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Subject: Rafale F3 leading Brazilian F-X race on the promise of extensive tech transfer over Super Hornet
SlowMan    8/4/2009 3:43:03 PM
< link >

Contenders

Rafale F3 : $130 million per plane + extensive tech transfer
Super Hornet : $90 million per plane, weapons and support + will buy some parts from Brazilian suppliers.
Gripen NG : $60 million per plane. Will build half of NGs in Brazil.

Rafale F3 is favored over Super Hornet because of the promise of an extensive tech transfer.
 
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ArtyEngineer    All con   9/19/2009 5:44:11 PM
Guys,
 
any chance we could steer this thread back on track ;)  Im very interested in the whole South America theater. What does Brasil need in a fighter?  What is the driving requirment behind this procurement?  What does Brasil see as its likely threats?  Does brasil intend to step up onto the world stage at some point in the future with regards to coalitions operations with teh US or European allies, these are the things I would like to see discussed!!!!
 
Regards
 
Arty
 
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Bluewings12       9/19/2009 8:00:40 PM
Arty , it is time for me to go to bed but I will try my best to respond to you 2moro .
 
Cheers .
 
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french stratege       9/19/2009 8:31:40 PM

Guys,
 
any chance we could steer this thread back on track ;)  Im very interested in the whole South America theater. What does Brasil need in a fighter?  What is the driving requirment behind this procurement?  What does Brasil see as its likely threats?  Does brasil intend to step up onto the world stage at some point in the future with regards to coalitions operations with teh US or European allies, these are the things I would like to see discussed!!!!

 Regards
Arty

Above local security and modernisation needs, Brazil want to emerge as a global power able to influence global policy including with a seat in UNO Security council
It means that Brazil want to be able to participate to coalition wars under UNO mandate (like in Korean or Gulf war in order to have influence on peace settlement or diplomatic pressures).
So their navy increase, their SSN procurement and futur fighter procurement.
Of course they want to be able to withstand foreign pressures including their weapon supplier pressures or embargo.
So they want source code, technologies, ability to produce spares etc.
It will not be done in a decade but they prepare for the futur.

 
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duplex       9/20/2009 6:21:14 AM
link
 
 
Brazilians will suck the last drop of blood  from Dassault so nothing will be left  on the table for the French.
They know how desperate Dassault is to strike the first deal in 10 years..
 
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FJV    Strange   9/20/2009 2:46:39 PM
Is it that weird to believe that the Rafale option has the most advantages in the unique case of  Brazil?
Certainly seems Brazil seems to think so?

Then there's also my hunch that the electronics in the Rafale may be easier to modify than in certain alternatives.
 
 
 
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 2:58:10 PM
Duplex :
""Brazilians will suck the last drop of blood  from Dassault so nothing will be left  on the table for the French.
They know how desperate Dassault is to strike the first deal in 10 years..""
 
I believe your analysis is wrong . I am going to explain why in a moment .
 
Arty :
""What does Brasil need in a fighter?  What is the driving requirment behind this procurement?  What does Brasil see as its likely threats?  Does brasil intend to step up onto the world stage at some point in the future with regards to coalitions operations with teh US or European allies""
 
Brazil is looking to archive 4 things in one single deal  : getting a fighter , getting a solid Transfert of Technology (ToT) , upgrading its Forces (Air , Ground , Sea) , getting a more powerfull political leverage .
 
Regarding the fighter , it is obvious that Brazil wants a multirole fighter and twin engines is better . The Gripen NG already starts with a handicap . Which one of the SH and the Rafale is better and closer to Brazil 's need is debatable (not for me) .
Regarding the ToT , Sweden can 't offer much (too much US tech on the Gripen) , the US are reluctant and have always been about ToT but Obama and the Congress might be able to offer a decent deal , France can offer a better ToT than both her competitors .
Regarding the fact that Brazil also wants attack Subs (one MUST be Nuclear driven) , Sweden is out as well as the US unless a big step is made in the US foreign politics and at the Congress . Brazil also wants help for transport and support aircrafts , tactical shoppers , better C4s (infrastructures , Coms , Integration , etc) as well as some ground support vehicules .
Regarding the political leverage , Brazil wants to stay the big boy in South-America and play a new "song" in the UN Concil .
 
To archive these 4 goals , it seems obvious to many military consultants (and to me) that France is proposing the best deal so far . 
All of this to say that the Brazilians are more looking at France than at the Rafale in itself . They also think that it is preferable NOT to deal with the US for home security reason . 
As you know , I believe the Rafale to be the better aircraft but the Brazilians are looking at more than just an aircraft .
This is my opinion .
 
Cheers .
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 3:53:32 PM
Just for the sake of it , I think it is time to re-post this excellent video :
 
h*tp://www.dailymotion.com/video/xzrje_rafale-global-punch_extreme
 
I re-post it because it shows what 3 Rafales F3 can do with a good mission planing and an AWAC in the rear .
SEAD , Interception , deep strike . 
It is not "amazing" or new in itself , but it has the quality and it shows very cleverly the ease of use and deadliness of the platform .
Bare the HMS , this what our actual Rafale F3s can do (and more) .
 
Cheers .
 
 
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 5:48:13 PM
Brazil has most probably more intels on the tested aircraft(s) than we do and I trust them to look at every important layers of the jets .
I would like to know a bit more about the airframe quality design and robustness of the Gripen NG and the SH .
Stuff like airframe strength , planned maximum flight hours/landings , etc . Do you have anything ?
 
On my side , here is what I have about the Rafale :
 

 
The "185% design limit load before the airframe broke" is excellent . Another thing who called my attention is the difference in between the initial flying hours/landings and the planned flying hours/landings .
There is an increase of around 40% regarding the flying hours and an increase of around 85% regarding the landings (!) .
It seems that the main strength resides in the robustness and longevity of the airframe in general including the landing gears which is proving the sound and time proof original design .
 
Do you have any infos on the Gripen and the SH ? I am curious ...
 
Cheers .

 
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 6:01:38 PM
These are the materials used :
 
 
 
Cheers .
 
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gf0012-aust       9/20/2009 6:28:37 PM
Do you have any infos on the Gripen and the SH ? I am curious ...
all the things you mention are standard and are requested as part of an RFT. 

a basic aircraft assessment would involve typically over 50,000 identified line items - and thats before getting into combat vignettes
 
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sentinel28a       9/20/2009 6:50:59 PM
My guess is that Brazil wants a genuine modern multirole fighter, with probably an eye towards replacing their F-5s.  The Rafale is a good choice in that regard.  I don't recall the arrangement with the Mirage 2000, which I would regard as still a superb interceptor; a mixed Mirage/Rafale force would give them an edge on Venezuela.  (Venezuela's Flankers are nothing more than overcompensation by Chavez IMHO; most of his air force still depends on Mirage 5 retreads and F-5s, now that his F-16s have been grounded.)  I thought that the Rafale might have potential of a follow-on to replace the A-4s on the Sao Paulo, but Doggtag (I believe) tells me that the Rafale's a bit too heavy for combat operations off that carrier.
 
At this point, I would say that Brazil's only real rival in South America is Peru, which is operating mostly Russian equipment, and Chile, which just started fielding F-16s to replace their Mirages.  Argentina has potential, but their economy is hurting and they're still depending on ancient A-4s and Mirages.  Colombia's in kind of the same boat, with upgraded Mirages and Kfirs, but both nations really need a newer multirole fighter.  Dassault could do worse to push the Rafale there, and I wonder if that's one of the reasons for the Brazil partnership.
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 7:07:23 PM
What is the current US position regarding H. Chavez and his foolish behavior ?
We have some news and reports here in France and it seems that the Obama admin (POTUS , Pentagone , NSA) are keeping a good eye on the clown with a sarcastic smile . Is that correct ?
 
Cheers .
 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 7:13:26 PM
gf :
""a basic aircraft assessment would involve typically over 50,000 identified line items - and thats before getting into combat vignettes""
 
Ok . Do you remember what was the Oz 's request (about flying hours/landings) for your SHs ? It might help ;-)
 
Cheers .
 
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gf0012-aust       9/20/2009 9:03:37 PM

Ok . Do you remember what was the Oz 's request (about flying hours/landings) for your SHs ? It might help ;-)

I do for some and I'm not saying.

1) because it's treated by the manufacturers as commercial in confidence against the RFT
2) because some of the requirements directly impact upon mission issues, planning issues, combat vignettes etc...
3) when other manufacturers appeal against a decision, even they do not get access to the other vendors specific submission vectors.  They get debriefed, but they don't get data
eg one aircraft assessment I was involved with involved literally "tonnes" of supporting documents/material. the integration docs alone run into thousands of pages against specific criteria.
correspondingly, whenever you see stats and figures quoted on the internet as capability tipping points, then the odds are more than 99% that its BS.  no one with any credibility is going to quote detail as the implications are legal and in most countries, criminal.  nobody is going to quote real meaningful material on the internet as its not worth losing your job "just to correct" statements.  If it's OSINT, and validated, then maybe.  But no-one is going to run primary and get their nuts cuts off just to score points in an internet debate.

why?  because everyone doesn't leak data as it would destroy the trust between the manufacturer and potential customers.
they would never get a sale in the future from that country or its immediate friends for a long long time - if ever.

there is a bit of a difference between engineering empirical stats and performance stats against an RFT.  eg the materials list you show for Rafale is almost nonsensical as the actual quantum is into double figures.  so, the diagram is in real terms meaningless 


 
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Bluewings12       9/20/2009 9:33:42 PM
gf :
""I do for some and I'm not saying.
1) because it's treated by the manufacturers as commercial in confidence against the RFT""
 
Of course but please can you give me the proof that you know of , that would prove your status to me (no bad intended) .
 
""2) because some of the requirements directly impact upon mission issues, planning issues, combat vignettes etc...""
 
Obviously , I agree but we are talking about the planned flying hours and landing (I quote) "under a severe usage spectrum" . Can you provide any infos about your SHs ?
 
""3) when other manufacturers appeal against a decision, even they do not get access to the other vendors specific submission vectors.  They get debriefed, but they don't get data""
 
What is your point regarding my questions ?
The rest of your post is sound but it seems to me that  : or 
-1) you know nothing and you can 't answer my questions (no big deal)
-2) you know and you are bluffing
 
Cheers .

 
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