhoi and HAL to develop a new 5th generation fighter (Sukhoi-HAL FGFA Stealth Fighter, #51.109] to be in service in 2015-2017 also conflicts with the procurement of another 5th generation fighter.
The already defined global supply chain of the F-35, with huge investments in SDD by several partner countries is another obstacle on the way to joint industrial cooperation or compensation orders. Further the Indian Airforce wants be predominantly using weapons of Indian origin such as Astra, a Beyond Visual Range missile, this can be expected an obstacle when it has to be integrated in the F-35 airframe and software.

5.1.10.13 Japan

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
An official Japanese requirement in the F-X program of some 90-100 aircraft exists to replace the F-4EJ Phantoms. Since 2004 the Japanese Defense Agency has received briefings on the F-35 program. One requirement, early delivery around 2011, might be difficult in the delayed F-35 program [#51.66].
Japan was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. The presentation mentioned also a start of the acquisition process in 2008 with Letter of Acceptance procedure starting Summer 2009 and contract finalising early 2010. First F-35As would be delivered for evaluation in early 2012 with a first operational deliveries early 2014 [#51.14]. Still in 2008 Lockheed?s Mr. Standridge said: ?The Japanese are now deciding on an RFP and sitting back and watching the F-35 program to gain confidence in the plane, it must be considered by the Japanese, it's just a matter of when.'' [#51.89]. But since not too much progress has been made. Repeatedly Japan has expressed to be interested in the F-22 Raptor, and has told the USA, that when the USA won?t deliver F-22s, Japan will consider Eurofighter Typhoons [#51.35] or Boeing F-15SE Silent Eagles [#51.31]. The new government of Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan, elected in August 2009, may have a more US-independent governance.
In the long term the steady development of an own high-tech Japanese aviation and space technology may be a complicating factor. Japan is manufacturing an own derivative of the F-16, the Mitsubishi F-2 and has started developing their own stealth fighter, partly with technical assistance of European companies, the ATD-X design [#51.70]. So, after the F-4E Phantom replacement opportunity, currently in process, new opportunities for the F-35 in Japan will be very uncertain.

5.1.10.25 South Korea

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
South Korea was identified by Lockheed Martin officials as one of the possible buyers in presentations to the industry in 2007 [#51.8]. The presentation mentioned also a start of the acquisition process in 2012 with Letter of Acceptance procedure in 2013 and contract finalising early 2014. First F-35As would be delivered in 2016 [#51.14]. However, the facts show this is commercial wishful thinking.
There would be several opportunities for the F-35: replacement of the F-5E, F-4D and early F-16s. Recent three developments have minimized the F-35 short term opportunities. First development is in the process of the replacement of the F-5E and some of the F-4Ds there is a local rival, the own Korean KAI FA50. KAI is developing the FA-50 light attack plane (version of the existing T50), with early 2009 the announcement of a first potential order of 60 aircraft and production start in 2013; with an option for 90 more; to replace the existing A37, Northrop F-5E Tiger II and F-4D Phantom II ground attack aircraft. KAI is working in cooperation with Elbit (Israël).
Second development is the successful introduction of the Boeing F-15 Eagle in South Korea. After the initial procurement (signed in april 2002) of 40 Boeing F-15Ks (F-X Stage I), in 2008 a new contract has been signed to procure another 21 Boeing F-15Ks (F-X Stage II). With a strong desire to buy more F-15 Eagles for F-X Stage III. The introduction in the market of the Boeing F-15SE (stealthy) Silent Eagle is a further attack at the market possibilities of the F-35 JSF (March 2009) [#51.31, #51.44]. South Korea has a requirement for 60 fighters in the F-X Stage III program after 2012, but funding is a bottleneck.
Third development is that South Korea wants to develop their own defense and aviation industry with the development of an own fighter (Project KFX). Last July 2009 the signing of a defense trade MoU between Sweden and South Korea with Saab as a possible development partner in the development is one of the latest developments. In September 2009 the government announced to focus in the ?KFX? program on a 4,5 generation fighter[#51.114]. Official report recommend ?As many as 250 KFXs can be built to push down the unit cost. The first 120 aircraft would replace the country?s McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms and Northrop F-5 Tigers. A further 130 KFXs would replace Lockheed Martin F-16C and D Block 52s. If KFX costs $41 million a copy, South Korea might export 300-500 to countries such as Indonesia and Turkey, it suggests. Indonesia signed a letter of intent with South Korea to participate in the KFX study last March.? [#51.114].
The active marketing of the KAI T-50/FA50 at the world market is showing the Korean longterm intentions. A stronger own industry will be a possible restriction to the long term opportunities of the F-35 in South Korea, when (in 2020-2025) there will be a need to replace the F-16s.

5.1.11.5 Brazil

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter
In the past F-X campaign Lockheed Martin had been planning to offer the F-35, but in the later F-X2 campaign Lockheed Martin offered a special tailored F-16BR version instead.
Reason not to offer the F-35 any longer may be the delay in the F-35 program, which makes a 2014 delivery date quite impossible, but also Brazil requires transfer of all technology needed to maintain the aircraft as part of any F-X2 contract [#51.75, p.20]. Another factor is the requirement for important industrial involvement of the Brazilian industry. After completion of the F-X2 fleet renewal there will be no additional requirement for decades, so there is no F-35 market in Brazil any longer.

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french stratege 10/6/2009 12:11:15 PM

More and more countries are fed up with increasing dependancies to USA as a provider and threat of embargo or refusal to some weapons sales or systems in case of a foreign policy disagreement with USA.
Countries which can afford it, want more and more access to technology and systems to maintain them themselves.

F35 and F22 policies were an eye opener for many countries.

For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 12:21:41 PM

@ french stratege

> For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

Rafale's chances are in Brazil, UAE, and Kuwait.

Rafale doesn't stand a chance in India, Japan, and Korea. These countries have to consider hundreds of Chinese flankers covering up the sky in their airforce fighter fleet plans, and Rafale isn't good enough to establish a dominance over waves of incoming Chinese flankers. Ditto for F-35 too.

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sentinel28a 10/6/2009 3:18:04 PM

Because the only reason the Rafale isn't equipping the world's air forces is because of an American conspiracy, eh, FS?

1,875 aircraft is pretty damn good, SlowMan. I don't know that the F-16 original buy was much more than that. But we should bail out on it? What do propose we replace it with? FS will say "RAFALES OF COURSE!", but since you're not French, I expect a different answer.

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SlowMan 10/6/2009 3:24:15 PM

@ sentinel28a

> 1,875 aircraft is pretty damn good, SlowMan. I don't know that the F-16 original buy was much more than that.

F-16 sold about 4,400 worldwide.

> But we should bail out on it? What do propose we replace it with?

No, just buy less F-35 and more F-22. F-35 is not a substitute for F-22.

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usajoe1 FS 10/6/2009 7:58:54 PM

F35 and F22 policies were an eye opener for many countries.

For French it is now a great opportunity since Rafale is maturing and improvment roadmap is funded.

The F-35 is a lock for Britain, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, with Finland and the Spanish Navy probalbly joining too, for a total of 800/900 air craft. The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500. That almost covers all the first rate airforces that can afford this type of fighter. The rest; Germany Russia, China, and India are good with their Sukhois, Typhoons and Migs. Japan is most likely going to go with the Typhoon. E. European countries like Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria are going to go with second hand fighters like the F-16 or if they want to throw around some cash; the Gripen. The Rafale has a chance in Brazil, UAE and Kuwait and that is pretty much it.

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sentinel28a 10/6/2009 9:42:37 PM

Yes, the F-16 sold 4400 worldwide--over the course of 30 years. The first F-35 hasn't even entered squadron service yet.

The F-22 is even more expensive than the F-35, and it's designed as a fighter. The only reason it can drop bombs is because Congress insists on it. I agree that the F-35 is no substitute for the F-22 as a pure fighter, but we're going to need a multirole fighter to replace the F-16 someday. Cancelling the F-35 means no replacement.

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SlowMan 10/7/2009 9:59:06 AM

@ usajoe1

> The F-35 is a lock for Britain, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, with Finland and the Spanish Navy probalbly joining too, for a total of 800/900 air craft.

The report says 706 max, 545 min for JSF partner nations as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

> The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500.

The report says 1440 max, 1170 min for US forces as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

@ sentinel28a

> Yes, the F-16 sold 4400 worldwide--over the course of 30 years.

1,875 is a life time sales estimate figure.

> The F-22 is even more expensive than the F-35

Only 50% more at this point, which makes it a far better deal than F-35.

> but we're going to need a multirole fighter to replace the F-16 someday. Cancelling the F-35 means no replacement.

Build more F-16s and Super Hornets. Problem solved.

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sentinel28a 10/7/2009 3:22:23 PM

Great idea! Let's build more P-51s and F-86s while we're at it. No point in ever advancing fighter technology...

I'm sure when General Dynamics started flying prototype F-16s that they just knew they would sell over 4000 of them. Those guys were awesome. They could even predict that they would be selling F-16s to Poland back in 1976. Somehow they saw the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Lockheed Martin doesn't know how many F-35s will eventually be sold. They can take a guess based on current orders. What if Japan joins in? Or India? Or South Korea? Hell, maybe Argentina will find El Dorado somewhere and start buying up F-35s to replace their A-4s.

Nobody knows, SlowMan...least of all you.

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SlowMan 10/7/2009 3:58:41 PM

@ sentinel28a

> Great idea! Let's build more P-51s and F-86s while we're at it.

Those don't have running production lines.

> No point in ever advancing fighter technology...

F-16 Block 70 and Super Hornet Block 3 have their own shares of advanced technology; their radar and avonics are equal to what F-35 would have.

> Lockheed Martin doesn't know how many F-35s will eventually be sold.

Not that many if you take a look at its skyrocketing cost and the strict US control over access to its tech, even for maintenance. This is why Lockheed Martin is keeping F-16 alive and is even offering to do a completely overhauled version with Korean government's money as KFX, figuring that F-35 would not sell as many as F-16 did and they need a modern fighter falling into $50~60 million price range.

> Nobody knows, SlowMan...least of all you.

I am simply going by the numbers in the report submitted to Dutch Parliament.

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sentinel28a 10/7/2009 4:17:29 PM

The F-16 and F-18E/F are based on designs over 30 years old. Sooner or later we have to move forward from that. LM is keeping the F-16 line going because they realize that not everyone can afford the F-35, or may not be able to buy it. They're not going to cancel the F-35 entirely because they have this thing they worry about called "profit margin" and this other thing called "brains."

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warpig 10/7/2009 4:52:29 PM

> The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500.

The report says 1440 max, 1170 min for US forces as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

So what? It also arrived at that magic number for the most part (i.e., for at least the F-35A portion), not by reflecting any change in the programmed buy, but by assuming the same number of dollars available overall as for when the only announced procurement numbers were first announced years ago, but then using that same number of dollars to buy aircraft at their currently estimated prices. That's no more or less valid than to guess that the number might be any otehr arbitrary number, either higher or lower than 1440 "max" and 1170 "min". Meanwhile, the actual number scheduled to be bought remains the same, at least for the F-35A and thus the report's number is no more than a guess without any actual facts to support it.

Now in reality it may very well turn out that we buy fewer F-35A after all, which wouldn't bother me because between the F-22 and it, we'll have the most sh!t-hot fighter force in the world and there's no particular reason to believe we really need so many, anyway. Unlike the crap that some people spew around here, the truth is that if we actually committed to winning, we could mop the Taiwan Strait and the Yellow Sea with the PLAAF/PLANAF and throw back any Chinese invasion of Taiwan or any Japanese islands--including striking mainland target sets if considered necessary to the war effort and approved by the Administration--and do all of that with an extremely lop-sided loss rate in the air. The biggest cause of casualties to us while trying to achieve that would be far more likely to be from Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles and some torpedoes against our bases/ships, rather than from the Chinese IADS.

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FJV What no-one notices 10/7/2009 4:53:55 PM

"http://new.isoshop.com/dae/dae/articles/communiques/JSF_MARKETANALYSIS_JOBO.pdf"

Johan Boeder started publishing about aviation in 1977 as a freelance author at the Dutch newspaper Reformatorisch Dagblad. Later he was involved in publications and reports about the fatal crash of a Belgian C130 Hercules at Eindhoven airport (1996). His publications (june 1997) were helpfull to support the Dutch Hercules Ramp Society in triggering the Dutch parliament to give renewed attention to what caused this crash. Publications about this subject in which he was involved were published in Telegraaf (13 februari 1998) and
Reformatorisch Dagblad (21 juni 1997).

Since November 2007 he published several times about the Joint Strike Fighter project, the first titled ?JSF Hit by serious design problems? (Defense Aerospace, nov.2007 and Defense Industry Daily USA, dec.2007) and he is the author of several Submissions about
the JSF to the Dutch Parliament. In February 2008 he published ?When Sukhoi meets JSF in 2020? in Norwegian language in the Norwegian military magazine Officesbladet. In May 2008 he was involved in a briefing about the JSF status to the members of the Dutch
Parliament ?Train to Venice. JSF, dream of drama??. In April 2009 he was questioned in the parliamentary JSF hearing of the Dutch Parliament?s Defence Committee amongst several national and international JSF experts. In April 2009 he published an early version of this Market Analysis for members of the Dutch parliament. Also, a separate report, ?Exploitation cost JSF, more than doubled since
2002?, April 2009, 44 pages, for the Dutch Parliament, Standing Committee of Defence is available.

Turns out this guy is a journalist that prepares reports to lobby with the Dutch govt.

This is not an official report made by the Dutch govt.

Doesn't mean the report is wrong, but at least then you should know where the author "is coming from".

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warpig 10/7/2009 5:14:43 PM

Tank you, FJV. Honestly, I was wondering if this was another example like Kopp/APA or any of a thousand "think tanks" in America fulfilling their true role of lobbyists, trying to influence rather than only inform.

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usajoe1 10/7/2009 5:53:38 PM

@ usajoe1

> The F-35 is a lock for Britain, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Israel, Singapore, with Finland and the Spanish Navy probalbly joining too, for a total of 800/900 air craft.

The report says 706 max, 545 min for JSF partner nations as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

That was a rough estimate, with Spain, Finland, Israel and Singapore being taken into account as well, you stupid kid. No one knows the final numbers yet because they are not available.

> The USAF/Navy and MC with more than 2500.

The report says 1440 max, 1170 min for US forces as of September 2009. Your numbers are outdated.

The number is actually 1,763 but the US has to build more to replace the 3100+ F-16's, F/A18's Harriers. A-10's and F-15C/D''s after 2020. If we replace 3100+ fighters with 1,763 F-35's and 187 Raptors, and the 600+ F-15E's and SH's, it is going to cut our fighter force by almst 20%. No matter how much better the new aircraft are, it still can't be at two places at once. This will leave cost us big time if we had to fight a country like China after 2020. We have to either buy more SH or F-35's.

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