China's first naval fighter J-15 made its first flight last month.

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SlowMan 9/21/2009 12:14:19 PM

@ sentinel28a

> The PLAN is apparently putting the Varyag back into service, since she's in dry dock, but they didn't move her there until April of this year, and she's still there waiting for new engines.

No need to refit Varyag, since China has a massive shipbuilding industry and it's far cheaper and simpler to start over from scratch than try to refit two decade old Varyag. Beside it is the first of three approved carriers.

> As far as the new carriers go, China hasn't started constructing them yet

Well, UPI says it will begin this year < link >, whereas Chinese papers have said construction "has begun" back in June.

> Either way, a Varyag up against a US carrier battlegroup is a pretty ugly mismatch for the Varyag.

China's Varyag copies aren't for taking on US carrier groups, it is to put pressure against India and Japan. 22DDH(the carrier pretending to be some destroyer) project is being pushed forward to meet Chinese carrier threats.

China's carrier group actually helps to stabilize the region, since Chinese sub fleet is considered far more dangerous than the carrier fleet, which is going to be money sucking black hole even for the Chinese and that money would have been better spent on building more submarines and heavy missile destroyers.

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sentinel28a 9/21/2009 5:37:55 PM

Slow, you just contradicted yourself. You said "there's no need for the PLAN to refit Varyag," then you go on to say that she's the first of three planned carriers. They're going to have to refit her if she'll ever put to sea again; she was towed to China. From all reports, the refit's already started.

I honestly don't see a use for these carriers. To threaten India, they'd have to sail through the straits of Indonesia, which could be easily closed by Indian submarines (or Indonesia, which isn't exactly buddy buddy with China). Assuming they get through, they'd have to operate in the Indian Ocean, far away from any supply base (except Pakistan), in seas and air dominated by the Indian Air Force. The Chinese do not yet have the kind of layered defense a US battlegroup has, and the air wing of these carriers is a third the size of a US carrier. True, all India has are two Harrier carriers with similar air wings, but land-based air could devastate a Chinese carrier operating in the Bay of Bengal.

Japan is a similar situation. To get close enough to be effective (let's say, in operations around the Ryukyus), that brings them into range of land-based air of the JASDF/JMSDF. War with Japan likely means war with the US as well, so that puts them into a situation where those Chinese carriers would indeed be facing American ones, at a severe disadvantage. Carriers only do well against land-based air units when the carriers themselves have enough firepower to fend them off. The Chinese designs would not.

The only use I can foresee for these carriers is as a covering force for limited landings--say, a small island like Quemoy or some of the southern Ryukyus, or operations in the South China Sea, where Vietnam's old machines would be about as effective against Chinese carriers as they were against US carriers during the war. Either that, or it's just prestige, like battleships used to be in the day.

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Bluewings12 9/21/2009 5:48:25 PM

""they'd have to operate in the Indian Ocean, far away from any supply base (except Pakistan)""

There , they would have to deal with the French Navy . A fifth of our Navy is riding the waves 24/7 over there ...

Cheers .

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SlowMan 9/21/2009 9:27:32 PM

@ sentinel28a

> Slow, you just contradicted yourself. You said "there's no need for the PLAN to refit Varyag," then you go on to say that she's the first of three planned carriers.

Not Varyag itself, but the copy of Varyag.

> I honestly don't see a use for these carriers.

Bragging rights and exertion of pressure to its neighbors.

> To threaten India, they'd have to sail through the straits of Indonesia, which could be easily closed by Indian submarines

There would be Chinese escort nuclear subs to each carrier group.

> To get close enough to be effective (let's say, in operations around the Ryukyus), that brings them into range of land-based air of the JASDF/JMSDF.

F-35Bs would operate from 22DDH.

> War with Japan likely means war with the US as well

Not necessarily for Senkaku Islands.

@ Bluewings12

> There , they would have to deal with the French Navy. A fifth of our Navy is riding the waves 24/7 over there ...

Chinese fear Americans and Japanese, but not French. I am sorry to say this, but France didn't leave too much of a strong impression to Chinese.

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Bluewings12 9/21/2009 9:58:34 PM

SlowMan :

""Chinese fear Americans and Japanese, but not French""

??? How do you know who the Chinese fear or not ?

Anyway , if they don 't fear the MN , it is another bonus for us . The wake-up will be even harsher .

2 of our nuke attack subs and a couple of destroyers will stop them dead .

Cheers .

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SlowMan 9/21/2009 11:34:42 PM

@ bluewings12

> How do you know who the Chinese fear or not ?

That's what separates me from the rest here; being able to see things from the other's perspective.

> it is another bonus for us .

Could be.

> The wake-up will be even harsher.

Well, the wake-up call could be in the other way. One thing you need to understand about Chinese is that they place very little value in human lives, and individuals are expendable to achieve a greater goal. You will see Chinese not sparing their sailor's lives until they destroy all opposing French forces.

Cheers .

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usajoe1 9/22/2009 1:43:28 AM

SlowMan :

""Chinese fear Americans and Japanese, but not French""

??? How do you know who the Chinese fear or not ?

Anyway , if they don 't fear the MN , it is another bonus for us . The wake-up will be even harsher .

2 of our nuke attack subs and a couple of destroyers will stop them dead .

The PLAN has about a zero percent chance of fighting the MN in blue water, or close to French territory. Now if the fight was closer in Chinese waters the MN will get smashed by the overwhelming numbers of disel subs and land air support.

Now for the BW coment,

The wake-up will be even harsher . 2 of our nuke attack subs and a couple of destroyers will stop them dead .

you are still posting drunk?

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sentinel28a 9/22/2009 3:13:01 AM

The Hyugas and their F-35s would be just a pleasant bonus. The F-2s and Harpoon-armed P-3s could saturate a Chinese carrier's defenses, even if they stacked a Sovremenny or two around it. Same with India. The SSNs could defend against surface attack, but they can't do jack against air, which would be the primary threat.

The French destroyers would probably be busy hunting subs, but the French SSNs are nothing to scoff at.

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SlowMan 9/22/2009 6:09:51 PM

Wow, some shocking development.

China attempted to lease half of Vladivostok from Russia for $50 billion for 75 years. The report was denied once it was leaked and caused major firestorm in Russia. < link > This plot is actually plausible since Russian Far East side is already overrun by Chinese merchants and businesses.

If China does succeed in leasing Vladivostok(And Chinese are attempting to lease the seaside of it), then I can imagine Chinese building a major port city like Hong Kong and positioning a carrier group there, and have a direct access to Sea of Japan.

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Bluewings12 9/22/2009 7:46:01 PM

SlowMan :

""That's what separates me from the rest here; being able to see things from the other's perspective.""

Uh ?? Ok ...

""You will see Chinese not sparing their sailor's lives until they destroy all opposing French forces.""

Maybe . They 'll have to try anyway .

usajoe :

""Now for the BW coment,

The wake-up will be even harsher . 2 of our nuke attack subs and a couple of destroyers will stop them dead .

you are still posting drunk?""

No Joe , remember that we are talking about the Chinese Navy being able to reach the Indian Ocean and then , getting in touch with the MN in our waters . The Indian Ocean is a bit like the Med Sea , a French fish tank .

A 5th of our fleet is there 24/7 .

We 're not talking about fighting the Chinese Navy in chinese waters ...

Cheers .

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