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Subject: Why 183 Raptors is NOT enough.
Herald12345    6/28/2009 2:53:01 PM
Study results follows in next post.

Herald
 
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mustang22       6/29/2009 6:54:32 PM
The argument is not about having it both ways. Its about purchasing enough of them to fulfill a military requirement. No one knows if the ability to maintain key stealth features can be overcome to increase the current readiness rate, LM says it has a program in the works. Even at 90%, 113 planes is light, exactly the reason for the extra 60. It allows a stressed fleet to work within a more comfortable rotation, sparing the lifecycle of the planes in the end. Recently one Senator actually suggested splitting the difference between the moderate to low risk to purchase 312 planes. I couldn't agree more.
 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 7:01:17 PM

The argument is not about having it both ways. Its about purchasing enough of them to fulfill a military requirement. No one knows if the ability to maintain key stealth features can be overcome to increase the current readiness rate, LM says it has a program in the works. Even at 90%, 113 planes is light, exactly the reason for the extra 60. It allows a stressed fleet to work within a more comfortable rotation, sparing the lifecycle of the planes in the end. Recently one Senator actually suggested splitting the difference between the moderate to low risk to purchase 312 planes. I couldn't agree more.

Well the current OSD and POTUS say these numbers are enough, have the power to see to it that it is, and I agree with them. So again Mustang it seems that we agree to disagree on this issue. If the 126 combat coded planes are used correctly and only when the Raptors capabilities are particularly necessary, we will have more than enough to deal with these scenarios. If we get more, and it doesn't rob from other more needed programs, then great. Otherwise this is a done deal and the USAF needs to think F-35A.

-DA 
 
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warpig       6/29/2009 7:05:14 PM


It uses Kadena as the example, but it could just as easily be Andersen, you Ruben!


Except that not even the DF-21 will reach Andersen AFB.  Also, they assumed Kadena could be covered by "SRBMs", presumably DF-15s.   Frankly, that's what they have to assume, since the PRCs don't appear to have enough conventional DF-21s to laydown their proposed scenario of blanketing the Kadena ramps with submunitions even once.  Unfortunately for that theory, I think we'll find most/all sources for DF-15 ranges fall a bit short of reaching Kadena.  However, I for one would not rule them out since there are tradeoffs that can be made to throw less weight further, and the PRCs might be able to find a way to do something like that.
 
 
 
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mustang22       6/29/2009 7:12:12 PM

Herald,




The premise of your thread has been completely negated. You posted a flawed analysis in support of your case. The POTUS, OSD, USAF CoS, USAF Sec and most other Def Professionals that matter agree that 180 something will do, so go on ahead and get indignant and yet again fill another thread with a flurry of personal nonsense. All it shows is that 




a. you didn't do your homework




b. you are incapable of being objective




c. you are incapable of admitting error




d. you do not have the professionalism, composure or common sense to debate this as may others here do







I'll leave you to stew on that. See ya sucker.







-DA 
I disagree. If someone asked the POTUS how many F-23's he thought we needed, he would probably say I will discuss the matter with my SecDef. The SecDef is the ONLY clown who believes 180 will do. USAF Sec and USAF Cos have stated that 243 is the military requirement but acknowledged due to budget constraints and job preservation that they will not pursue more of them. As far as other top Defense professional, General Corley and Lt General Deptula come to mind as recently opposing  Gates' number.
 
 
 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 7:27:32 PM

I disagree. If someone asked the POTUS how many F-23's he thought we needed, he would probably say I will discuss the matter with my SecDef. The SecDef is the ONLY clown who believes 180 will do. USAF Sec and USAF Cos have stated that 243 is the military requirement but acknowledged due to budget constraints and job preservation that they will not pursue more of them. As far as other top Defense professional, General Corley and Lt General Deptula come to mind as recently opposing  Gates' number.

 


The POTUS has made in clear that he'll veto any bill containing funding for additional F-22's.  Again, I said the people who MATTER with regard to making the decision to fund more. It's over for all practical purposes. The F-22 has a very narrow chance of getting a few more, maybe the USAF will squeeze in a few more to replace legacy aircraft lost in OIF/OEF or otherwise before the line closes, but that's probably it. Bottom line though is that this Rand "Study" does not and did not do enough to provide support for more F-22s and the people who incorrectly interpreted it that way were properly rebuked by Rand and others. 

The PRC's are coming argument is flawed. As I explained my opinion to Phaid, F-22 proponents are going to need to do better selling this aircraft. In essence, it will have to boil down to if we do not get x number of F-22's, we will lose wars. And it will have to be something that both sides can reach consensus on. I can tell you from professional experience you don't build consensus on something like this by calling people idiots and liars. Especially when they have the last word on the matter. 

-DA 



 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 9:08:39 PM
White House threatens veto over F-22 jet fighters
By RICHARD LARDNER
Associated Press 
2009-06-25 06:18 AM
Preparing for a possible showdown with Congress, the White House threatened on Wednesday to veto legislation authorizing a $680 billion military budget if it contains money for jet fighters the U.S. Defense Department does not want.

In a statement, the White House Office of Management and Budget said the $369 million that a committee in the House of Representatives added to the bill as a down payment for 12 additional F-22 fighters runs counter to the "collective judgment" of the military's top leaders.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates wants to end production of the radar-evading F-22 after 187 aircraft have been built. Last week, in a preview of the White House's veto threat, Gates called the funding boost a "big problem."

Gates has pointed to the F-22, which has not been used in Iraq and Afghanistan, as an example of a Cold War-era weapon that does not fit well into 21st century warfare against terror groups and other elusive threats.

The F-22, built by Lockheed Martin Corp., has broad support in Congress. The primary manufacturing plant is in Georgia, but key parts of the plane also are made in Texas and California. Lawmakers have pointed to the instability around the world as a reason for keeping the jet program alive. Continued production also means jobs in areas hit hard by a weak economy.

The F-22 is a twin-engine jet the Air Force would use for air-to-air combat missions. Service officials say the aircraft can dominate wide swaths of airspace, a critical capability in areas that ground forces cannot quickly get to. Each aircraft costs about $140 million.

The White House statement came as the House was scheduled to begin debating the 2010 defense authorization bill approved by its Armed Services Committee. The legislation includes $130 billion for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and a 3.4 percent pay raise for service members.

Another provision in the House bill the White House strongly objects to adds $603 million for a backup engine intended for another fighter jet in development, the F-35. The committee says the alternative engine is needed in the event the primary propulsion system has problems that might ground the aircraft.

White House officials say the extra engine is not needed and will delay the completion of the F-35, a single-engine aircraft to be used by the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.

The House legislation, which sets the Pentagon's budget for the 2010 fiscal year starting Oct. 1, also provides $9.3 billion to protect the United States and its armed forces overseas from ballistic missile attack.

Republicans are pushing to increase the missile defense money by $1.2 billion. The minority party's leaders argue that the Obama administration and congressional Democrats have shortchanged the account at a time when North Korea poses a serious threat.

The 2010 defense authorization bill would prohibit the Obama administration from moving terror suspects being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the United States until 120 days after it gives Congress a plan outlining the risks of doing so.

 
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DarthAmerica    LB reply   6/29/2009 9:26:12 PM


Finally the mistake you seem to make is to discount the fact that air superiority is the pre requisite that allows the rest of the US military to function.  Air superiority is not a mission like any other but the premiere mission of most importance to the USA (you want to argue it's nuclear strike or deterrence fine then limit this to conventional warfighting).  If there was one area you want a robust, redundant, and world class force it's your air superiority fighter force.



 You are making one of the most fundamental mistakes with regard to warfare. It's a painful lesson the USA has been learning over and over in every conflict for the last 50 years. Air Power is not the most important mission. The is something that belongs exclusively to Infantry. After all the bombs fall atomic or otherwise, MEN with guns have to go in there and drag the enemy out of their holes whether they be enemy infantry, citizens or leadership....

 

 ...F-22's mission results can be substituted. These guys CANNOT BE REPLACED OR SUBSTITUTED BY ANYTHING. Their numbers can be reduced by making them more efficient, but ultimately this is what you need to have left over. EVERYTHING depends on if you have enough of this to give...

 


-DA 

 
 
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mustang22       6/29/2009 9:40:10 PM
Gates Has a Big Problem: Defense Secretary Robert Gates says he has "a big problem" with the House Armed Services Committee addition of 12 F-22 Raptors to the 2010 defense budget. He told reporters at the Pentagon June 18 that the reason is "because it continues the F-22 program, which is contrary to the recommendations I made to the President." However, Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), who as chairman of the committee's air and land forces panel put forth the additional Raptors, says we need them to provide "breathing room" to keep F-22 production going while debate continues on national strategy as the Pentagon works through the Quadrennial Defense Review. For Gates that debate is obviously over. In a direct slap at the professional opinion expressed recently by Air Combat Command boss Gen. John Corley that the current national military strategy requires more than 187 F-22 fighters, Gates told the reporters: "Frankly, to be blunt about it, the notion that not buying 60 more F-22s imperils the national security of the United States I find completely nonsense." With that statement, Gates not only derides Corley's judgment but also that of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz, who has acknowledged the fiscal constraints that make a smaller F-22 force necessary, but who has stated publicly that the current military requirement is for 243 Raptors. Asked when he would recommend a presidential veto, Gates said, ?I?m not going to go that far at this point.? Abercrombie, however, meeting with reporters, openly ridiculed the notion of a veto, claiming that President Obama would be uncharacteristically foolhardy to veto a defense bill over the issue of a few airplanes. Abercrombie added that, in any event, a veto would be met in a flash with an override by huge supermajorities in each chamber. (Gates press briefing transcript)
 
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mustang22       6/29/2009 9:52:26 PM






Finally the mistake you seem to make is to discount the fact that air superiority is the pre requisite that allows the rest of the US military to function.  Air superiority is not a mission like any other but the premiere mission of most importance to the USA (you want to argue it's nuclear strike or deterrence fine then limit this to conventional warfighting).  If there was one area you want a robust, redundant, and world class force it's your air superiority fighter force.










 You are making one of the most fundamental mistakes with regard to warfare. It's a painful lesson the USA has been learning over and over in every conflict for the last 50 years. Air Power is not the most important mission. The is something that belongs exclusively to Infantry. After all the bombs fall atomic or otherwise, MEN with guns have to go in there and drag the enemy out of their holes whether they be enemy infantry, citizens or leadership....




 






 ...F-22's mission results can be substituted. These guys CANNOT BE REPLACED OR SUBSTITUTED BY ANYTHING. Their numbers can be reduced by making them more efficient, but ultimately this is what you need to have left over. EVERYTHING depends on if you have enough of this to give...




 







-DA 






 

They wouldn't have even been in that position if enemy fighters were pounding the snot out of them Darth. We all know how important the boots on the ground are but there is something to be said about no American soldier being killed by an enemy aircraft since 1953. We would like to keep it that way.
 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 10:31:04 PM


They wouldn't have even been in that position if enemy fighters were pounding the snot out of them Darth. We all know how important the boots on the ground are but there is something to be said about no American soldier being killed by an enemy aircraft since 1953. We would like to keep it that way.

That's bullcrap. How many opponents have survived our bombs Mustang? Al Sadr has ZERO operational fighter aircraft. There are ways to wage war without fighters or even aircraft. There aren't ways to do it without men unless the aim is less than to control territory. I don't discount the benefit of a decent air force. It makes a huge difference and lowers the price in blood. But the suggestion that air superiority is the primary tool of war and most important is ignorant of reality. ALL other forms of military service exist to support this...

 


...All military operations are ultimately balanced around what this guy and guys like him need. As war has increasingly become a technology contest where America is accelerating away from all other nations at an exponential rate, our opponents, some of them at least, are abandoning technology and the rules that civilized nations generally follow when waging wars and are returning to fundamentals. This is why an gaggle of men in Flip Flops and Robes can wage war against the worlds most powerful military ever for a decade and still have a good chance to win. Instead of recognizing the truth, people who are entrenched in their various career paths are sucking funds and resources away from the tools we need to win both high and low intensity conflict. Again, I cannot emphasize enough, a DF-21 does not seek to dogfight, do BVR or engage fighters directly. It avoids their strengths and hits at their fixed basing vulnerability to kill them in the nest where they are vulnerable. It doesn't matter if there are 1 or 100 F-22's on the tarmac. If the Runway is gone or critical infrastructure is gone, the F-22's don't matter. If they do take off and fight, there actually has to be targets for them to engage. In the low intensity domain, cruising at M1.5 doesn't help much when your target is as stealthy as you are on the modern battlefield...

 


...Somewhere in that Bazaar is an enemy stealth bomber. Except it doesn't fly and it wasn't made at a LM Plant. It's an imported White Toyota truck with a young man holding a detonator in his pocket...


The moral of the story is that the few nations who still adhere to and wish to abide by western rules of war are not capable of facing the F-22 fleet we have. The rest have chosen strategies, tactics and technologies that make F-22's irrelevant. We have enough.


-DA 

  
 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 10:35:11 PM

Ground Forces Best: Mattis

Ground Forces Best: Mattislink style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-width: initial; border-color: initial; " />

Some people are willing to forgive the defense establishment for its zeal in pursuing high-tech solutions. Gen. James Mattis, commander of Joint Forces Command, is most definitely not one.

In a wide ranging critique of defense planning over the past decade, Mattis blasted the ?wrongheaded thinking? of recent years that led military planners to seek technological solutions to solve war?s fundamental challenges and naively dismiss war?s unchanging reality. ?We embraced some wishful thinking, we espoused some untested concepts and we ignored history,? he said yesterday at CSIS in Washington.

Mattis didn?t mention the previous Pentagon leadership by name. But it was former SecDef Rumsfeld who turned ?transformation? into the catch-all buzzword signaling the military?s embrace of a Toefler-certified digital future. Phrases such as ?information dominance? and ?Effects Based Operations? filtered into doctrine manuals. In the new American way of war, near-perfect intelligence gathered from unblinking electronic eyes would replace the fog of war that causes confusion, casualties and uncertain outcomes with predictability in American military operations.

Mattis is determined to bury that notion. ?Defense planners will not be allowed to adopt a single preclusive view of war,? he said. ?War cannot be precisely orchestrated. By its nature it is unpredictable. You cannot change the fundamental nature of war.?

The military has swung too far in its embrace of high-technology, Mattis said, using as an example what he called ?over-centralized? command and control. That over-centralization can create a ?single point? of failure, he warned. ?The U.S. military is the single most vulnerable military in the world if we overly rely on technical C2 systems.? In future wars, technical systems will be under attack and will go down, he said, so forces must disaggregate authority and decision-making to much lower levels. ?We?re going to have to restore initiative? among small units and individual leaders.

Tasked with crafting a force for the ?combatant commander after next,? Mattis is striving to prevent the military from repeating past mistakes such as ?grabbing concepts that are defined in three letters, and then wondering why the enemy dances nimbly around you.? He recently decreed that EBO be dropped from the American military lexicon. The rhetorical battle over EBO was largely between those who see troops on the ground as the linchpin of future conflicts, versus airpower enthusiasts, who believe just the right amount of precision weaponry applied at just the right point can produce, well, most any desired effect.

In future wars, ground forces — supported by aviation and naval forces — will be the linchpin, Mattis said. It is on the ground, in complex terrain, mixed in with the civilian population, where today and tomorrow?s enemy will confront U.S. forces. ?These wars will be fought among the people? we?re going to have to deal on human levels with human beings and not think that technology or tactics by targetry will solve war.? The likelihood that most wars will be of the irregular variety (I?ve noticed Mattis tends to avoid using the descriptive term ?counterinsurgency? when discussing current and future wars) will demand troops with ?cultural savvy? who know when to shift gears from one form of war to another. War is a human endeavor and so defense planning must focus on the human factors, he said.

The ?advise and assist? capability of ground forces will be key, requiring that regular forces achieve a ?seamless? integration with special operations forces. ?High performing small units are now a national imperative,? Mattis said, ?capable of operating independently at increasingly lower echelons.? The effort he envisions is not designed to turn regular forces into special forces, rather, it recognizes that the individual and the small unit are the key players on a decentralized battlefield. Fundamentally, quality becomes much more important than quantity. The vulnerable gaps JFCOM is seeking to plug are those at the small unit level, where guerrilla fighters have targeted U.S. forces over the past eight years.

Future enemies will avoid U.S. technological strengths in sensing and targeting, which is the whole idea behind hybrid threats: an enemy that will rapidly shift its posture and adapt its operations and tactics to keep U.S. forces off balance. ?Hybrid means you?re going to see a mix of conventional and unconventional? it?s not going to be in four quadrants of a DOD chart with disruptive, catastrophic, traditional and non-traditional war,? Mattis said.

While the fundamental nature of war is not changing, what is, Mattis said, is how the military will fight future wars. To get the ?how? part right, JFCOM is in the midst of a wide-ranging war game that is putting to the test its new warfighting concepts, embodied in the ?Capstone Concept for Joint Operations.? The war game?s scenarios are threat based and include fighting a near-peer competitor from a distance, engaging in an irregular campaign in a fragile or failing state and combating a globally networked terrorist enemy.

Mattis said the ?capabilities based? approach to defense portfolio management, an idea that gained popularity inside the Pentagon over the past decade, is fundamentally incompatible with American democracy, where the polity?s support for the military is essential. ?As we divorced ourselves from a threat based approach, we also divorced ourselves from incurring the support perhaps, certainly the emotional appeal to our people of why this military exists.? If the military is unable to clearly articulate realistic threats, then it risks losing that popular support, Mattis said.

While focusing on the human context and purposefully avoiding a discussion of programs and equipment, Mattis did say he sees a shift in focus from buying big costly systems to money spent on training, particularly on simulations. Strategic lift will be required to speed troops to distant battlefields and sustain them while there without the luxury of forward bases, so ?seabasing over a sustained period of time? will be needed.

 
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DarthAmerica       6/29/2009 10:41:37 PM
Now, none of this is intended to discount the huge role our air and naval forces play on the battlefield. Their missions are essential to  preferred methods of warfare. However, it is the ground component that will ultimately have to go in and finish the deal. Our ground components and the infrastructure that supports them have been in constant war for a decade or more in some cases. Our enemies are increasingly choosing their domain to seek battle because it is an area that is less technologically dependent and easier to hide from our smart and brilliant weapons. It requires a willingness to pay a price in blood. So when we purchase F-22's in the absence of a legitimate need while at the same time not providing for things that will directly address events that are actually happening, we are hurting our national security. 

-DA 
 
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mustang22       6/29/2009 11:42:47 PM
...Somewhere in that Bazaar is an enemy stealth bomber. Except it doesn't fly and it wasn't made at a LM Plant. It's an imported White Toyota truck with a young man holding a detonator in his pocket...
 
Could an F-22 with proper ISR sensors pickup on that detonator and transmit the information to a ground team or even disable it? The Raptor is far from the one dimensional Cold War relic critics make it out to be. They have barely scratched the surface on the value it will bring to all battlefields in the future. If the answer was as clear cut as you are implying, then more than a few high ranking officers should be considering a new career, but you being a soldier would likely be biased on what you have seen firsthand, while airmen take a different point of view. There are many different roads that will inevitably affect an outcome, trying to guess the right direction to take is the hardest part.
 
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warpig       6/30/2009 12:25:20 AM

So when we purchase F-22's in the absence of a legitimate need while at the same time not providing for things that will directly address events that are actually happening, we are hurting our national security. 
 


Well, yes, when that happens I will agree with you.  Until then, setting up a "either it's F-22s or grunts" argument is a false dilemma falacy.  I'd still love to see what were the next few budgetary line items in priority order above and below buying some more F-22, and see just what actually is considered by Gates to be more vital to national security that more F-22s.

 
 
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mabie       6/30/2009 12:38:15 AM
Limiting ourselves to a USAF response to a Taiwan scenario, I can't see US ground troops getting involved and fighting off the communist hordes at the beaches. So in this scenario, having air suppremacy courtesy of sufficient Raptors would provide a powerful deterrent and give serious pause to any hostile plans. My problem is still the basing issue.. its a long way to Guam and increaing the number of Raptors would allow continuous coverage over the strait but how long could it be sustained given projected numbers?
 
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