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Subject: Japanese choices in aviation market reveal overreliance on U.S.
maruben    7/13/2009 12:34:07 PM
Monday, July 13, 2009


THE VIEW FROM EUROPE
Japanese choices in aviation market reveal overreliance on U.S.


By JOCHEN LEGEWIE
For decades, Japan's military partner of choice has been the United States. The reasons are well known: The influence of the Occupation after World War II and the adoption of an American-style Constitution that put strong restrictions on Japan's ability to maintain any kind of martial force.

Hand in hand with this, Japan has come to depend heavily on the U.S. for protection and support in foreign affairs. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine closer allies in military terms than Japan and the United States. Despite some opposition, this alliance has served Japan well over the past 60 years.

Recently, however, the Defense Agency was upgraded to a full-fledged ministry. This long overdue step in recognizing the size and status of Japan's modern military signals the rise of a more independent Japan.

Despite this act of "growing up," Japan's dependence on the U.S. still seems to carry the day. One case in point is the Air Self-Defense Force.

The ASDF has traditionally relied on U.S. aircraft, and a look at its inventory shows that, with the exception of one British-supplied search-and-rescue plane, all its aircraft, including F-15 Eagles, are "Made in U.S.A." or built in Japan using U.S. technology.

But one plane in particular, the old F-4 Phantom, is still in use and long overdue for replacement. Japan's preferred purchase would be the next-generation F-22 Raptor, a stealth jet fighter produced by Lockheed Martin that represents the latest generation of radar-evading technology.

But there's an obstacle to the deal: Congress has vetoed export of the F-22 to keep the technology within the U.S., and it remains to be seen whether the ban will be lifted in the future. This prompted Japan to postpone its purchase plans until its next five-year defense buildup program starting in fiscal 2010, although it originally planned to buy the first seven planes in the current buildup phase. In other words, it is hoping for the ban to be lifted.

What is missing to many observers' eyes is an in-depth examination of alternatives. Actually, the Defense Ministry has short-listed six replacement planes, including the French Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is built by a consortium of manufacturers from four European countries.

However, it seems these alternatives are not being taken seriously even though they offer some clear benefits over the F-22. The Eurofighter, for example, is not only readily available but also costs half the price of the F-22 and is cheaper to maintain.

More importantly, the Eurofighter doesn't take the black-box approach of the F-22 but offers technology transfer. It provides Japanese industry a significant package of work, including the potential for licensed production.

A similar situation exists in civil aviation, where a bias toward U.S. products also prevails. European aircraft builder Airbus is a good example.

Airbus is the global market leader in planes with over 100 seats and had a commanding 54 percent share of the market for these types of aircraft as of 2008. Globally, the company is running neck and neck with America's Boeing but generally has the upper hand.

Except in Japan, that is.

In Japan, Airbus only has a market share of 4 percent, despite high hopes several years ago of capturing half the domestic market for large planes. Indeed, All Nippon Airways recently postponed its decision on ordering Airbus' new flagship, the A380, although it continues to be frustrated by Boeing's inability to deliver the 787 Dreamliner on time.

So it appears the U.S. stranglehold on military planes also extends to the peaceful end of the aviation spectrum. The favoritism is thick and even appears to be supported by elements of the Japanese media.

This favoritism was evident at a BAE Systems press conference last month in Tokyo. BAE, the British member of the Eurofighter consortium, held the conference to explain the advantages the Eurofighter has over its rivals. But on the next day, only the daily Asahi Shimbun, the Nikkei and The Japan Times reported on the event.

At the same time, the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's largest newspaper in terms of circulation, ran an editorial June 10 supporting a proposal to relax the rules on Japanese arms exports. The daily argued that Japan should have joined the U.S.-led consortium for development of the F-35 Lightning, another replacement candidate on the ASDF's short list.

The editorial went on to urge the Japanese government to grow up and review its decade-old principles for arms exports. Pointing to the deteriorating finances of the Japanese defense industry, the Yomiuri stated: "The security of the nation could be undermined if specialized companies and skilled workers involved in the manufacturing of primary weapons are no longer available in Japan and the country has to rely on other nations."

What is striking about this argument is that the Yomiuri is clearly ignoring the opportunity being presented by the Eurofighter proposal, which offers a solution to the very problem it describes. Indeed, the editorial makes no reference at all to the European alternative.

As a European who favors free and transparent markets, the author believes that the Japanese media should do its utmost to help the defense sector ? and the public ? understand what options are available and to select from within these options the best solutions to its aviation needs.

Japan is strongly lobbying for an economic partnership agreement with the EU. Opening its aviation markets could be a good first step in convincing it that Japan is ready and willing to offer reciprocal benefits to both sides.

Jochen Legewie is president of German communications consultancy CNC Japan K.K.
 
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SlowMan       10/19/2009 10:02:06 AM
More problems for Japanese aviation industry < link >
 
Roughly two dozen fighter parts makers are quitting business due to lack of new orders and delays on F-X. This is considered a grave concern for Japanese DoD, which wants to preserve local aviation industry suppliers and loss of them is considered a national security threat. This puts extra pressure on the Japanese DoD to select Typhoon, which is available for license production, over F-35, which is not available for license production.
 
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SlowMan       10/19/2009 10:10:30 AM
British Procurement Minister's flying over to Tokyo to negotiate the sales term of Typhoon. < link >
 
British Procurement Minister's claiming that Typhoon's cheaper than F-35.
 
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SlowMan       10/19/2009 10:21:13 AM

More problems for Japanese aviation industry <link >

 

Roughly two dozen fighter parts makers are quitting business due to lack of new orders and delays on F-X. This is considered a grave concern for Japanese DoD, which wants to preserve local aviation industry suppliers and loss of them is considered a national security threat. This puts extra pressure on the Japanese DoD to select Typhoon, which is available for license production, over F-35, which is not available for license production.


English version of same article is now available < link >
 
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sentinel28a       10/19/2009 8:07:39 PM
The Typhoon would be much cheaper than the F-35, but it wouldn't be able to do the job of multirole fighter as well.  It would, however, be a good choice for replacing the F-4, which would leave the F-2 with the majority of strike duties.
 
That said, the article is crap.  Apparently the author forgets that, while the US is overrepresented in the JASDF, the service flies a number of its own designs--until recently, the F-1/T-2 (which was built with Anglo-French tech), the T-4, the MU-2 series, the C-1, and US-1 amphibian.  The JMSDF's P-3 replacement is homegrown; the JGSDF's OH-58 replacement is likewise homegrown.  The Japanese use their own weapon designs, and if the F-2 is based on the F-16, it would be like claiming the Kfir is French because the Israelis used the Mirage as a basis.
 
His comments on the Japanese airline industry is ill-informed and little more than a sales pitch for Airbus.  If Airbus hasn't done well in the Japanese market compared to Boeing, it was because until the A380, Airbus didn't have a high-density aircraft like the 747.  Sure, it had aircraft of equal range in the A330 and A340, but both are fairly recent developments, while widebodies like the 747, L-1011, and DC-10/MD-11 series were out before Airbus had even got the A300 off the ground.  You're not going to be able to cram as many people into an A300 or even an A330 as you can in a 747, which is why JAL and ANA use 747s for their high density routes.  There's nothing wrong with the Airbus designs, but they weren't available when Japan's domestic and overseas airliner market exploded in the mid-1980s, whereas Boeing had three widebodies available alone (the 747, 757, and 767).
 
It may be true that the Japanese bought more from the US than any other country, but part of that is postwar politics (the close relationship between the two countries during and after the Occupation) and part of it was that the Japanese didn't want what Europe was selling.  The JASDF really wanted the Viggen back in the late 1970s, but the Swedes wouldn't sell, so the JASDF shrugged and bought the F-15 instead.
 
 
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SlowMan       10/19/2009 11:54:38 PM
@ sentinel28a

> It may be true that the Japanese bought more from the US than any other country, but part of that is postwar politics (the close relationship between the two countries during and after the Occupation) and part of it was that the Japanese didn't want what Europe was selling.  The JASDF really wanted the Viggen back in the late 1970s, but the Swedes wouldn't sell, so the JASDF shrugged and bought the F-15 instead.

Times changed two things are different.

1. Hatoyama "I hate America" Yukio is in power.
2. Japanese DoD must select a fighter that is available for license-production now, or risk losing Japanese military aircraft supplier base. This leaves Japanese DoD to choose from Typhoon or F-15FX/SE.
 
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sentinel28a       10/20/2009 2:31:07 PM
More than likely they'll choose Typhoon, and they'd be right to do so, no matter who is in charge.
 
 
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maruben    F-2   10/25/2009 9:59:56 PM
The Japanese use their own weapon designs, and if the F-2 is based on the F-16, it would be like claiming the Kfir is French because the Israelis used the Mirage as a basis.
 
 
The development of the Japanese F-2 depended on huge amount of extra-assistance from the US side. Several times people from General Dynamic had to come here to help our local team to fix many things.
I am not sure but I can not recall any action by Dassault to help directly the design, construction and production of the Kfir in Israel by sending its own staff.
Sadly our local talent needed more help from the US to accomplish their goals than the expected one when the tasks and works of design and construcction were assigned and divided between the US and Japan teams.
 
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SlowMan       10/25/2009 11:43:13 PM
@ maruben

> it would be like claiming the Kfir is French because the Israelis used the Mirage as a basis.

Well, Kfir is a knock-off of Mirage III.
 
> The development of the Japanese F-2 depended on huge amount of extra-assistance from the US side.

Well, Japanese didn't want US involvement in F-2; it was forced upon them by US administration.

> I am not sure but I can not recall any action by Dassault to help directly the design, construction and production of the Kfir in Israel by sending its own staff.

So you are not aware of history behind Kfir. It is to Mirage III what J-11 is to Su-27, a knock-off fighter.

But it doesn't matter, F-X is about license producing an existing fighter, not developing something new.
 
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MK       10/26/2009 12:55:13 PM
It's not just that the japanese didn't wanted the US being involved in the F-2, they were actually pursuing their own design, a delta/canard fighter, before the US applied pressure and forced them to base a new aircraft on an existing type. Even the Tornado was considered but rejected and LM is involved in the production of the F-2 and holds quite some rights, so the situation is definitely different to that of the Kfir.
 
I have to disagree that the Typhoon wouldn't be able to perform as a multirole fighter, it certainly will be capable to perform a broad range of missions if related weapons are integrated and given the current delivery schedule of the JASDF the Typhoon should be multirole capable enough to complement the F-2, if that would be actually required.
 
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YelliChink    maruben    10/26/2009 3:04:07 PM
The military acquisition strategy of JSDF doesn't make sense most of the time. Probably because the military conform to what industry want them to buy, not the other way. For example, why do JMSDF buy those neutered flattops? Why JGSDF approved develop and production for 35mm SPAAG? Why do JMSDF throw away subs that still has 20 year service life (if put in the right hands)? I see the whole F-2 project not too far away from industry mismanagement. JASDF had better just bought F/A-18E/F to fulfill the mission. F-2 is not a bad plane, but it is not designed based on original mission requirement. It is rather the result of bureaucratic choice than actual mission requirement. It is wrong to choose F-16 engine and aerodynamics as the base to develop a multi-role fighter that focuses on anti-ship mission from the beginning. One engine solution is wrong for a fighter that will mostly operate feet wet. Had they chosen with two F404, with upgrade option of F414, JASDF would be buying more to replace F-4EJ now. There are a lot other nuances about Japanese military acquisition. Simply name a few: Type 90 production, Type 74 chassis, Type 96 FOGM, Type 64 rifle (and it's propellant reduced ammo) and perhaps some destroyers with almost no air-defense. I don't know how they've been gotten away with that for so long?
 
Don't get me wrong. I think Koreans aren't making much sense either.

 
 
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SlowMan       10/26/2009 3:41:41 PM
@ YelliChink

> For example, why do JMSDF buy those neutered flattops?

Japan currently cannot have aircraft carriers because they are currently classified as an offensive weapon thus banned by the peace constitution. Japan requires the reclassification of aircraft carrier as a defensive weapon by the US State Department to own them.

Having "helicopter carriers" that are more like the real thing between each iteration(Oosumi -> Hyuga -> 22 DDH)  is Japan's way of slowly building up its case for real aircraft carriers and reduce resistance from its neighbors.

> Why do JMSDF throw away subs that still has 20 year service life (if put in the right hands)?

So that they could bring those subs out of retirement to instantly double their submarine fleet strength to 36 units in the event of a war.

> JASDF had better just bought F/A-18E/F to fulfill the mission.

Super Hornet wasn't available in the 80s.

> It is rather the result of bureaucratic choice than actual mission requirement.

It is a result of a diplomatic compromise between the US and Japan. At the time, Japan was recording a massive trade surplus against the US and the US was threatening various forms of trade sanctions against Japan, so Japan had to give into American demands.

> It is wrong to choose F-16 engine and aerodynamics as the base to develop a multi-role fighter that focuses on anti-ship mission from the beginning.

And Japan didn't. The US forced Japan to take F-16.
 
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sentinel28a       10/27/2009 3:39:53 AM
The Kfir has very little relationship to the Mirage III.  It has different avionics, different aerodynamics, different weapons load, and a different engine.  The Mirage III has a multimode radar.  The Kfir didn't until the C.10 upgrade.  The Mirage III was designed as an interceptor.  The Kfir was designed for low-altitude strike.
 
They're both deltas, but there the relationship ends.  You may be confusing the Denel Cheetah with the Kfir--the Cheetah is indeed an upgraded Mirage III, retaining the same basic design and engine.
 
 
 
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StevoJH       10/27/2009 4:11:13 AM
@ Slowman
@ YelliChink
> For example, why do JMSDF buy those neutered flattops?

Japan currently cannot have aircraft carriers because they are currently classified as an offensive weapon thus banned by the peace constitution. Japan requires the reclassification of aircraft carrier as a defensive weapon by the US State Department to own them.

Having "helicopter carriers" that are more like the real thing between each iteration(Oosumi -> Hyuga -> 22 DDH)  is Japan's way of slowly building up its case for real aircraft carriers and reduce resistance from its neighbors.
 
Nothing stopping them from changing their consitution, they've been slowly modifying the defense section as it is. The recently announced larger "DDH" if fitted with the appropriate equipment and strength deck would make an Ideal carrier of the F-35B (similar concept to CVF). Doubt its anything to do with the US State Department, unless you can *prove* otherwise.

> Why do JMSDF throw away subs that still has 20 year service life (if put in the right hands)?

So that they could bring those subs out of retirement to instantly double their submarine fleet strength to 36 units in the event of a war.

Saves the cost of a midlife update and allows their sub building industry to maintain a non-stop and steady construction rate.

> JASDF had better just bought F/A-18E/F to fulfill the mission.

Super Hornet wasn't available in the 80s.

It is an option now though, but i'm not sure how it would compare with Eurofighter as an Air Defense/Air Superiority fighter. At the moment i'm guessing its a better strike platform though (since thats what the RAAF bought it for).

> It is rather the result of bureaucratic choice than actual mission requirement.

It is a result of a diplomatic compromise between the US and Japan. At the time, Japan was recording a massive trade surplus against the US and the US was threatening various forms of trade sanctions against Japan, so Japan had to give into American demands.

For F-15? Wouldn't surprise me.
 
> It is wrong to choose F-16 engine and aerodynamics as the base to develop a multi-role fighter that focuses on anti-ship mission from the beginning.

And Japan didn't. The US forced Japan to take F-16.
 
The US can't "Force" Japan to do anything though, they can use the stick though (sanctions). The US would have a very hard time defeating the Japanese Militarily on their own soil in the air or at sea (not sure if they could do it actually).

 
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sentinel28a       10/27/2009 4:15:03 AM
From what I understand, there was no "force" involved, but I doubt I'm going to convince SlowMan of that short of using a sledgehammer.
 
The USN could take on the SDF and win, but it would be one nasty fight.  Sounds like something out of Silent Service, or as it's better known, "Why didn't I just rent hentai and get a better plot?"
 
 
 
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SlowMan       10/27/2009 10:54:10 AM
@ StevoJH 

> Nothing stopping them from changing their consitution

Reclassification of aircraft carrier as a defensive weapon is a lot faster and easier than a constitutional revision.

> Doubt its anything to do with the US State Department

Yes it does. The US has to reclassify aircraft carrier as a defensive weapon before F-35Bs could be fielded on 22DDH. Japan expects to get that reclassification once Chinese aircraft carrier enters service.

> Saves the cost of a midlife update and allows their sub building industry to maintain a non-stop and steady construction rate.

Funny how Japan doesn't do that with surface warships.

> For F-15? Wouldn't surprise me.

For FSX. Japan wanted F-15 and began license producing them earlier. Japan did not want F-16, since it was single-engined and too small for their requirement.

> The US can't "Force" Japan to do anything though

Surely the US does everyday.

> they can use the stick though (sanctions).

That's forcing.

> The US would have a very hard time defeating the Japanese Militarily on their own soil in the air or at sea

Japan's SDF is structured to be a division of US forces in Japan. Hatoyama wants to change this by kicking Americans out of Japan and turning SDF into a regular military.

@ sentinel28a

> From what I understand, there was no "force" involved

You understood wrong.
 
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