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Subject: The F-22 Mud Fighter
SYSOP    7/4/2009 6:50:54 AM
 
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gf0012-aust       7/5/2009 5:16:42 PM
Sounds like another reason why 60-80 more would extend the fleet's capabilities.

there are multiple issues here.  one is the example now publicly hilighted that the block upgrades have hardware delimitations to consider.

the second is that the latter block upgrades still have "hardware embuggerances" that effect the entire fleet.  to gte around this requires a fundamental redesign of some critical components. - the issue for Lockmart is how they want to continue spiral development - or do they bite the bullet and self fund a new development which would impact on all assets.

in very real terms, that would mean 3 different F-22's based on hardware issues.  that also means that doing a fourth variant for export is highly unlikely - even if someone else agreed to share the tab.  at a logistics and support level, its a headache waiting to happen.

again, I can't provide open source detail - but I'd point out that for the last 9 months I've been alluding to development and future build issues with the F-22.  Some of that how now publicly come to pass albeit under the spin of enhanced capability (which in rough terms is true) - but the public sleight of hand demonstrates an engineering issue if people bypass the fluffery of the media release.

 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    GF reply   7/5/2009 9:37:28 PM
As far as I can tell the only thing we really disagree about is the JSF program. We both seem to think more F22s would be a good idea for the US and that exports of the F22 are not going to happen. Where as I believe the JSF program will be cut and you seem to believe it is too important to cut significantly, owing to the international participation the program is supposed to be based upon. The very reasons you and I dislike Gates (and by extension his masters in the White House and Congress) is why I have every confidence the JSF program will be functionally destroyed within 12 months. They will make it look like our partners pulled out or find another excuse to justify the termination, but terminate it they will, IMV.
 
A political administration whom would turn on its international partners like these have will consider themselves to be under no obligation to live up to the JSF program's agreements. We will see as it plays out. I can tell you it looks an awful lot like 1976 right now with a socialist US Congress and White house utterly gutting the US military because they don't like them and they believe the use of force is always the problem and not ever the solution.
 
Allot of good work will be rolled back and allot of people around the world will die or be enslaved because of this.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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gf0012-aust       7/5/2009 10:31:49 PM
rocky,

I fundamentally agree with youm except for as you say, which way JSF will go.  From a partners perspective,  and from what we see from the USAF overall program manager, they're fully committed. UAS is a golden mile away from fulfilling core missions, and the integration issues are not trivial.  getting UAS to operate in prescriptive sanitised space is not the same as effecting potitive prosecution in complex battlespace.  Manned is here for a while.  IMO, JSF will be 2015-2030's F-16, F15, F/A-18 etc....

at the human level, I can't but help thinking that we're looking at an updated version of Carter.  I'd like to be wrong, as I have personal high hopes that Obama can rebuild some of the relationship malaise that has occurred over time with other countries.  But, people, like countries have motive, and political intent is often far removed from public portrayal.
 
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LB    F-35   7/5/2009 10:44:56 PM
It's difficult to imagine F-35 being canceled just from a US point of view.  The USN could buy more F/A-18E/Fs short term but the USMC has serious issues with it's V/STOL Harrier force and it's fleet of F/A-18s (does not fly E/F) and EA-6Bs.  The requirement for a new aircraft to replace the entire fighter and attack aircraft fleet exists now.  That is 450+ USMC F/A-18s and AV-8Bs.
 
For the USAF the issue is even more compelling.  They have not bought a new F-15 or F-16 in more than a decade.  There is already an avalanche of aircraft retirements in the pipeline.  Killing the F-35 would mean the USAF getting much smaller rather quickly and shedding many hundreds and then thousands of F-15 and F-16 aircraft.  There would be no choice in buying more F-22s and a new program would then have to be created.
 
The F-35 actually is what the US Army tried to do with FCS- create a program too big to be canceled.
 
What probably will happen is the cost will rise to the point where nobody can afford the numbers of airframes they originally wanted.  The F-22 at $140 million will be seen as a bargain compared to the F-35 especially given relative capability in the areas the F-22 excells.
 
In any case producing hundreds of these before the test program is completed was really quite beyond foolish.  Any problems that do arise have to be redesigned, retested, and then the production can be modified to produce the new change and they can mull over backfitting the change to the hundreds already produced.
 
The Administration is not going to kill a program so central to the future of the USAF, USMC, and many of our allies and make itself look like it's destroying the future of US military aviation.  Hell they're trying to accelerate the program and buy even more before the test program is completed.  Even were the Administration feeling politically suicidal and really wanted to kill the program it's a Congressional non starter.  It's not even turning out to be that easy to kill the F-22.
 
All this aside if not F-35 then a new program has to start from scratch.  We don't have that luxury of time nor any certainty the new program will be more cost effective than this one.  The USMC would in any case make a VERY strong effort to keep the F-35B given it's bet the entire farm on it and intends to have no other fighter or attack aircraft in it's inventory.  Good luck killing Marine Aviation.  There are 20 years worth of articles predicting the MV-22 would be killed. 
 
 
 
 
 
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gf0012-aust       7/5/2009 11:44:51 PM
again, from an outsiders perspective who has the advantage/disadvantage of not being polluted by a comprehension of internal politics, the issue with the block development problems of the F-22 reinforce that the USG/USAF will parallel the "USN 1000 ship navy" concept into JSF.

each day makes it more likely.... 
 
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Herald12345       7/6/2009 5:37:50 PM










One reason for doing this is that first 63 F-22s






built are not able to handle another upgrade that will enhance






air-to-air performance.







 







For the less technically qualified, what does this mean?

















Its not upgradeable.










Herald




Herald,

 

I kind of figured that part out, what I would like to know is why. What sets it apart from F-15/16/18 series upgrades and will those first 63 be training/research aircraft. I really can't see the AF getting their moneys worth out an non-upgradeable aircraft. Sounds like another reason why 60-80 more would extend the fleet's capabilities.

The Block 30s are still better than anything else out there for the air dominance role. What you read here is that the computer networks for the first 60 or so birds are not easy to REWIRE to take the software and coding changes that the new telemetry and weapon interfaces require. That was a design BLUNDER. Newer avionics are supposed to be able to take the coding changes, inside the distributed computer network as SOFTWARE UPGRADES and simple card change-outs.
 
1970s solutions run into the 21st Century headon.
 
Blame LOCKMART solidly for this one.
.
Herald
 
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gf0012-aust       7/6/2009 7:34:20 PM
The Block 30's also have an identical hardware problem to the earlier batch. 

The software issue is over and above the existing system hardware delimiters 
 
 
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cwDeici       7/7/2009 6:09:51 AM

As far as I can tell the only thing we really disagree about is the JSF program. We both seem to think more F22s would be a good idea for the US and that exports of the F22 are not going to happen. Where as I believe the JSF program will be cut and you seem to believe it is too important to cut significantly, owing to the international participation the program is supposed to be based upon. The very reasons you and I dislike Gates (and by extension his masters in the White House and Congress) is why I have every confidence the JSF program will be functionally destroyed within 12 months. They will make it look like our partners pulled out or find another excuse to justify the termination, but terminate it they will, IMV.

 

A political administration whom would turn on its international partners like these have will consider themselves to be under no obligation to live up to the JSF program's agreements. We will see as it plays out. I can tell you it looks an awful lot like 1976 right now with a socialist US Congress and White house utterly gutting the US military because they don't like them and they believe the use of force is always the problem and not ever the solution.

 

Allot of good work will be rolled back and allot of people around the world will die or be enslaved because of this.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky


What's so bad about 1976? Had Congress become Democrat-dominated? I just checked and Gerald Ford was still president, and he was Republican.
 
Thnx
- cw
 
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cwDeici       7/7/2009 6:11:13 AM

rocky,




I fundamentally agree with youm except for as you say, which way JSF will go.  From a partners perspective,  and from what we see from the USAF overall program manager, they're fully committed. UAS is a golden mile away from fulfilling core missions, and the integration issues are not trivial.  getting UAS to operate in prescriptive sanitised space is not the same as effecting potitive prosecution in complex battlespace.  Manned is here for a while.  IMO, JSF will be 2015-2030's F-16, F15, F/A-18 etc....




at the human level, I can't but help thinking that we're looking at an updated version of Carter.  I'd like to be wrong, as I have personal high hopes that Obama can rebuild some of the relationship malaise that has occurred over time with other countries.  But, people, like countries have motive, and political intent is often far removed from public portrayal.


I'm under the impression that he's Carter, but slightly more intelligent.
 
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neiyold    Legacy F22 Issues   7/7/2009 7:18:25 AM
I have been, for some time, under the impression that the processor obsolescence issue was never fully solved.  That would seem to me to be related to a fundamental rewiring issue.  Bus limitations...  Though, now I wonder if it does not also have to do with a polytape if it is a *hardware* design problem, as I believe Herald said it was a 1970's solution...
 
And, the other legacy issue that I do not have any recollection of being backfitted to all units was the plumbing which shoved the bombs out at speeds above mach 1 or high AoA.  
 
Either of these solutions could be rolled back into the older airframes, but at a tremendous cost (especially a bus issue).  So there is my two cents and open curiousity.
 
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gf0012-aust       7/7/2009 8:25:39 AM

I have been, for some time, under the impression that the processor obsolescence issue was never fully solved.  That would seem to me to be related to a fundamental rewiring issue.  Bus limitations...  Though, now I wonder if it does not also have to do with a polytape if it is a *hardware* design problem, as I believe Herald said it was a 1970's solution...

The hardware problem that all of the F-22's is due to an 80's architecture that can't be modified - unless as I said before it basically is a new build.  ie looks like an F-22 on the outside, but on the inside is a completely different beast.  Those pushing for more F-22's either are oblivious as to the very real probems that this platform will have in sustainment at through life points, or they're ignoring it.  Eitehr way, you just can't do a component upgrade, its a systems issue 

And, the other legacy issue that I do not have any recollection of being backfitted to all units was the plumbing which shoved the bombs out at speeds above mach 1 or high AoA.  

If they can't effectively fix the core hardware issues, then the legacy plumbing and harnessing issues won't go away.  My view, is that a great plane was screwed from the start.  70's interfaces, 80's core architecture and married to 21st century digitised weapons systems.  The fact that it can clean up anything in its path says much about how good it could have been if it wasn't saddled with the core problems.  Lockmart screwed the pooch.  I suspect that the Executive  are more than aware of it and hence their rush to cap future builds.  Sustaining the existing fleet is fine, building extras in volume, having proper through life support  and critical warstocks of critical components is another story.  Again, JSF learnt some very very serious lessons about how not to get caught with architecture and interface obsolesence.  The irony is that the very testing processes that some in the old engineering fraternity have been subcutaneously contemptuous of - are some of the very reasons why JSF has a future and why F-22 will always have development limitations.  A few Defence Journos in "big name" publications should be hanging their collective heads in shame - as they obviously didn't pay too much attention over the last few years.  The tail coat draggers who have almost biblically parroted the same tosh on blogs and fan sites are even worse off. (it shows that they couldn't think for themselves and swallowed the spin a little too quickly


Either of these solutions could be rolled back into the older airframes, but at a tremendous cost (especially a bus issue).  So there is my two cents and open curiousity.

I seriously doubt it.  There are at least 3 variants running around now, and the cost to make them all sing and dance from the same page would have to be regarded as cost negative. The unfortunate irony is that this is a first rate platform that has had its wings clipped due to poor engineering.  As a rough parallel, its suffering from the same architecture problems that some submarine classes have gone through.

Add in this silly emotional hysteria coming from east asia about pretending to insist on getting access to it, well, you then have a 4th variant which would effectively render the existing platform classes "redundant"  Nobody is going to be redoing the architecture on the F-22, nobody is going to redesign he core as it means a full build.  We're not talking about board swapouts and new busses and a reharness.  It would be such a radical redesign  that it would effectively be another type.

again, the very processes that are being decried by some in the GAO and in the fan club open source debate are the very processes that are ensuring that JSF doesn't inherit the same development flaws.  The F-22 has paid big time for this.  No amount of spin changes that fact.

its a damn shame, as even with all these legacy engineering probs,  it still is the big dog.  imagine what it could have been if they hadn't stuffed up - I'd suggest that the original order stream would be alive and kicking.

Funnily enough the pseudo experts such as Sweetman and GAO has never picked up on this, but "we've" known for 5 years.  Another reason why trusting GAO's contribution to project integrity on JSF needs to be taken with more than a pinch of salt.  They've also been found wanting (and I bet they're not going to admit that they stuffed up)

  

 
 
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mustang22       7/7/2009 3:19:17 PM

This is preposterous and sounds like LM should be redesigning at their cost. Thanks for the post, if this is in fact the reality of the situation and the decision to not move forward with production is a result, I would be more supportive of the decision. I still feel that keeping the line open with another order of 20 planes would allow the option of forcing LM to find a solution. I can only imagine that the AF is less than pleased that their 350 million per plane, future air superiority fighter cannot be upgraded to take advantage of current technology. I am appalled at this information and the AF should demand a resolution.

 
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DarthAmerica       7/7/2009 3:31:02 PM

This is preposterous and sounds like LM should be redesigning at their cost. Thanks for the post, if this is in fact the reality of the situation and the decision to not move forward with production is a result, I would be more supportive of the decision. I still feel that keeping the line open with another order of 20 planes would allow the option of forcing LM to find a solution. I can only imagine that the AF is less than pleased that their 350 million per plane, future air superiority fighter cannot be upgraded to take advantage of current technology. I am appalled at this information and the AF should demand a resolution.


It did. Didn't you find it curious that LM wasn't lobbying for more F-22's and publicly shifted emphasis to the F-35? Remember when we discussed that before?

-DA 
 

 
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DarthAmerica    @Mustang   7/7/2009 3:35:17 PM

This is preposterous and sounds like LM should be redesigning at their cost. Thanks for the post, if this is in fact the reality of the situation and the decision to not move forward with production is a result, I would be more supportive of the decision. I still feel that keeping the line open with another order of 20 planes would allow the option of forcing LM to find a solution. I can only imagine that the AF is less than pleased that their 350 million per plane, future air superiority fighter cannot be upgraded to take advantage of current technology. I am appalled at this information and the AF should demand a resolution.


Lockheed Martin stops lobbying for F-22

Bob CoxThe Fort Worth Star-Telegram

last updated: June 19, 2009 05:04:57 AM

Lockheed Martin will not spend any more time and effort trying to overturn Defense Secretary Robert Gates' decision to halt production of F-22 Raptor fighter jets, a top company official said Tuesday.

After making a vigorous case for the F-22 with Gates, other senior Pentagon officials and Congress in recent months, Lockheed plans to move on and meet its commitments for other major defense programs such as the F-35 joint strike fighter.

"We had our chance to lobby this matter," Bruce Tanner, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in a quarterly conference call with financial analysts.

"We think we had a full hearing of that discussion," Tanner said. "We are disappointed by the decisions, but we will accept those and go on."

Lockheed had lobbied the Pentagon and Congress for months to counter public statements by Gates and former Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England that the Air Force did not need to buy more F-22s after pending orders for 187 planes are filled.

The company even bought ads in Washington newspapers and on bus-stop benches extolling the F-22's virtues.

 

...remember? 


-DA
 
 
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mustang22       7/7/2009 4:01:53 PM
I have seen the article and remember vividly about our discussions, never would I have believed it was a backdoor admission of guilt. They should be held accountable, bottom line.
 
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