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Subject: Rafale F3 leading Brazilian F-X race on the promise of extensive tech transfer over Super Hornet
SlowMan    8/4/2009 3:43:03 PM
< link > Contenders Rafale F3 : $130 million per plane + extensive tech transfer Super Hornet : $90 million per plane, weapons and support + will buy some parts from Brazilian suppliers. Gripen NG : $60 million per plane. Will build half of NGs in Brazil. Rafale F3 is favored over Super Hornet because of the promise of an extensive tech transfer.
 
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Alexis       9/13/2009 11:28:21 AM

"President Sarkozy is the only president up to now who has told me he not only wants to transfer the technology to Brazil, but also build the plane in Brazil and let our country have the option of selling to all Latin America what will be built here," Lula said.
"Now we have to see if Dassault can show the same flexibility as Sarkozy."

Lula stressed that "if someone wants to make a better offer (than France), let them do it. That's the way negotiations work."

Indeed, this is both fulfilment by Brazil of one of its legal obligations that is keeping the RFP open until the same date for all bidders, so as to avoid any legal contestation of the result, and checking both that Dassault really wants to sell its planes and that the US are not ready to make the same kind of offer under same terms as France (Sweden is less of a concern because they depend on the US anyway for part of Gripen's technology)
On the first point, Dassault wanting to sell its planes, it's not a real worry... :-)
 
On the second, the possibility still exists that the US will choose to make an extraordinary effort at technology sharing, in order to thwart this potential first foreign contract for Rafale. Then of course Brazil would need to believe the US' word on such a matter as technology sharing where America's reputation is, to speak politely, not exactly stellar.
 
But it's possible nonetheless. I guess it's work 24 hours a day at Dassault's now...

 
 
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Rufus       9/13/2009 12:05:37 PM
"On the first point, Dassault wanting to sell its planes, it's not a real worry... :-)"
 
It is not enough to simply say Dassualt wants to sell its planes... of course it does.  (It did in the previous competitions it entered as well.)  The problem is that at the end of the day what Dassault REALLY wants is to make money, generally it does that by selling planes.   You could make the case that Dassault thinks selling these planes at a small loss might make sense in the long term if it allows them to achieve more sales elsewhere... but ultimately Dassault needs to make money and it can't discount its planes to nothing to make the politicians happy.
 
The proposed fixed-price maintenance contract is a perfect example.  That is the sort of contract that could really blow up in Dassault's face if they aren't careful.  On the one hand they want to bid low so that they can win the contract, on the other hand there is no way they will be able to bid as low as Boeing because they don't want to be stuck losing money on the contract for the next 10 years...
 
The Super Hornet is a significantly more capable aircraft with a significantly lower price.  Dassault has to hope the political considerations will be enough to out-weight the fact that it is offering a less capable product at a higher price. 
 
 
 
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SlowMan       9/13/2009 3:31:06 PM
@ Rufus
 
The Super Hornet is a significantly more capable aircraft with a significantly lower price.
 
But doesn't come with source code and nuclear submarines.
 
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doggtag       9/13/2009 3:33:42 PM
The proposed fixed-price maintenance contract is a perfect example.  That is the sort of contract that could really blow up in Dassault's face if they aren't careful.  On the one hand they want to bid low so that they can win the contract, on the other hand there is no way they will be able to bid as low as Boeing because they don't want to be stuck losing money on the contract for the next 10 years...


 The Super Hornet is a significantly more capable aircraft with a significantly lower price.  Dassault has to hope the political considerations will be enough to out-weight the fact that it is offering a less capable product at a higher price. 


Boeing might have something if they'd have offered Brazil the first aircraft at the same low low low price of barely $50mil that they were suggesting for a US Air Guard buy of the airplane (but they didn't, did they?).
 
The other catch here is, offhand how many examples can you think of where US defense contractors stayed within "fixed price" maintenance contracts?
If Brazil is half as wise as I hope they are, then they'd be well enough aware to watch the track record of how US defense contractors are notorious (like we wrote the book on it) for NOT sticking to originally-agreed-upon estimates under the guises of unforeseen technical hurdles and complications blamed upon their vendors and subcontractors' lackluster performance (and more often than not, never accepting it's their ultimate responsibility for not keeping things progressing in a timely, within-budget fashion...it's always someone else's fault).
 
I for one would love to see US shipbuilding firms pony up to Brazil and help them get the ball rolling on their own submarine- and other shipbuilding- capabilities, but let's face it: we can't even deliver a frigate-sized LCS on time and within budget.
How can we be expected to meet any contract goals on time and within budget for Brazil?
Seriously?
 
As to suggesting Dassault is still going to lose money regardless of how you look at it:
what, and Boeing won't?
 
It's not like Brazil is going to allow Boeing to pack up all of St Louis or wherever and move it lock, stock, and barrel (skilled employees included) to Brazil to manufacture its F/A-18s there...and does Boeing cry foul the day that Brazil/Embraer announce they can meet a foreign contract with their locally-built Super Hornets at a better price than US-made Boeing can do?
Just how many US tech restrictions is Brazil willing to tolerate in the name of getting supposedly superior US tech?
(we still don't know how to build our own SSKs, so who are we to teach Brazil that skillset?)
And if we go that route with Brazil,
what happens when other previous US customers start expecting the same reduced restrictions?
Is the US ready to keep previous customers on a technology restriction list,
yet let Brazil (for the most part, a new customer) have special terms?
 
Do we offer India the same when it wants similar tech conditions
if we expect to sell the Super Hornet blueprints to them, too?
 
If the US does pull it off (winning Brazil) I for one will put money on it that it won't make two years before Boeing (and cohorts) announce that they need to "amend" the original contract because they can't stick to the terms they used to win the competition.
 
Then again, I can't say I expect France would, either.
But the US defense industry is far more notorious for conducting its business that way (F-35 ring a bell?).


 
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Rufus       9/13/2009 4:42:01 PM
"As to suggesting Dassault is still going to lose money regardless of how you look at it:
what, and Boeing won't?"
 
I suggested no such thing.  What I said is that Dassault is in business to make a profit and they aren't going to agree to terms that would wreck the company. 
 
 
As for the performance of US contractors... you seem to be selling them badly short.  US contractors perform very well the vast majority of the time.  It is a minority of projects that run far far over budget that are the big problem.  The US has had huge problems in recent years controlling costs on these big programs.  The overwhelming majority of the time US contractors meet their performance objectives.  This is one of the reasons they dominate the world arms market.
 
 
 
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Beazz    Just Curious   9/13/2009 5:24:28 PM
Just out of curiosity, why would Boeing or the US even for a minute consider giving Brazil the blueprints to the SH when it is obvious to even a deaf, dumb and blind person all they really want is that, so they can build up their own defense aerospace industry and then sell OUR plane all over South America cheaper? They could give a rats back side about getting the actual planes. They want to build them and sell them and everyone knows it. What kind of brain dead fool of a business man even entertains something as ridiculous as this? The US should simply tell Brazil to enjoy their Rafails and have a nice day. Wonder how long Bill Gates and Microsoft would stay in business if they gave every 2 bit lazy ass government the source code to Windows so they could then build their own dirt cheap version and sell it to their very competotors? Now very damn long.
 
How bout Brazil try that novel concept of actually developing something on their own and then sell it? Oh that's right, they CAN'T!!! Simply amazing is all I can say. I'm no fan of the French, but I seriously hope Dassault tells Sarkozy and Brazil to take a flying leap into the middle of next century before they give those 3rd world tin horns the source code to their plane, which is a very good plane, just so they can turn around and build their own version and stick it to Dassault in the end. It does not take a military procurement genious to see if they agree to the terms Sarkozy has promised, in 10 years time the Rafale as a French produced pland will be over and done with.
 
Personally I think France and the US should for the first time in a long long time actually be true allies and agree to not allow these tin horn nations to literally black mail either nation into giving them the blueprints to our high tech toys all in the name of a sale. It is simply not worth what it ultimately cost each nation. If they want our toys, we should all make it abundantly clear to them they will get them on our terms and they will NOT be getting any kind of codes that allow them to even remotely think about building their own version and we WILL be making a profit if we sell them. That's what most business people do when they sell something for Gods sake. If they don't like that, enjoy their new Russian junk!!
 
Beazz
 
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Alexis       9/13/2009 5:32:19 PM

The proposed fixed-price maintenance contract is a perfect example.  That is the sort of contract that could really blow up in Dassault's face if they aren't careful.  On the one hand they want to bid low so that they can win the contract, on the other hand there is no way they will be able to bid as low as Boeing because they don't want to be stuck losing money on the contract for the next 10 years...
 
(...)
 
The Super Hornet is a significantly more capable aircraft with a significantly lower price.  Dassault has to hope the political considerations will be enough to out-weight the fact that it is offering a less capable product at a higher price.  

- On the question of fixed price maintenance, I see no reason of believing either that Dassault is unable to maintain the planes it sells within predictable cost patterns while Boeing could do so, or that Boeing would be willing to lose money on that contract just to win it over Dassault. This would be a strategy of dumping: why would Boeing be satisfied with it?
 
- Regarding the issue of comparing combat capability of Rafale and F/A-18E, let me say it loud and clear: I WILL NOT TOUCH IT, EVEN WITH A TEN-FOOT POLE :-D ! Discussing such a comparison, while you and I are not privy to the most specific performance info (and if one was, he would not post such info on this site!) can only degenerate in a vain shouting match of "My di.. sorry fighter is better than yours" ;-)
 
- About the price comparison, this is easily solved, since Brazilian defense experts say [url=http://www.france24.com/en/200...]here[/url] that:
[quote]The price per plane -- one of the criticisms of the Rafale by its rival bidders -- "is not fundamental," During said.

"It's the operating cost that counts. The cost per hour of flight, of maintenance, of the electronics. We are a poor country and all this has to last for the next 30 years."

He added: "The Rafale is not the most expensive offer in terms of operating cost. That's the F/A-18."[/quote]
 
- Regarding the political considerations, they are indeed paramount. From the link you posted a few posts above:
[quote]
"One thing is sure: we want a transfer of technology and to build the planes in Brazil," said Lula, stressing he had the final say in the decision.
"The air force has the technological knowhow to make the evaluation, and it will do so," he added. "But the decision is political and strategic, and it's up to the president of the republic and no one else."[/quote]
 
It's a political and strategic decision of Brazil to build up their weapon technology basis to fit their ambitions as a future major power in a spirit of independence.
 
It's still possible that the US will win this contract after all, but only if they manage to approve within the next few days unlimited access by Brazil to all F/A-18E technologies.
 
Time will tell.
 
 
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Aussie Diggermark 2       9/13/2009 10:09:10 PM


Beside, Strike Eagle was battle-proven, while Rafale's A2G wasn't. Not sure if Rafale even had a working targeting pod back in 2002.

 

You're not sure? Why not? Rafail doesn't have a working targetting pod TODAY. The Rafails are still dependant on other fighters or assets to lase Paveway II laser guided bombs for them. 
 
AS for AASM, yeah, this is a special weapon alright. A 125kg warhead with GPS/INS guidance only. No equivalent within US inventory? Uh yeah okay, one must not have heard of JDAM, JSOW SDB etc. What the AASAM also features is "great" moving targeting capability which is repeatedly demonstrated by FACT that French forces are dropping Paveway LGB's over Afghanistan, rather than AASM.
  
AASM might become an adequate weapon. One day. Much like the Rafail actually... 

 
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SlowMan       9/14/2009 12:20:27 AM
Ha Ha Ha, what the hell? 
 
French tech transfer is for KC-390, not Rafale!!! <  link >
 
"A key issue to securing the deal in Brazil is technology transfer, and France has chosen to provide that by aiding the development of the KC-390 twin-turbofan tanker/transport. Paris also indicated it may buy 12 of the aircraft.

Brazil?s decision to allow the technology transfer to take place not on the core fighter program but on an unrelated project was a surprise, says an official at one of the other bidding companies. It also could upset Washington, which struggled to satisfy Brazil?s extensive demands for technology transfer and tried to devise an alternate approach."

 
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Blue Apple       9/14/2009 4:25:02 AM
And give up on nuclear sub. Brazil's determined to have nuclear sub, and I am sure this deal could be changed if the US agrees to sell nuclear subs to Brazil. But not until then.
 
The deal for the submarines (which does not include nuclear reactors) was signed last year. It is not conditioned by Brazil buying Rafale or not.
 
You cannot compare bomb hauling capability of a 36 ton aircraft with a 24 ton aircraft at take off.
 
When the 36 tons plane has an empty weight that is 5 tons higher, you can. A Rafale can take off with targeting pods, 2 heavy loads (either 2xcruise missiles or 2x3AASM125/250/500), 4 (soon to be 6 if the UAE deal sees the light) AAM and 3 external tanks, achieving a strike radius way over 1000km.
 
French tech transfer is for KC-390, not Rafale
 
Deal is for both, the journalists are confused. There is ToT for the Rafale and technical assistance/partnership on the KC-390.
 
 
The proposed fixed-price maintenance contract is a perfect example.  That is the sort of contract that could really blow up in Dassault's face if they aren't careful. 
 
While this is correct, Dassault already has a global maintenance contract with the AdA with fixed set targets. All Sarkozy did was offer the same price for Brazil.
 
The Super Hornet is a significantly more capable aircraft with a significantly lower price.
 
Hard to see what one plane can do that the other can't (and vice versa). Except for specific weapon integrations.
 
And neither of us knows the actual price the F/A-18 was offered or what other items the deal included.
 
Personally I think France and the US should for the first time in a long long time actually be true allies and agree to not allow these tin horn nations to literally black mail either nation into giving them the blueprints to our high tech toys all in the name of a sale.
 
Your analysis seems to completely miss the French point of view. Let's put it bluntly, ever since the start of the F-16 program the US has been ruthlessly pushing other Western combat fighters teams out of the market, using both political and commercial pressure to snatch every potential deal.
 
The F-35 program is a perfect demonstration of this strategy, it managed to lure small (and not so small) countries into locking themselves with a US design  by using a carrot & stick approach; at the same time killing most export prospects for SAAB, Dassault or Eurofighter. The only possible long term result of this strategy is for European aeronautic inductries to become second-tier suppliers to US firms, losing all guenuine design capabilities.
 
Faced with the prospect of disappearing or becoming simple subcontractors, a firm like Dassault seems to have decided for a third option, go down in flame by sharing most of its know-how to emerging new actors. The end result may well be a pyrrhic victory for the US.
 
 
You're not sure? Why not? Rafail doesn't have a working targetting pod TODAY.
 
If we move past the use of the word "rafail" that nevertheless indicates the poster limited mental abilities, we can see here a classic example of someone unable to grasp the simple notion that an innanimate object capabilities is conditioned by its users. In this case, the poster should explain why the AdA (sole user of the Rafale so far) should have integrated its previous generation laser designation pod only to spend the time & money a couple of years later to integrate the new pods when it was much easier (and cheaper) to use its plentiful older platforms (Mirage 2000 & Super Etendard) for target designation roles.
 
(one should also note that the Damocles pod has been integrated to Dassault test planes for a long time, the Swiss flight trials already included the pod last year)
 
AS for AASM, yeah, this is a special weapon alright. A 125kg warhead with GPS/INS guidance only.
 
Let's analyze this statement. First the poster seems to ignore that AASM kits can be used on 125, 250 and 500kg bomb bodies. He also seems to ignore that AASM kits can include and IR guidance nose sensor (a laser one will be tested in 2010). Finally he manages to miss the most obvious pa
 
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