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Subject: South Korea abandons consideration of stealth fighter development
Rufus    7/27/2009 12:25:43 PM
h*tp://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/07/113_49176.html
 
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SlowMan       9/21/2009 12:50:01 PM
@ Rufus

> Shockingly, the professional publication with some actual credibility describes a plausible program

Actually that aviation week article is already being discussed at Korean boards. The general impression is "full of dated and obsolete figures." The language barrier is surprisingly high, leading to a 6 month gap in flow of information. For example, Chinese newspapers report that the first Chinese aircraft carrier has entered construction back in June, while people here debate when the China will start building its first carrier.

What I can tell you is this. All the figures and cost I listed here are finalized on September 15th, the aviation week numbers are older, much older.
 
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sentinel28a       9/21/2009 5:27:21 PM
Aviation Week is very reliable, Slow.  Not saying that they can't be wrong, but they're usually right.  Just because Korean message boards are debating their numbers doesn't mean that those message boards are right.  Casual observers of the SP boards might be led to believe that the Rafale is either made of magical pixy dust, or is an iron stove that can barely get off the ground.  Neither is right, of course, but that's the problem with relying on the internet or message boards.
 
And KFX is an example of "fighter nationalism."  There's nothing wrong with that, if Korea wants to foot the cost for developing an entirely indigenous fighter that they're not likely to export.  They might be better served and it certainly would be cheaper buying on the open market, but if this is what Korea wants to do, go for it.  There is definitely some nationalism at play, but that's not necessarily a bad thing either.  Just expensive.
 
As far as the Chinese newspapers go, remember that they're state-run and as such are organs for the CCP.  As we've found out here at SP, the Chinese government routinely has posters go onto message boards and post either propaganda or disinformation.  I remember a Chinese poster here who claimed the PLAN had a dozen SLBM-equipped subs and two carriers building--in 2004.  It may be true that they've finally laid the keel for their two new carriers, but again, I'll believe it when they're launched and I see shakedown cruises...but not before then.
 
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SlowMan       9/21/2009 9:14:02 PM
@ sentinel28a

> Aviation Week is very reliable, Slow.

For English language sources, yes.
For non-English language sources, the information is hard to come by and is often out of date, as is the case with KFX.

> Not saying that they can't be wrong

I am not saying they are wrong, I am saying what Aviation Week has is outdated, by roughly 6 month.
What I am giving you here is days old, posted here in real-time.

> Just because Korean message boards are debating their numbers doesn't mean that those message boards are right.

Except that their board have reporters who actually set in the meeting, industry figures(often blasted for being KAI sales executive but the info they release is obviously reliable since it is from the vender), subcontractors, etc.

> And KFX is an example of "fighter nationalism."  There's nothing wrong with that, if Korea wants to foot the cost for developing an entirely indigenous fighter that they're not likely to export.

Indonesia already signed up for KFX.
Turkey is another very likely intend-buyer since they have been very good repeat customer of Korean arms in the past.

I don't know about Turkey(a NATO member and cleared to buy F-35 and latest US gears), but Indonesia waiting on the buyer's list presents quite a challenge, and I don't know how Koreans plan to take care of Indonesian issue.

> They might be better served and it certainly would be cheaper buying on the open market

There is no plane available on the open market that meets KFX requirement, save for something like PAK-FA. The requirement calls for an all-aspect low-RCS twin-engine fighter with supercruise and internal weapons bay. Supercruise is absolutely a must, RCS level is negotiable but sustained supercruise during combat is not. And indeed it is supercruise that separates F-22 from F-35.

> As far as the Chinese newspapers go, remember that they're state-run and as such are organs for the CCP.

Therefore they are not internet rumors.
 
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Rufus       9/22/2009 1:21:18 AM
"For English language sources, yes.
For non-English language sources, the information is hard to come by and is often out of date, as is the case with KFX."
 
Ah yes, better to believe a random internet kid who has shown time and again that he can't even accurately summarize a press article...
 
Aviation Week covers the entire world.  They do and always have spent a great deal of time on programs in non-English speaking countries.  The idea that their translators are somehow behind by 6-months is just nutty.  
 
The simple fact here is that you are a fanboy with a habit of lying when it suits you, and they are a respected industry publication with as good a record for accuracy as is possible to achieve.
 
 
"The requirement calls for an all-aspect low-RCS twin-engine fighter with supercruise and internal weapons bay."
 
 
Right right... Go back to the very first post in this thread:
 
The report suggests major changes in required operational capabilities (ROCs) for the KF-X aircraft. In particular, the report says the KF-X jet should be an F-16-class fighter to be developed by foreign aircraft manufacturers.

Initiated in 2001, the KF-X program had originally been aimed at developing and producing by 2020 about 120 fifth-generation fighters stealthier than Dassault's Rafale or the Eurofighter Typhoon, though not as much as Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightening II.

``The KF-X ROCs have been readjusted to a realistic level after consultations among parties concerned, as developing a full stealth fighter has already been assessed as technically and economically nonviable,'' a procurement official said on condition of anonymity.

...

According to the interim report, the KF-X will be an F-16 Block 50 level multi-role fighter jet with an engine thrust of 50,000 pounds. The aircraft would have either one or two engines, but a twin-engine system is preferred, it says.


 
 
"I am not saying they are wrong, I am saying what Aviation Week has is outdated, by roughly 6 month.
What I am giving you here is days old, posted here in real-time."
 
LMAO
 
Even if you had access to up-to-date and accurate information you have shown time and again that you are unwilling or unable to accurately relay information.  That or you are completely incapable of making sense of it... either makes you pretty  useless.
 
 

 
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sentinel28a       9/22/2009 3:20:48 AM
I seriously doubt Aviation Week is 6 months behind.  If we were talking about the bad old days of the USSR, when the Russians were obfuscating the hell out of everything, then maybe...but not today, and not with the ROK.  It wouldn't be just Aviation Week either--you'll have Air Forces Monthly, Air International, and Combat Aircraft all over this too.  If KAI wants to sell the KFX overseas (which would be a good idea, for reasons you mentioned), they'll want to get this info out as soon as possible. 
 
Slow, you should know better than to trust internet boards!  I can say that I'm actually an insider at the Pentagon and that the F-22 was cancelled because we've got Veritechs in production--doesn't make it true.  Maybe insiders are posting on message boards, but more likely they're also calling publications like Aviation Week, because they want to get the word out.  Everybody reads Aviation Week, especially potential customers.  Makes no sense to sit on this or not make sure AW doesn't have the latest on KFX. 
 
I haven't heard anything about Turkey using Korean equipment--do you have any examples? I'd be interested.
 
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SlowMan       9/22/2009 9:59:15 AM
@ Rufus

> Right right... Go back to the very first post in this thread:

That's the inaccurate article.

@ sentinel28a

> but not today, and not with the ROK.

Typically this is the problem of accessing information in non-English.

Ironically, people at 2ch has more upto date info on this than people here or at aviation week, because of Japanese ability to directly browse Korean content.

> Slow, you should know better than to trust internet boards!  I can say that I'm actually an insider at the Pentagon and that the F-22 was cancelled because we've got Veritechs in production

It's not how it works over there. One actually has to prove one's real identification before getting any kind of access ID over there, even for getting a simple Yahoo webmail account. This is why they know the people discussing information are whom they are supposed to be, complete with a 3rd party journalist validation that they are indeed whom they are supposed to be.  

> I haven't heard anything about Turkey using Korean equipment--do you have any examples? I'd be interested.

Altay main battle tank < link >
T-155 Firtina Howitzer < link >
KT-1 trainer < link >
 
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sentinel28a       9/22/2009 2:00:06 PM
Ah, okay.  I hadn't heard about that, though I do recall seeing something on the T-50.
 
Again, I wouldn't trust anything on message boards without having some way to verify.  I can claim to know everything about anything, and for all you know the SP Powers That Be have vetted me, too.  I'm also quite sure that publications like Aviation Week have Korean correspondents who can translate freely.  This isn't the 1880s; internationally respected magazines like AW, or even glossies like Air Forces Monthly, don't exclude people because they don't speak English.  Hell, I could call up an old professor friend of mine who speaks Korean and have him translate an article for me over the phone; how hard would it be for someone who actually gets paid to do this stuff?
 
 
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SlowMan       10/12/2009 9:58:18 AM
Flight Global's KFX update with Boeing's comment on it < link >
 
According to the preliminary specifications, the aircraft is to have basic stealth characteristics and a domestically built active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. It would have a much larger combat radius than the F-16, include an electronic warfare suite, incorporate an infrared search-and-track system, and datalink systems fit for a network-centric environment.

It has not been decided if it would be a single-engined or twin-engined aircraft, but it is projected to have 50,000lb of thrust (220kN). Super-velocity intercept and supercruise capabilities are also required.

Seoul also hopes to engage foreign aircraft manufacturers significantly in the programme. The Konkuk centre's conclusion was that the "self-development of the aircraft is possible" if there is "joint development of core technology" and sufficient "technology transfer from abroad". To this end, the centre earlier this year asked Boeing, Eurofighter, Lockheed and Saab for their recommendations about the feasibility of the plans, as well as for suggestions on how they could help.

Boeing, which has sold 60 F-15Ks to South Korea and has been the most successful defence contractor in the country in recent years, is keen to get involved in the programme.

"We have been working with the Korean government since 2007 on several scenarios and ways to collaborate on the KF-X. They will take all of the input and make a decision within the next 12 months," says Joe Song, Asia Pacific vice-president for international business development at Boeing Integrated Defense Systems. "The KF-X is complementary to what we offer. One of the benefits is that they know our aircraft and love them." 

On a side note, Boeing IDS's Korean office also has been rumored to be raided by government prosecutors, in addition to Saab's.
 
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SlowMan       11/13/2009 11:53:59 PM
KFX news update. < link >

The Korean parliament received the result of KFX feasibility study report concluding that KFX is economically and technically viable and that the project should enter full development phase immediately without further delay.

The summary of findings.

- KFX 2007 was a full-strength stealth fighter larger than F-35, that was positioned in between F-35 and F-22 in capability. This version would cost $10 billion to develop and cost $70 million to produce each(fly-away cost), so the unit procurement cost would have been $153 million/plane based on a production run of 120 units. This was considered too excessive and was scrapped.

- KFX 2009 is a F/A-18 class fighter with stealth selectively applied. It's a 10.5 ton fighter empty and 16 ton take-off weight for A2A mission. It would cost $5 billion to develop and cost $50 million to produce each(fly-away cost), so the unit procurement cost would be $91 million/plane based on a production run of 120 units, and is considered acceptable.

- The third option, the direct importation of an existing foreign fighter with the capability comparable to KFX 2009 would be $71 million each, so there is a $2.5 billion saving in direct procurement cost from doing KFX 2009 instead of importing something like Super Hornet. Furthermore, maintenance and operating cost savings of $9 billion can be realized over the 30 year life of 120 fighters, so the total cost savings from KFX 2009 is $11.5 billion over imported foreign fighters for a fleet of 120 units.

- KFX 2009 program is expected to create 70,000 related jobs and $5 billion worth of new technology.

- Accordingly, KFX program should enter full-development phase immediately without any further delay starting next year.

Well, this is sort of a bait and switch tactic from ROKAF and Korean DoD, which is sticking with KFX 2007 configuration and doubled its requirement to 250 units to justify that $10 billion development cost, and that the extra $20 million unit cost increase of 2007 is well worth the price, especially when they would save $20 billion in operating and maintenance cost over maintaining a fleet of 250 F-35s. KFX 2007 would be an easier sell now with China's 5th-gen fighter shock.
 
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Hamilcar       11/14/2009 12:04:22 AM
That was using the Hawk trainer development program as a baseline estimate and it was an economic feasibility study for an export market by university economics wonks to the Korean parliament with not one of them with experience with aeronautics program management at all!
 
Who are you trying to kid?
 
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